The shown catch chance is plain wrong

[EddyNeave]

Catch chance is consistently completely incorrect. Higher catch chances (90-100) seem accurate but anything below about 80 is just completely wrong.

The display told me 50% with Ultimate sphere, and 25% with Legendary. It took 15 Ultimate and 10 legendary to catch. If this was a one off it could of been chance but this is a very consistent experience.

I do have catch chance set higher in settings about 2.5%, and i have most effigies so the problem may be there.

[Psychotic_Frog]

There was a bug previously with the effigies which updated the label but not the catch chance, but this been fixed.

And anecdotal evidence really isn't enough. You keep a mental note of the time it took 15 tries at 50% (and that's gonna happen once in 32k throws) but don't really notice the 15 times in a row you got it on the first try, you're naturally biased.

If you want to be thorough, keep note of every throw and every outcome for ~10k-100k throws without missing one and _maybe_ then it could be conclusive.

[EddyNeave]

Originally posted by Psychotic_Frog:

There was a bug previously with the effigies which updated the label but not the catch chance, but this been fixed.

And anecdotal evidence really isn't enough. You keep a mental note of the time it took 15 tries at 50% (and that's gonna happen once in 32k throws) but don't really notice the 15 times in a row you got it on the first try, you're naturally biased.

If you want to be thorough, keep note of every throw and every outcome for ~10k-100k throws without missing one and _maybe_ then it could be conclusive.

You misread my comment. It is consistent. I have been mindful since i noticed it the first day of the newest update. I have since caught I estimate 40 pals minimum, which has been consistently apparently incorrect. Yes it could be a fluke but when something is that far off it should be checked since game dev is about the feel not the stats.

Like i mentioned it is possible but after the "luck" i've had with it since this new update it has been apparently completely off. Now i could go away and throw 10k-100k spheres like you suggest but i have better things to do and don't get paid for such wasteful activities so i'm not wasting my time. The displayed chances feel wrong and it's far easier for the devs to have a quick check of the code or spend a couple hours coding and running a simulation than me wasting months throwing spheres.

[IchigoMait]

Do 100 pals, with 50% catch rate, then do an average of how many balls it took to catch all the 100 pals (total ball amount and divide with 100)
Fyi the catch rate doesn't mean that the previous throw counts, there is even a chance that someone would never catch something with 99% catch rate, it's just very improbable.
You would have to do 1000 pals or 10000 pals or more, to see if the catch rate is wrong or if something else is affecting it.

[Gakm4]

I have felt that my catch rate has been a bit too low as well especially with the crit bonus added in.

When I took the module off and avoided crits the catch chance felt like an accurate representation.

[Naii Starwing]

I see these guys consistently breaking out of an 80%. There is no way that 1/5 is hitting that often. Either the shown percent is wrong, or there's some unshown malus that's being calculated in that I'm not aware of.