Are catch rates messed up?

[CandL]

Im not talking about how the preview catch rate changes when you throw the ball. Im talking about Pals escaping 92% balls 10 times in a row. Not just as a freak display of bad luck, it keeps happening. So my question is is there any evidence that the catch rates we are shown are flat out wrong? Because late game as it stands is awful due to the resource expense to produce ultra-spheres only for a level 34 Surfant Terra to escape 10 of them.

Also some seem to be pal specific? Dinossom Lux and Surfant Terra seem extremely resistant to catching despite their catch rates being the same as Dazzi or Rayhounds that I have captured at rates that actually seem to match the displayed one.

[jhiddle]

I haven't seen that issue myself, I've had one 90% miss and I was surprised by that one. I often times throw 5-10 at a 5% catch and land it. What is your effigies level?

[THANKS OBAMA]

It takes a long time to establish discrepancies in 8% success rates failing or not really.

[♥♥♥♥ *****]

Bro is mad that he is unlucky

[Jenkem Junkie]

I read a post earlier that seemed pretty convincing. The basic idea is that only the percentage from before you throw the ball is the actual catchrate. The one you see after the pal is inside the ball is just telling you how close it is to being caught.

[Kackstift]

Boss Pals are harder to catch. epic and legengary Pals are even harder to catch. you should use status effects like paralyse or ice block to get better results.
i have not seen any wrong numbers.. sure i "lost" a few 98% catches but on the other hand i won a lot of 15% catches.
btw have you upgrade your catch rate per power statue?

[Red Bat]

I've been getting that vibe that the catch rates don't stack up with what we see, but I'm not about to toss 1000 spheres and write down results to find out, especially since I'm not even sure how it's calculated.

For example you see a 2% catch rate when targeting a pal and as soon as the sphere hits it shows a 12% catch rate and I end up having to throw 20 spheres to catch it, so I'm not sure if I'm absurdly lucky or slightly unlucky as I don't know which number means what.

I've also had to toss 15 spheres at the same pal with a 52% catch rate several times, but I'm not sure if the catch rate is displaying correctly or if I'm just not remembering enough successful catches to really parse the data in my head in a way that would cause me to realize that the catch rate's fine and I'm just overly remembering being unlucky.

In my experience, it's actually incredibly rare for a game to display odds of success incorrectly, and usually when RNG does act in a way that isn't displayed properly to the player, it's because it actually fudges the numbers in the player's favor without them realizing such as in the new XCOM games.

[Jenkem Junkie]

Originally posted by Red Bat:

I've been getting that vibe that the catch rates don't stack up with what we see, but I'm not about to toss 1000 spheres and write down results to find out, especially since I'm not even sure how it's calculated.

For example you see a 2% catch rate when targeting a pal and as soon as the sphere hits it shows a 12% catch rate and I end up having to throw 20 spheres to catch it, so I'm not sure if I'm absurdly lucky or slightly unlucky as I don't know which number means what.

I've also had to toss 15 spheres at the same pal with a 52% catch rate several times, but I'm not sure if the catch rate is displaying correctly or if I'm just not remembering enough successful catches to really parse the data in my head in a way that would cause me to realize that the catch rate's fine and I'm just overly remembering being unlucky.

In my experience, it's actually incredibly rare for a game to display odds of success incorrectly, and usually when RNG does act in a way that isn't displayed properly to the player, it's because it actually fudges the numbers in the player's favor without them realizing such as in the new XCOM games.

Like I said earlier, I'm pretty sure the reason this happens is because only the initial percentage actually matters. There's a 2% chance you'll catch it, regardless of how close to being caught it gets.

[Ishivas]

It's possible that the wrong value is being displayed. The percentage you see while aiming a ball is different from what you see when you hit a pal with a ball. Maybe the capture power bonus isn't applying correctly.

Also the 2-tick capture system makes it less intuitive on what your actual capture rate is.

