Whats going on with catch percentages?

[kl250d]

It feels like the percentage display isnt accuracte as I find myself very, very frequently on the sides of impossible odds.

There is only so many times that i can get a string of 6+ fails with a 50% catch rate before it gets suspicious. Its not even like the other half the time I'm catching instantly. Most of the time when there is a 50% chance shown it takes 3-4 attempts.

I'm just wondering if the percentage even means anything

[kl250d]

Originally posted by CritMasterFlex:

Originally posted by kl250d:

I dont think you all get that its so statistically unlikely to consistently happen that it means something is probably wrong with the calculation

Spoken like somebody who has never had a truly horrible evening of sub 10 D&D dice rolls.

If i was talking about a 5% catch rate i could understand missing a vast majority of pokeballs, say even 19 out of every 20.

But I'm talking 50%. And yeah someone who is ok at math will come in and say thats just statistics but probability exists for a reason. You wouldnt give something a probability unless there was a degree of confidence behind it

[kl250d]

Originally posted by Belmont:

Welcome to how modern day education has failed humanity.

Someone needs a crash course in how percentages work.

Everyone knows how percentages work. You just dont seem to know how to apply them

[Grackle 🐦🐦🐦]

Catch rate AFAIK goes like this:

Take a base percentage (ex. 50%).
To catch the pal it's gotta pass two rolls, the first is the base and the second is the base + 1/2 the base
In the previous example the first roll is 50%. If you fall the pal escapes, If you succeed it rolls again for 50%+25%=75%
If you fail the second roll the pal escapes. If you win you get the pal!
The overall chance of passing both rolls is what you see displayed before you throw the ball.
The formula is the base catch rate times 1/2 the base catch rate.
In this case it'd be 50%*75%=37.5%.
hth

[Bruhtato]

When it comes to programming, random numbers are not 100% random. Probably has a lot to do with it.

[aY227]

You have 0.015% chance to miss 50% 6 times in a row :)
But it's not only that - happens a lot earlier, when you can catch Pals with waaaay to low chances.

[kl250d]

Originally posted by Grackle:

Catch rate AFAIK goes like this:

Take a base percentage (ex. 50%).
To catch the pal it's gotta pass two rolls, the first is the base and the second is the base + 1/2 the base
In the previous example the first roll is 50%. If you fall the pal escapes, If you succeed it rolls again for 50%+25%=75%
If you fail the second roll the pal escapes. If you win you get the pal!
The overall chance of passing both rolls is what you see displayed before you throw the ball.
The formula is the base catch rate times 1/2 the base catch rate.
In this case it'd be 50%*75%=37.5%.
hth

Mate im not even talking about the second roll. Second roll ive got no issue with. I havent had an inordinate amount of pokemon break out. When the second roll says 75%, then about 75% of the time it gets caught

[Moloxia]

Look at all these smart people expertly stating to OP how percentages work, explaining statistical anomalies happen frequently and its all in his head... Stop reading Sir Terry Pratchett books, folks; million to one chances don't crop up 9 out of 10...

@kl250d; right now many people are experiencing weird values, stating the higher level (and content) they are/do and the more they upgrade the Green Effigies, the worse the odds seem to be, even when pushing to highest spheres possible.

Its likely the math to catch a pal vs player level has a diminishing return and so the content outscales you. Will probably be looked at. Its not just you, don't worry.

[awanderingswordsman]

Anyone else had weird lag on the second shake of very low capture rate? Ever since I started using ultras catching the 40+ pals and bosses, the second shake has like half a second of lag just before success or failure. It doesn't happen on lower level pals with higher chances. On success it lags the most, being almost a whole second of the sphere thing freezing.

And while game RNG is not real random, it shouldn't be a factor in something as basic as this. The only edge case would be like a 0.01% chance where the success sequence of 2 RNs might actually not exist in the RN chain. That doesn't seem to be the issue here.

[angelsenvy228]

Originally posted by kl250d:

I dont think you all get that its so statistically unlikely to consistently happen that it means something is probably wrong with the calculation

We understand that but unless you are going to give a table full of data from a large sample size to try to statistically show the % is way off, saying "I feel like it takes too many throws" isn't going to move anyone. The same thing was posted constantly on Baldur's Gate 3 about the dice rolls. The likeliest scenario is you just have a run of bad luck, for as many others are catching them with no problem. To me it seems about right, sometimes I have bad rolls and very often I cap from 40% on the first try. You're just asserting the game is coded wrong based on your tiny subjective sample size of balls you notice fail..

[kl250d]

Originally posted by awanderingswordsman:

Anyone else had weird lag on the second shake of very low capture rate? Ever since I started using ultras catching the 40+ pals and bosses, the second shake has like half a second of lag just before success or failure. It doesn't happen on lower level pals with higher chances. On success it lags the most, being almost a whole second of the sphere thing freezing.

And while game RNG is not real random, it shouldn't be a factor in something as basic as this. The only edge case would be like a 0.01% chance where the success sequence of 2 RNs might actually not exist in the RN chain. That doesn't seem to be the issue here.

Yeah i started getting the second shake lag yesterday when i started using the legendaries

[kl250d]

Originally posted by angelsenvy228:

Originally posted by kl250d:

I dont think you all get that its so statistically unlikely to consistently happen that it means something is probably wrong with the calculation

We understand that but unless you are going to give a table full of data from a large sample size to try to statistically show the % is way off, saying "I feel like it takes too many throws" isn't going to move anyone. The same thing was posted constantly on Baldur's Gate 3 about the dice rolls. The likeliest scenario is you just have a run of bad luck, for as many others are catching them with no problem. To me it seems about right, sometimes I have bad rolls and very often I cap from 40% on the first try. You're just asserting the game is coded wrong based on your tiny subjective sample size of balls you notice fail..

It happens too frequently to be bad luck. Nobody defies odds like that repetitively for hours every day

[Crunchy[Daz]]

It seems like the percentage displayed is taking into account the Sphere used against the level of Pal its against. It doesn't seem to take into account any sort of species specific resistance to captures.

[Lapom]

First time? RNG is a ♥♥♥♥♥.

[Zyfodeus]

What the catch rate actually is a big pile of RNG, even though it says 50%, you fail it all the time lol even with Hyper Spheres and above.

[kl250d]

Originally posted by CrunchyDaz:

It seems like the percentage displayed is taking into account the Sphere used against the level of Pal its against. It doesn't seem to take into account any sort of species specific resistance to captures.

Yeah a level 40 is a level 40 to the game. I think the only thing that might effect it to increase, when i get a headshot and they stagger, if i time it right the likelyhood shoots up to near guaranteed