Capture Rate is not accurate and anyone who tells me otherwise is a gaslighter

[SpaceDrive]

This ♥♥♥♥ can NOT be accurate. Lvl 3 Pals at 1 hp gives me a 95% catch rate with a blue ball, which fails at LEAST 3 times EVERY SINGLE THROW. I have to use multiple balls on every pal regardless of catch rate. If it says 75% catch rate, you know I'm using minimum a dozen greens. 50% might as well say 1%. And it's not confirmation bias, this is the case almost 100% of my catch attempts. Maxxed out Lipmunk Shrine bonus, using the correct balls depending on the pal level (up to reds for lvl 30s), no way the capture rate it shows is true. There's something going on behind the screen that makes it drastically lower than it appears. If you tell me it's normal for you then you are gaslighting me and I won't fall for it.

[Zinkr7x]

Originally posted by Winblows:

this is the problem with rng, you can have the best luck or the worst luck. rng just assumes the average person has a average time, but what happens when you dont have a average time? its either really good or really bad. they should just hard code if you try to catch something x amount of times then it will just auto catch. some one out there has a 99% chance of catching something and is gona fail 5 times in a row. i swear to god i only get 50% chances a quarter of the time. wtf does it take 4-5 times to capture something with a 50% chance so often in games so often?

No the rate is more than just "that's RNG" baby. Some of the odds of failing can be extremely over odds. It's just not realistic to think one could be that unlucky all the time.

[Khergit Horse Archer]

ive failed a 70% catch like four times consecutively and a 70% -> 90% catch

maybe im just super unlucky or maybe the maths is voodoo magic

[kl250d]

I'm convinced that the people spouting "its just statistics" probably walk around with helmets on at the unlikely chance that a small chunk of a building or tree falls on their head.

You know, cause if its statistically possible to happen then its definitely going to happen to you repeatedly within an hour

[sen]

what exactly is your problem?

95% does not equal 100%

...

even 99.9% can fail every time.
your numbers also seem pretty far-fetched. frustrated child

[Arestris]

well, while unlikely it's not impossible to fail three times in a row with 95% chance (actually like the other side, sometimes you catch a pal with 5% chance with one or two spheres).

But well, it's an early access title, I'm pretty sure many things will be changed / adjusted (actually even more than once) in the following developement process of the game anyway.

[Zinkr7x]

Originally posted by sen / 皇帝:

what exactly is your problem?

95% does not equal 100%

...

even 99.9% can fail every time.
your numbers also seem pretty far-fetched. frustrated child

The catch rate doesn't seem to accurately reflect what's being shown to you at any point, it takes far too many balls to catch something at like a 30% catch rate for me. Obviously it's not guaranteed, but it's that I have a 1/3 chance and it takes more than 12 balls, and this is something that has happened to me multiple times. The odds of that happening are 1/530000 or so, roughly. How do I keep getting 1/530000 odds

(Edit: Hey I bad mathed here, it's only a 1.39% chance to miss that many times, significantly higher than a 1/530000. I'll have to come back with more info, I think the rates do seem off but ya know, hitting a 1/100 chance isn't that uncommon in this scenario.)

[DirtyMick]

Damn, that is weird as hell. Haven't experience that at all. Might want to try verify integrity of game files or something.

[Crunchy[Daz]]

Please show the statistics of your catching attempts, with actual data not just hyperbole. Its not that bad, at all....like, not even close.

[Carpe Noctem]

It is 100% incorrect. I've been playing games with percentage rates for two decades, and never had an issue like this where 90% can fail 10 times in a row on every creature.

[Metalkicker]

Originally posted by SpaceDrive:

This ♥♥♥♥ can NOT be accurate. Lvl 3 Pals at 1 hp gives me a 95% catch rate with a blue ball, which fails at LEAST 3 times EVERY SINGLE THROW. I have to use multiple balls on every pal regardless of catch rate. If it says 75% catch rate, you know I'm using minimum a dozen greens. 50% might as well say 1%. And it's not confirmation bias, this is the case almost 100% of my catch attempts. Maxxed out Lipmunk Shrine bonus, using the correct balls depending on the pal level (up to reds for lvl 30s), no way the capture rate it shows is true. There's something going on behind the screen that makes it drastically lower than it appears. If you tell me it's normal for you then you are gaslighting me and I won't fall for it.

I'd have to agree. If the Capture rate was correct then normal orbs would be from 1-10, Maga 10 - 20, and so on. But the capture rates are absolutely atrocious after 15 for the pals you are attempting to capture.