It's all speculation without gathering data or looking at the code though.

[Zinkr7x]

Originally posted by CandL:

Im not talking about how the preview catch rate changes when you throw the ball. Im talking about Pals escaping 92% balls 10 times in a row. Not just as a freak display of bad luck, it keeps happening. So my question is is there any evidence that the catch rates we are shown are flat out wrong? Because late game as it stands is awful due to the resource expense to produce ultra-spheres only for a level 34 Surfant Terra to escape 10 of them.

Also some seem to be pal specific? Dinossom Lux and Surfant Terra seem extremely resistant to catching despite their catch rates being the same as Dazzi or Rayhounds that I have captured at rates that actually seem to match the displayed one.

I keep forgetting to pile up evidence, but I think that is the case. I notice it too.

[Rezonus]

Originally posted by Bagguette with an F:

Bro is mad that he is unlucky

Nah there is something wrong with catch rates. Someone posted a video of them failing a 97% catch 3 times in a row.

[DarkFenix]

Originally posted by Jenkem Junkie:

I read a post earlier that seemed pretty convincing. The basic idea is that only the percentage from before you throw the ball is the actual catchrate. The one you see after the pal is inside the ball is just telling you how close it is to being caught.

That... actually seems fairly likely. I scoffed at the naysayers regarding catch chances, but I'm also getting the feeling the numbers don't add up, now that I'm having to make lots of late game captures. Whatever the chance is, from 15% to 50%, it almost never captures at or below the average number of balls that should take.

I think the ball UI needs a redesign for clarity's sake if nothing else. We need a displayed chance and a separate indicator of capture progress. Then there can be no ambiguity as to what we're seeing.

[Holgast]

Originally posted by Jenkem Junkie:

I read a post earlier that seemed pretty convincing. The basic idea is that only the percentage from before you throw the ball is the actual catchrate. The one you see after the pal is inside the ball is just telling you how close it is to being caught.

that makes a lot of sense but is rather confusing. we just thought that the extra rate that appears when you put it in the ball is modified after your lifmunk bonus

[McReesington]

The initial chance you see then seemingly gets the catch bonus from the green statues added, though I haven't checked if it adds up. I'm fairly sure it's saying there's an x% chance to pass this stage, then there's a second stage which it has it pass as well, which is maybe halfway between the first and 100%

It has seemed that some high level changes get broken out of way too frequently by lucky pals and some more general strong pals (I think Nightwing is one who breaks out of high chance catches repeatedly)

[Misaky]

Originally posted by Holgast:

Originally posted by Jenkem Junkie:

I read a post earlier that seemed pretty convincing. The basic idea is that only the percentage from before you throw the ball is the actual catchrate. The one you see after the pal is inside the ball is just telling you how close it is to being caught.

that makes a lot of sense but is rather confusing. we just thought that the extra rate that appears when you put it in the ball is modified after your lifmunk bonus

I tested looking at the rates of the balls with a friend, against low level pals, I already had effigy at level 10 and he still had it at level 5.
Our rates were very different, so the rate that shows up before trowing already has the bonus.
Just a side note, against high level bosses, we had same rates >_> but i'm assuming its because it the rate was so low and it was showing rounded numbers.

[Alluboy]

Originally posted by Red Bat:

For example you see a 2% catch rate when targeting a pal and as soon as the sphere hits it shows a 12% catch rate and I end up having to throw 20 spheres to catch it, so I'm not sure if I'm absurdly lucky or slightly unlucky as I don't know which number means what.

I've been wondering about this as well. Is it possible that the initial catch rate (when you're aiming the sphere) is just your default catch rate without any bonuses from the effigies and the % you see after you throw the sphere is your actual catch rate? Or maybe it's the other way around, I dunno. I haven't really trusted any of the numbers I've been seeing.

One way to test it out would be on a random full health Pal, see what your % are before and after throwing the sphere, then do an upgrade and return to that same Pal and try again.