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Basically stats are about half the equation, the other half is the direction you're leaning, every hold requires you to put in direction input if you want any success to keep the hold or breaking out of it.
Look at the hold as it happens, if you are applying the hold you need look at what youre doing and pull the control stick in the direction that will make it hurt more (you can see when you're doing it by watching the health bars), if you're being grappled then you want to lean away from that direction.
some holds can be reverse by leaning in a direction that isn't one of those two direction, but only some.
Another thing that seems to modify rolls is the adrenaline bar, i've noticed that if you have alot more adrenaline than the other person you're more likely to keep the hold.
Another thing that matters alot is how tired each person is. If you try to put a hold on someone after beating them for like 5 mins you're gonna be too tired and they're gonna reverse it because they've been spending the last 5 mins not wailing on a dude.
All of the above seem to affect the rolls, if you play thoughtfully you'll find you can easily put the npcs into 30 sec holds even if they out stat you (i'm currently doing a play though on very hard with only manual training with my stats starting at 60, once i hit 65 on stats i was able to start winning matches with carefully timed holds, I obviously still lost most matches until my stats hit the 70s).
The game looks kind of dumb and simple but there seems to be a fair amount of stuff under the hood while still keeping it all pretty light.
edit to add i'm unsure if button pressing does anything in a hold. I think it may help when you are being held but not when doing the hold.
second edit to say if you're spamming grapple then yeah of course your letting them go. pressing grapple is how you release a hold... don't press a button when you're grappling because the buttons do things when you're grappling and they are never "keep the hold". If you are applying the grapple then only lean to make it hurt and learn which holds have which leans. some holds let you attack, don't attack randomly unless you dont intend to keep the hold as that will let them break free faster.
very last edit to add that the direction you're holding also influences the type of reversal. there seem to be some reversals that trigger off of leaning INTO the hold but that also means making it hurt alot more for a bit so i wouldn't advise doing them.
TLDR: this game isn't a button masher, you really only mash to get up when laying down and to kick out, and maybe to help trigger reversals or break outs on holds.
the way the CPU applies most holds, this means that generally speaking, mashing for a ring break like this is "giving into the hold," it's going in the same direction the attacker is holding. so, it becomes a kind of risk vs reward thing: "am i close enough to mash for the ropes, or is there a chance i'll tap out before i get there?"
yeah this is what i meant and figured, i knew it doesn't help when you are grappling but when you are grappled. at first i didn't press anything because i misunderstood and lost a slew of matches that way.
and thanks for the clarification on the second bit as well, its what i figured was happening because its very obvious the cpu knows when it can lean towards the hold cause they can flip them that way more often than i can lol (at the harder difficulties at least)
Anyway, moving the stick in the right direction will make them them submit sooner BUT it will also make them escape sooner. Whereas if you're being grappled, you want to move the stick in the opposite direction from that. This is usually not toward the ropes and in fact moving toward the ropes is often the same direction as they are pushing to make the move hurt more. Reversing the move is another facet, and the direction you move the stick is usually different from the one you need to move it to break out. And you counter the reversal by pushing in the opposite direction from that.
So with them reversing or breaking out of moves, how do you get them to submit? You use a submission that can't be reversed, or is hard to reverse. How do you stop them from using the rope break while still putting pressure on them? You use a move that gets them off the ground so they can't move you to the ropes. And finally, how do you get them to tap out without making it easier for them to break out? You use a move that is really hard to get out of and hurts a whole lot.
The best submission therefore, and the most broken move in the game, is the Romero Special. There's no getting to the ropes, no reversing, and hurts like hell without you even moving the stick.
Now, they can still break out of it, and will eventually if you don't crank it. So how do you crank it without making it easier to break out of? You push the stick in a direction only for a second or two. You let them struggle a bit then crank it again.
Usually what I do is slam them around until I get adrenaline, nail them with a finisher, then put them in the romero special. I barely have to crank it and they're screaming.
Everyone gives a different reasoning, which may or may not work. In the end, you just do random stuff and when it works or at least you think it works, it goes to your confirmation bias, so you always do that and get annoyed when it doesn't work.
I stopped caring about the intricacies of this game and just played for fun and embraced chaos, that is my suggestion.
> 1,249 hrs on record
You weren't kidding.
what does the game do when only players are in a match?