Let's talk about PROFIT

[YeenBean]

So the game has a budget anywhere from $200 million to $400 million. https://www.neogaf.com/threads/starfield-budget-started-at-200m-final-estimate-at-400m-and-500-devs.1660457/

Let's assume the best and say $200 million. And let's believe Phil Spencer and say 6 million players (not COPIES sold... players). Now, even the fanboys say "most people are playing on GamePass!" OK, so of the 6 million players, at LEAST 3 million, according to you, are playing via GamePass.

So let's say of those 3 million who bought it, half paid $100 and half paid $70. Less than half would have paid 100, but I'll give you that one. So 1.5 million at $100 is $150 million. 1.5 million at $70 is $105 million. $255 million. 3 million players on GamePass for $10, so $30 million. And that's assuming they didn't already have a GamePass account. So we're assuming they gave MIcrosoft money specifically for this game.

The combined BEST-CASE SCENARIO is $285 million with a $200 million budget.

Given that Steam has less than 300k concurrent players at its peak for this game, and the first weekend will almost always be the top weekend for single-player games, it's pretty obvious this game has less than 3 million retail players (those who paid full price), but again, we're painting a best-case scenario picture here.

With a budget of $200 million MINIMUM, we're looking at an $85 million profit over an 8-year development period. That's a 42.5% return on investment. Over EIGHT YEARS. The problem here isn't "Well, it's profitable, so that's a win." Companies don't think like you do. They don't say "Well, it made $10 over 8 years, so it's technically a win." They think "♥♥♥♥. We could've made a billion, but we made $85 million. Who's getting fired?" And POTENTIALLY didn't even make a profit if the budget was $300 million or more. (Big budgets ruin games, btw.)

This game is a massive L. And the dropping scores show that. With the scores dropping so fast, and now being below the magical 80% (so now the game's in C territory), the sales aren't going to hold up. The bad news is piling on and becoming more public.

Why do I care? Because I want TES6 to not completely suck. So hopefully Todd finally gets fired and we can get amazing games again. Good isn't enough for Bethesda's potential.

[fauxpas]

Unfortunately company profits and losses aren't as straight forward as they used to be and the execs will point at game pass subs as a success whether or not they can prove Starfield was responsible for a gamepass sub.


So I personally doubt anything will change.

[Blackfrost]

My two cents:

- Dev time + marketing costs are reported to be between 300 and 400 mil, which makes Starfield the most expensive game ever released.

- Steam takes a 30% cut on every game sale.

- Gamepass will only provide Bethesda with a nominal fee, rest of the cash will go to Microsoft.

- Regional pricing is a thing, so the game is much cheaper depending on geographical locations.

- There are additional costs for Bethesda, such as VATs.

- Refunds are ignored in player count estimations.

It would take Bethesda somewhere around 8 to 10 million copies sold to break even.

Considering that they just announced "6 million players", I'd say that the game is likely not profitable yet.

Microsoft is likely going to squeeze Bethesda for a win, and fast.

[Dave Clarke]

You seem to be excluding any money made via increased console sales - at the end of the day - it is the 'ecosystem' Microsoft are selling, not just the game. We shall see next quarter what profits they have made.

[Aphex]

Where did all the money go? Not in the game that's for sure.

[sHuRuLuNi]

Originally posted by Aphex:

Where did all the money go? Not in the game that's for sure.

Gender-affirming care for the Bethesda employees.

[Marae]

Honestly, I'd hazard a bet that Microsoft pushed Starfield out early, not sure if they need new games or not on console.

Which would mean they also might get a new TES game sooner since more resources could be allocated to that project.

If I was truly guessing, they expected to not see big returns on a new IP carried only by their name alone.

[St✩rlight]

It's almost like you believe they won't sell any more copies. That most people don't get paid monthly, that most people who want to play the game don't have the hardware for it yet or are waiting for patches or waiting for a sale.

[Aphex]

Originally posted by ⓀⒾⓦⒾ‰:

do you just sit around thinking this ♥♥♥♥ up?

what possible relevance does this have in your life that made you type that?

It's fun.

[EleventhStar]

a large chunk of the earnings/profit is from DLC and especially Cosmetic these days. you can't just handwave that away.

[Ilja]

Problem with the original post is that it treats game as it was made by independent publisher.

ZeniMax has way more studios under it's belt than Bethesda Game Studios. Even Bethesda has more developers under it's own wing.

Let's say that one game brings in "only" 85 million dollars? Sure, they will be happy to take it. Thanks. It isn't abut single big victory game, but about smaller (if you call 85 M$ small) incomes forming a bigger profit.

Now Zenimax is owned by Microsoft, which just saw it's stock pop over 330$, after hours volume being 1.8 million trades.

There is that money coming from.

Everyone can expect new sale cycle around Q1/Q2 of 2024, when modding tools are out, glaring bugs have been ironed from content and some bad development decisions (like map, which is getting reworked) have gotten another looks.

Starfield is doing just fine.

[Butcher]

Originally posted by YeenBean:

Why do I care? Because I want TES6 to not completely suck. So hopefully Todd finally gets fired and we can get amazing games again. Good isn't enough for Bethesda's potential.

What if Todd is the only reason previous games didn't totally suck?

[YeenBean]

Thanks for reminding me this game exists...

[Vexillarius]

You can subscribe to game pass, play a game for a week then refund game pass and get your $10 back. I did it for Redfail and i got to play it for free for like 70 hours. I expect lots of those shenanigans going on.

[Random Kiwi Gamer]

If Eldar Scrolls 6 is using the same engine, it's going to suck.

[Vault Traveler]

Problem is you do not take into consideration that microsoft has more money than god and does not care for sales alone but also for making their services, franchise, IPs and studios more known and valuable.

Or else they would never started the gamepass.

Truth is what hurt xbox the most?

Yeah that pesky "no games on xbox" slander.

Thats why gamepass exist.