Capture rates are SEVERELY bugged.

[PHE]

I've had two different strings of 7 failures with hyperspheres on an 84.7% chance. That's a chance of 1 in 40,000+, multiple times. In just the last hour. I've also had multiple sequences of 2 to 3 95% chance failures. (1 in 400 each to 1 in 8000 each, respectively.)

I don't know if it's the hypersphere being bugged. I don't know if it's the mob levels not being properly reflected. I don't know if its the statue bonus not being applied. Maybe it's a visual bug for the capture rate.

All I know is this isn't fun. Fix it, please.

[FreakGeSt]

In probability, 99% is not 100%, and 0,1% is not 0%, people really don't understand probabilities, can even occur over 10 times in a row, not because is rigged or bugged, is because probability is that, never a guaranteed if not say 0% or 100%

[Dracoco OwO]

Originally posted by FreakGeSt:

In probability, 99% is not 100%, and 0,1% is not 0%, people really don't understand probabilities, can even occur over 10 times in a row, not because is rigged or bugged, is because probability is that, never a guaranteed if not say 0% or 100%

Well probabilities still make 0 sense in many of these instances, we are talking about peoples losing 97% odds over ten times in a row.

[Kuroki]

i tend to catch stupid low rates more that get unlucky

[Dracoco OwO]

Originally posted by Kuroki:

i tend to catch stupid low rates more that get unlucky

Honestly same getting jetragon at 4% chance? Easy.

[CaB_SKC]

Originally posted by DarkFenix:

Originally posted by CaB_SKC:

It's not about individual incidents it's about the fact that in 80% of all cases it is the case that they break out with an 80%-95% probability of being caught, which cannot be the case if it has been programmed properly

And there's an 80% chance that at least 75% of the words coming out of your mouth are more than 95% bull****.

An RNG isn't hard to program or implement, and they're really quite reliably random nowadays.

Once you start looking at the correct number, capture rates suddenly seem to add up a lot better. It's the UI that's the problem, it misrepresents your capture chance with the progress bar.

Now I'm noting that where I thought I had a ~50% chance and was failing many times in a row, instead I had more like half that chance. Capture chances in general are pretty damn low in the mid-late game, meaning you should go in expecting to have to burn a lot of balls. On the other hand, those chances being lower than expected also make that random 1% capture more pleasing, I'd say in general always open with a too-weak ball, just yesterday I grabbed a level 49 boss on a 0.8% chance with the first ball, one I only threw to delay it while I messed around cycling to the appropriate ones.

I don't know what's your problem but whether the wrong percentages are displayed or whatever it has everything to do with the programming and even if the RNG is ok you certainly can't know that ! so don't write so omniscient and try with childish arguments in an adult discussion, if you are a masochist and like it then it's your thing but don't justify clear wrong catch probabilities with the fact that you get one off when it doesn't stay in despite 80% - 95% in most cases.

[PHE]

I can't believe how many bottom-feeding midwits are here posting "people don't understand probability," while not understanding probability. Stop posting and rid us of your stupidity.

TL;DR: Sequences of chance are exactly how probability is determined. You're much dumber than you think you are. Things are bugged. Period.

[Zizel]

As mentioned in another post, there is a confirmed bug with effigies. If you level your effigies capture power beyond 4 a bug will trigger which drastically LOWERS your catch rate instead of raising it.

It is a known issue and is supposedly being worked on.

[Rhyono]

Every single one of these threads always goes like this: Someone gives some degree of data and statistical probabilities for it to occur.
The replies: So you're telling me there's a chance.

[Garble]

I can't say for certain what the bugs are or what is causing it but I've had a number of bad strings, most I chalked up to bad RNG but one was particularly egregious that there's no way there isn't something bugged.
Whether effigies just aren't working or actually make it worse, or the displayed capture chances are incorrect, something's definitely off.

[DigitalBoy]

Yes there are bugs with the capture rates not working properly.

[Paranoia]

Originally posted by PHE:

I can't believe how many bottom-feeding midwits are here posting "people don't understand probability," while not understanding probability. Stop posting and rid us of your stupidity.

from my experience, the odds of steam forum users directly addressing the topic at hand without derailing it with irrelevant BS is close to 0.

You can be as precise as possible, but someone is going to interpret what you said differently and the rest of the thread is going to parrot them.

Originally posted by Zizel:

there is a confirmed bug with effigies. If you level your effigies capture power beyond 4 a bug will trigger which drastically LOWERS your catch rate instead of raising it.

I had a theory it had something to do with effigies but i had no idea it actively hindered you. I just assumed the bonus wasn't being applied correctly.

[PHE]

Originally posted by Zizel:

As mentioned in another post, there is a confirmed bug with effigies. If you level your effigies capture power beyond 4 a bug will trigger which drastically LOWERS your catch rate instead of raising it.

It is a known issue and is supposedly being worked on.

This is a week-old thread I started, I only just now had the chance to call everyone who deserved it an idiot.

[Unlucky]

I've known for quite a while that catch rates were bugged, and I kept meaning to post in a topic like this but I kept forgetting...

How do I know? Well.... because the game gives me two different catch rates for the exact same Pal. One percentage when I'm aiming the ball at them and a different one when it is first pulled into the ball...
The one shown to me when aiming is always LOW and the one shown when they first pop into the ball is always HIGH.

I've watched some Youtubers play the game and this does not seem to happen to anyone else I've seen. So there is definitely something funky going on with this game, specifically regarding catch rates... lol

..... Btw.... So uh, which one of the two numbers is the real one? From my best guesses... Neither.
The actual catch percentage, from my knowledge of statistics, seems more likely somewhere in the MIDDLE, between the two that it is showing me.
... But if either of them IS 'real', I'd have to say that the LOW one is more accurate as the higher one is simply just unrealistically high and I KNOW for a fact that I am not catching at those rates.

I haven't done any exact calculations to test it because things are so obviously bugged I figured I would just wait a few patches and see what happens. Anyway, all I can say for sure is..... It is definitely 100% bugged.

[BAEBLADE]

those odds are entirely possible as you point out yourself. Low rates =/= bugged.

[PHE]

Originally posted by BAEBLADE:

those odds are entirely possible as you point out yourself. Low rates =/= bugged.

On their own. Not multiple instances in the same session. I know reading is hard, but try to keep up. It's bugged, and you're dumb.