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sfm, even in it's current state, can do some impressive stuff and we are just starting to really see what it can do. it can handle some pretty high quality textures, and people have gotten some impressive lighting out of it.
Plus, it keeps getting updated with new features.
will it replace things like maya? possibly, with a few more upgrades. then again. possibly not. it still needs internal model and texture creation abilities. we will see.
We are all just a bunch of hackers when it comes to this program. Without any formal documentation as to what it CAN do, all we can do is fiddle with switches and watch for results in our renders. (who knows???)
Let's be real here, it's valves animation engine which they use to produce their game cinematics, trailer material, and some art/animations all comfortably integrated with their source game engine. If the engine sees an update to the next gen, so will SFM as they'll be using it for the next gen cinematic material. It's just a matter of time.
Essentially, the render engine powering SFM is the same engine the source engine uses in game but fully unlocked and with increased quality on various things like textures and other 3D limitations. This is what allows SFM to have such a brilliant realtime preview that is close enough to the rendered result.
Source 2 will have updated graphics, likely on par or better than newer game engines. The same applies here, SFM on Source 2 will likely have an unlocked render engine based of the same engine used in game, alongside other quality improvements. As this is the most complicated part of a game engine to create, it might be a while more before we see SFM on source 2, but I'm pretty sure it's coming unless they randomly decide to shelf SFM.
It will never really compare to full 3D packages but its end result quality should be more than enough for a very wide range of ideas while maintaining its superb simplicity and usability.
Anyway, I still maintain that all this is speculation and that to put money on it would be like investing in the futures market. We won't know until someone "leaks" something from HQ itself.
Let's wait and see what Half-Life3 looks like... (and tutorial 13-4 Pose to Pose)
Anyway, to answer the original poster: Absolutely no. Maybe indie people will use it, I don't know, but it's definitely not something those big blockbuster movie makers will switch to use. Source FilmMaker is not, and will never be, a really big great movie editing tool. It may appeal to many, since it's free, and supports Source engine game assets, but... that's about it.
Source 2 FilmMaker, though? Not likely, but possibly. That would highly depend on how amazing it'll be. Also, Pte Jack, VALVe will definitely release it (as they've "always enjoyed seeing what people could come up with" or whatever, which was why they released Source 1 FilmMaker). Maybe not as soon as they'll upgrade Team Fortress 2 to Source 2, but they will most likely within at most a half year of that. My estimate is 1-2 months after Team Fortress 2 Source 2.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ya3P3AufABI
(video i did to test the idea)
what we need is more control over it.