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https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4992988&mpage=1&key=Modified%2Ccombat%2Cvalue�
https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=5040021&mpage=1&key=Modified%2Ccombat%2Cvalue�
a) you start with a purely mathematical element - a medium tank (regardless of type) has a cv of 9 (the shown number is /100) and so on.
b) then the things specific to that battle - so this cv is altered by farigue/supply/fuel/ammo/trucks - as in the manual
c) its then altered by terrain (usually a defender bonus) and/or weather/roads
In combination that gives you the cv ratio shown as the opening odds
d) the battle opens with GS missions, these can disrupt/damage/destroy elements. Any that are disrupted or worse are set to one side - you can see how much impact this air action had on the detailed battle tabs
e) it then closes by range, from heavy artillery to infantry squad vs infantry squad
Again both these can disrupt/damage/destroy elements
While you don't get an actual cross-tab, you can find out which elements were successful, which took heavy losses and so on in the combat reports
The problem, running across this is that almost everyone of those interactions has a leadership roll. The manual tells you the rules on this but its all probabilities. Even in a small battle there are going to 100s of these, not just the combats but morale recovery, even the triggering of in battle events
Its that bit that is impossible to show as a single sensible number but it overlays everything.
edit - its also why rerunning a battle may get very different results, certainly never the same (detailed) results
The player's notes have a discussion of where the opening cv can be misleading - worth a study.
so, what has happened, you have the at-start CV driven by the elements involved (34.4 of the manual lists this in considerable detail), supply etc, terrain (incl forts) and weather.
As elements are disrupted (or worse) they are dropped from this score (disruptions recover at the end of the battle and trigger fatigue instead), defending forts may weaken (both in combat and as a result of combat), extra elements may arrive (both new combat units and assigned support units). As above, overlaying all this is a lot of leadership test rolls so the system is variable.
Other bits that matter, as above, a medium tank is a medium tank for cv estimates. But a T-34 is far more formidable than a BT-7, a decent Pzr III than a Czech P-38 and so on. So especially early game, some match ups can produce a surprise simply due to the actual tanks involved (welcome to the shock the Germans got).
Beyond this, low experience elements are more likely to become disrupted (there is a saving roll routine in the combat model), so a Soviet rifle division in 1941, or late war LW division may well be more vulnerable than its notional strength.
well as the defender, clearly terrain, to a lesser extent fortifications
as the attacker, its all about force allocation and about not running your army into the ground, clearing fatigue, regaining CPP are key to winning battles
and for both sides - leadership, not just the immediate commander but the entire chain.
As an experiment, do an attack with 3 German infantry divisions led by Heinrici - odds on you will win with some ease and probably very unequal losses. Now do the same attack with a weak commander (the bloke who starts in charge of I Corps is a good choice). If its early 1941 you'll probably still win (but maybe not) but the battle will be closer and more costly
Because its actually a very complicated combat model and tool tips cannot give you what would be required. Leadership for example is not a constant, its probable that higher rated commander will produce a better outcome, but not certain.The CV you see and make a choice of attack no attack, will change during the combat out of recognition from a myriad of reasons to something else entirely. I found what worked best for me, was to develop an intuitive feel to combat ( involving more trial and error than looking at the manual) rather than looking for a magic formula, and to me this is one of the strengths of the game design as in WW2 not knowing the other side of the hill was the rule not the exception.
You might instead try and think in terms of what odds do i need to take the hex, and what loss range should i expect from doing so, as you have noted the outcomes from doing the same attack in game are rarely repeatable and appear to be random when actually the losses are random but the winning of the hex is actually more predictable and its the taking of the hex the is the point.
Look at chapter 4 Human factors, and chapter 2 force ratios.
https://books.google.co.uk/books/about/War_by_Numbers.html?id=DudVDwAAQBAJ&redir_esc=y
What you see in game is a predictive QJM that is looking to produce outcomes that are consistent with force ratios ( combat value V combat value), to determine win loss of the hex, and losses from outcome based data that fall withing a range, hence the appearance of being random. Note in the book, the same force ratios of Germans and Russians produced different outcomes and losses.
On theory I know how the battle goes, It is clear for men that during battle elements are destroyed, damaged or disrupted and than its CV is no longer taken into calculation.I spent a lot of time reading the manual and testing battles on 7 detail message, then review battle result for hours. And nothing is clear. That just frustrating me.
I have example here:
https://i.postimg.cc/ZK8nGBTp/Battle2.png
https://i.postimg.cc/cH30f2Cw/Battle.png
The defender(Germany) has 2 strong division and 4 supports on fort 3, the attacker has 1 weak division and 3 supports. From combat details we understand that Attacker has suffered heavy casualties:
61 destroyed
194 damaged
283 disrupted
The German's Rifle Squad 40 did great job and made a lot damage to soviets. Also Infantry gun, AT gun, Mortar, Machine gun all of these made good amount of damage to enemy. From all that info which game give to us we expect that Attacker's CV would be lower due to big losses during combat. But game doesn't think that, in fact it's enormous increase like multiplied by 20 ... 19 => 455. Where is the logic of that ?!?
