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If you're asking about why a 20% fails way more than it seems like it should it's because the game is actually doing 2 RNG rolls before you capture it. The first will be the listed number then it will go up and it rolls again... so a 20% chance is more like a 6 or 7% chance overall.
BUT, yes there is a "but", I don't want it to be too easy so the capture tool upgrades would not matter. I don't want it to be too easy so the effigy upgrades won't feel at all.
Capturing Pals early-on SHOULD be harder and much more of a JOB than a fun thing to do.
Mid-game it should slowly start to get noticeably better and somewhat easen up the nerves to capture more.
Late-game it should feel like it's easy and a fun hobby instead of a job. As youve upgraded a lot of capture chance with effigies, you've gotten the better if not the best tools to use, you've gotten stronger Pals to aid in the battles. It should all matter and right now it does not feel like that.
Did I understand this correctly, as in I have to carry every type of pal sphere in my inventory? Meaning that exotic sphere doesn't capture doesn't capture level 1 pals as well as well as regular pal sphere? I haven't tested level 1 pals with the exotic sphere, but some other times that higher grade sphere is pretty much a guarantee for capturing lower level pals. On the other hand, I've tested some lover level spheres on higher level pals, (those regular pal spheres are very abundant resource), and you need to throw those in tens to capture something of higher level. Not too much higher though.
Ps.
I got maxed pal capture rate through those effigies, and some time it feels like raising that capture rate actually lowers your capture chance. So not sure, but sometime it feels like it.
You probably totally neglected to increase your capture rate by turning in lifmunk effigy.
Having almost always 0% capture % mean you are defintely using the wrong ball.
I think i never seen my % under 25-30%
Also use a higher tier sphere.
Damage the target some too, a full health target is harder to catch than one at half health.
You can learn to craft a Ring of Mercy at an early level that causes all damage from the player equipped with one to leave the target at 1 HP.
Aim for the head/face as that tends to add a crit bonus to capture. Usually 10%.
Still, RNG will RNG at times. You'll throw a bunch of balls with 20% and fail, and then a weaker ball with 5% suddenly succeeds.