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(games not dnd doesnt need to pretend to use d20, they can just rng freely)
Even with maxed out Persuasion, I don't feel safe using red options, as the chance of succeeding is big mystery.
theoretically the more you know the person the more you know what to tell them so i would expect you to succeed more easily with a companion since you know what tick them. With random people is a gamble unless you are extremely hot (at least in real life) and the person is not hateful vs look-ism.
In game npc can't really tell ugly from pretty so doesn't really matter
Hit the green option twice = both failures. NPC went full "im gunna kill ya!" and starting shooting.
Reloaded and hit the orange and red options. Insta success and the NPC went full "im scared of you! don't hit me!"
From what i understand, they aren't success chances, they're different speech types. Persuasive/Cautious/Aggressive etc..
It's finicky at first. Seems like a bunch of random nonsense, but once you get tier 4 Persuasion you'll be good because it's a 50% increase.
I usually start the conversation small, choosing the easy green bars. Then finish by choosing whatever I need to complete it for the win.
It doesn't always work so be prepared to fail.
Sometimes your enemies persuasion bars are very high and hard to fill. You'll have to gamble at least once for those.
And they do have crits for the insta-win.
Each round you can say one line that gives you Y amount of points ([+Y] at the beginning of each line).
The success rate of the dialogue line is given away by its colour (purely guessing, but I think it goes something like 25% / 50% / 75% for, respectively, red / orange / green.
As long as you're having success in speech checks after round 3, you can prolong the mini-game.
There are critical success but they are too random to account for.