On the other hand Germans who suffered far fewer losses in battle(mainly from soviet air) and are on fort 3, have their CV halved. Okay let's assume that the German leader failed the checks, but what happened to all with soviet CV?
Can someone explain me all that battle please and what I miss. I lose faith in the game.
a) the defender doesn't have 2 strong divisions, they have 2 regiments, so while it looks a bit like 1-1 in numbers the Germans have a lot of rear area (support squads etc) in their formations
b) the Soviets brought a lot of airpower, yes it only disrupted 37 elements but they were most likely combat or artillery (of which you are short)
c) the German commander is a numpty, the Soviet commander is fairly decent
d) your inital cv gains from the fort (3*), the final cv shows no fort (destroyed in the retreat), that alone strips out a lot of your initial cv
so actually both sides gained a bit on their at start cv (just the German gain is offset by the loss of the fort)
cv can be modified up or down during a battle due to resupply routines, if you fail these (either leadership or not available) then the cv can drop, if you pass then sometimes what starts weak (low supply) can go up (supply arrives)
Broadly, you were unlucky. The Soviets had more actual combat elements (nature of the TOEs), that massive air commitment hurt, you had about 150 'front line' elements and the bombers took out 37. The cv calculation (in the manual as above) is very weighted to the actual fighting elements (so not support squads and not really artillery). A better leader would have probably turned it into a draw, and if so Soviet losses would have escalated.
If i was playing the Soviets, I would have expected to lose that attack unless I knew the Germans were cut off (no resupply etc), or something else applied. Equally if I wanted the hex I'd expect to attack again. So there is a luck element to this
if you rerun the turn/battle, is it the same outcome?
edit: be careful reading the disrupted line of losses, in particular an element can be disrupted more than once, or disrupted and then damaged etc
Does this help in any way? https://dornshuld.chemistry.msstate.edu/rules/wite2/23-ground-combat/
CV has little if anything to do with combat, ( but its final ratio, is used to determine occupation of the hex and thus who retreats/routs etc) it gets doubled halved and so on during the combat phase, ( iirc if it gets all its checks right it will 5 times the initial CV value for purposes of combat ) and Support units get added, so often that the end CV value you see can be several orders of magnitude different than the tool tips start out with.
In your example, your going to be told in game its a poor attack ratio, your typical Axis Reg in the example has a unit of fire in munition weight ( not how the game does it but abstracts this ) of c2tons, while a SU Division has c2.4 tons, so a ratio of 1:2 or a poor odds attack, but each SU Rocket Reg adds in c20 tons so during the combat, changing the ratio of munitions weight to around 20:1 in the attackers favour.
In your example, which is from Red war scn T1 as German and lost the city hex ( SU will always do well in Urban fighting ) to a single attack by a SU ID, but SU AI got a good outcome by having 3 rocket Art Support units added, you can always replicate that attack ( m ake sure the diff setting is the same ) by playing the Scn as the SU and doing that attack yourself, and note the out come.
Knowing how combat value works is of course important. But it is also important to remember that if you are fighting a lot, or if all depends on having that little extra edge on a fight, of if you are constantly needing to really add up all the little small bonuses to win individual battles ... you are probably doing it wrong anyway.
I say this because the game seems to be made in a way as to ask you to MOVE instead of FIGHT. I usually tend to plan my way in such a manner as to gather OVERWHEALMING forces on some points of the front, like really overwhealming to an extent that you don't even bother with calculations, and after an opening has been reached, a much, much larger ratio of troops start moving foward from there. I feel I am being successfull when I have a ratio of, let's say, for every unit engaged on the fighting that opened the gap, more (twice at least?) pass through the gap and go on to start forming an envelopment. That's the 'happy times' when encirclements are being reached everywhere with little cost.
I usually know my plans have hit a quagmire when I see myself fighting more and moving less, in other words, the fight-per-moves ratio changing, progressively coming to a point where all the sudden it's WW1 all over again. When it reaches that point.... you lost no matter what. From then on it normally doesnt matter if you are still superior in many ways, like numerical, better equipment etc, because, that Clausevitz principle that the attacker has to overcome the energy of attacking and the defender doesnt, well that kicks in and youre stuck. This game is surprisingly good in recreating history.
Just mentioned this because, it is usually at this point that I beging concearning myself with really trying to extract that extra CV drop of juice from a fruit I already twisted as much as I could, and that's when "how CV works anyway?" kind of questions start to populate my thoughts, and I start looking for threads like this!