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But at least as far as I can tell certain responses tend to work on a person more depending on the scenario.
It's a like a puzzle
I think there are probably multiple factors that get checked.
There's probably a base chance of success (increased with perk)
Then there is probably a second layer of success based on context.
Green, red and orange are also SUPPOSED to factor into success vs fail. Green being high chance, red being low
There also seems to be critical success chance that adds extra bars.
I'm sure someone out there is doing hard research on this- maybe someone on the Reddit or Discord.
+1 (Green) replies have the highest chance of succeeding, but give the smallest amount of persuasion. Yellow gives a moderate amount with a moderate chance of success. Red gives the highest amount of persuasion with a low chance of succeeding.
Edit: I also want to point out that as long as you have 1 try left, succeeding with one of your dialogue choices refunds the 1 try. So if you have 1 try left and need 3 more persuasion points to win, you could theoretically just go Green 3 times.
It's a chance game, meaning that even if you'd do only +1 green checks, there is STILL always a chance you fail, thats because your chances are rarely if ever 100%
Maybe you can stack perks, drinks, gear etc etc to increase the chances to 100% as a min-max strategy (I've never tried nor bothered), but when discounting that, you're always betting on odds to succeed a check and each level of a check has its own chance percentile.
Note: I do not know if the color of a check takes into account if you've got chance-increasing effects running at that moment, or that the color coding is more absolute and based off of the amount of persuasion increase the check provides ie: +1, +3, +5 etcetc.