[Shazza]

I have to agree with the karmic dice comment earlier in the thread; when you've got hundreds of thousands of players all playing without interacting with the discussions board (so, not posting about their catch rates), you're gonna get some people rolling inconsistently who then post about that luck difference as fact.

I'd say it's still worth investigating, especially given the confirmation that Memory Wipe Medicine screws with the stat - there might be other factors that make it objectively worse for some people based on data we don't have access to.

[Kriya Takagi]

Originally posted by Monsoon:

It is 100% incorrect. I've been playing games with percentage rates for two decades, and never had an issue like this where 90% can fail 10 times in a row on every creature.

i have its call pso2's augment enhancement counter with npc Dudu and monika

[Vanessa]

Originally posted by lozacenz:

Percentage chances equate to actual results only in sample sizes in the tens of thousands or more. Streaks are absolutely a thing in actual random numbers (if you get a set of 'random' numbers that is large enough to be representative and that includes no streaks, someone's been fiddling with the randomiser or the output).

Which is to say, even leaving aside any other factors... It's entirely possible that you might just be having REALLY bad luck. After all, 75% chance means that, in a sample size of 10,000, 2500 attempts will fail, and if the numbers are actually random you could well be getting a decently large chunk of those 2500 failures all at once just due to randomisation.
(which is why gacha games and loot boxes with single digit percentage chances are an absolute scam, just by the by. 9,900 failures and 100 sucesses if you make 10,000 rolls... and even without tampering those successes may well all be backloaded (and you Know they tamper with them, if sometimes honestly and in the player's favour).

Not to say that's definitely what's going on, but it is entirely possible.

(edit: assuming this is even a random chance issue in the first place, of course.)

The chance of failing a 75% chance 12 times is 0.000006%.

For this to happen ONCE you'd have a decent claim as one of the unluckiest bastards to have played the game so far, to have already happened multiple times to multiple players is sheer mathematical lunacy.

When we're talking potentially 1-in-a-trillion to 1-in-a-quadrillion odds at these patterns occurring, the chance of the displayed chance to catch being wrong is so ASTRONOMICALLY higher that to even CONSIDER it being just bad luck would be to completely misunderstand how probability works. We've a better chance of both of us getting struck by lightning and killed in the next few hours.

[Weyrling]

Say you get a 20% and it jumps to 60% then 100%:
I think the way it works is that you had an 80% chance to fail, then a 40% chance to fail, in this case the overall probability of success would be 12%.
Which is to say, it might just be displaying the chance of it "not breaking out this time", rather than the absolute probability of success.
That said it's hard to make a conclusion without data, and when you can burn through hundreds of spheres in an hour it's not unrealistic to get some really crazy results.

[MyuFoxy]

Originally posted by Vanessa:

Originally posted by lozacenz:

Percentage chances equate to actual results only in sample sizes in the tens of thousands or more. Streaks are absolutely a thing in actual random numbers (if you get a set of 'random' numbers that is large enough to be representative and that includes no streaks, someone's been fiddling with the randomiser or the output).

Which is to say, even leaving aside any other factors... It's entirely possible that you might just be having REALLY bad luck. After all, 75% chance means that, in a sample size of 10,000, 2500 attempts will fail, and if the numbers are actually random you could well be getting a decently large chunk of those 2500 failures all at once just due to randomisation.
(which is why gacha games and loot boxes with single digit percentage chances are an absolute scam, just by the by. 9,900 failures and 100 sucesses if you make 10,000 rolls... and even without tampering those successes may well all be backloaded (and you Know they tamper with them, if sometimes honestly and in the player's favour).

Not to say that's definitely what's going on, but it is entirely possible.

(edit: assuming this is even a random chance issue in the first place, of course.)

The chance of failing a 75% chance 12 times is 0.000006%.

For this to happen ONCE you'd have a decent claim as one of the unluckiest bastards to have played the game so far, to have already happened multiple times to multiple players is sheer mathematical lunacy.

When we're talking potentially 1-in-a-trillion to 1-in-a-quadrillion odds at these patterns occurring, the chance of the displayed chance to catch being wrong is so ASTRONOMICALLY higher that to even CONSIDER it being just bad luck would be to completely misunderstand how probability works. We've a better chance of both of us getting struck by lightning and killed in the next few hours.

Go watch gambling if your of age and look at the roulette table. It is common to show the last 25 to 100 numbers that won. You'll see streaks of red and black of 5 to 15 long are common. That's a 52% to lose if always betting the same color. The Palworld bet is 70% chance to lose, the streaks would be longer, like if playing 1/3 of the roulette. I forgot what that bet is call but there's lots of roulette stats so you can get the picture.

None of you should gamble, only watch. It is painfully clear many of you don't have an intuitive grasp of probability and will lose all your money.