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Sorry for the unhelpful reply, I'm just suffering too haha.
Make sure you're making use of the large range of food buffs. Stuff helps a ton.
Hard mode doubles enemy damage and increases their health by 50%. You're supposed to feel squishy on Hard Mode because the idea is to be getting hit less and being more methodical about your progression.
You best defense is not getting hit though and mage + minions are the best combo for that. You can stay on range with your weapon and if you hit the enemy even once with that, minions will keep firing at them for a while, even if they are offscreen of out of the range where they would even still try to attack you. Off-hands can help a lot too. If you have a wooden shield, you can hunker down behind that on against ranged attackers or dash away with the Swift feather from copper chests and creates or the later the Rift Lens,
Minions also have the capabilities to shoot down most enemy projectiles with their own. If you run away from enemies (even in a straight line), the bats will often position themselves between you and them and often act like a wall if they are not overwhelmed. Chieftain pants for the attack speed + the bonus summon cap helps a ton with that.
Your best defense with that build is still to always keep moving. Enemies are basically incapable of hitting you and enough range if you move sideways. They do not have movement prediction at all.
Enemies do actually lead shots now. I've had it happen with spear throwers, caveling shamans, and even Malugaz was doing it. The crossbows are harder to gauge cuz their shots are so fast, so I typically just ensure I'm behind something when they telegraph.
It is not a 100% protection against all projectiles in the game, but it can be helpful against many still. The best action is still to just not be in the path of the projectile. Either run sideways or as you said: hide behind something. Minions will often stay out of cover and keep shooting at the enemies too. Their DPS is low, but even on hard they can kill things on their own before it rushes your cover.
I Malugaz projectiles and fireballs in general might be immune to being shot down. Not sure about the lead shots, but not all projectiles can be destroyed. Caveling spears and bubbles definitely can be (and especially with the bubbles minions are a blessing). The 3rd minion type is imo pretty much designed as a shield.
I'm not talking about the bat chaff strategy. I mean that if you're running sideways, the enemies seem to try and predict your movement about half the time. Or there might be a range condition or something else. It doesn't always happen, but ranged enemies definitely try to lead my movements sometimes when they attack me.
I can not confirm that. I just tested a bush sniper again and they just fired to where I was standing when the the shot started flying while I ran in a completely straight line with no direction change slightly at an angle from them. My guess would be that you were maybe standing too close for the projectile speed. Malguz hits me on like 5m range still, but on 6m I can just run in a circle and never get hit once.
If it feels different than the past (which I did not experience), they might have changed it so they calculate where to shoot when the projectile leaves their model and maybe before that calculated the path when they started the shooting animation, which would mean they are coming much closer to you now even if you are moving quickly. Fast traveling projectiles like the ones from the bush snipers definitely come super close.
For melee it seems the devs want you to abuse movespeed to kite mobs. It doesn't work well until extreme late game weapons.