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Was just about to post the same thing. I don't think having seen it in action I'd pay even $30 for it right now. Still want to wait for some good Let's Plays so I can see it more in-depth, but yeah... fishbowl playfields and endless loading screens aren't my idea of a 2023 AAA title set in space.
This post will age badly
But the retail price is certainly is going to get discounted that quickly... While I cannot say the OP is objectively wrong yet, he absolutely will be and I am 99% sure of that.
This of course ignores early sales discounts like greenman gaming as well as grey market key seller sites..
I give it 20% off on black friday at most (assuming it gets discounted at all), 50% is insane and absolutely incorrect, it won't happen.
Also last I checked Starfield was 20% off on greenman gaming as well, assuming that is still true, you aren't going to get a better deal come black friday.