Is it me, or is Persuasion not chance based?

[Little Guy]

I'm doing my very first Persuade check in the bank negotiation in Akila City right now.

Since it's the first I've ever done, I quick saved before hand and have been trying my hand at it for a few minutes to try and get a feel for it, since it's more complex than the straight up RNG of Fallout 3 or the Stat-Requirement of New Vegas.

The tutorial for it says that it's chance based, with green being easiest and red being hardest. But that doesn't seem accurate.

The guy in the bank says that they want to leave and when I get the option to say, "Aren't you just tired of being in there?" it's a yellow check and it has worked three separate times. But conversely, green options which amount to, "I just want to make sure no one gets hurt" have FAILED three times.

It feels like this isn't actually percentage-chance for success, and this NPC actually just has things he prefers to hear. He just flat out doesn't like it when you imply that you want to help everyone involved, so even a very easy check fails.

So the dialogue ISN'T actually percentage chance to succeed if this specific very easy check fails consistently, but a specific medium check succeeds consistently. Instead it's actual persuasion where this NPC needs to hear specific things....... but my OPTIONS to actually talk to him ARE RANDOMISED, leading to a couple tries where I just don't get given the options that work enough times to succeed?????

It feels very, very, very strange to get used to, and I'm pretty sure it's mostly from the tutorial message not being entirely clear, since this doesn't actually seem chance based to me.

[mackrealiv]

There are certainly factors to shift the odds in your favor, but it is still VERY random.
I've save scummed just to test it out, had green relevant checks fail while red irrelevant checks critical succeed, tried again from the save only to have the reverse happen.

[Arcion Holy Windmaster]

Persuasion needs to be fixed, none of my options in persuasion mini-game work at all and im like 80+% higher chance to win, and i even save scum and still no dice, even on the Lowest points its giving me fails

[Arcion Holy Windmaster]

their latest update has really screwed it up with everyone, and only chance i ever get a win is if it crit persuasion but cant rely on that 100%

[oak]

According to your post history this isn't a new issue for you, so no, it seems the update wouldn't be to blame.

Perhaps ask for help in a dedicated thread rather than necroing an unrelated one to complain?

[xPEDx]

Well i always choose the red ones, they work more often than any other, But that was before the Creation-Kit came out,
Now i just put on my hat that i made and its a win all the time on all colours :)

[Haldurson]

You do know that random means random. The law of large numbers should tell you that SOMEONE will eventually have 100 failures in a row, regardless of the color. Eventually. And someone will have 100 successes in a row, regardless of the color. Eventually. And, if you have enough people playing, it not only is possible that someone somewhere will have 100 failures in a row, it will almost be inevitable for that to happen. It's called the law of large numbers. If we were talking about casino gambling, with millions of people playing for hours, the odds of someone somewhere EVENTUALLY losing 100 bets in a row is close to 100%.

I know that what I'm suggesting is absurd, because none of what I said is likely. BUT, it also means that as unlikely as it is, it's possible. You might be the chosen one who will NEVER EVER EVER have a persuasion success ever in your life. It's a possibility. Just because something is unlikely doesn't mean that someone at some time will have a such an absurd run of bad luck that they will eventually decide to set fire to their monitor. I'm just saying...

BTW, I always bring this up... I was an engineering major at Caltech many years ago. And I attended a fascinating lecture by a mathematician who studied gambling. One of the interesting things that he discovered is that streaks (both good and bad streaks) are a whole lot more common than what most gamblers think they should be. It's kind of why there is no such thing as a winning gambling strategy better than staying out of the casino. If you think you are due for a win, simply because you failed 10 times previously, that's a good sign that you don't understand probability.

[Yandy]

This thread was quite old before the recent post, so we're locking it to prevent confusion.