xG vs goals scored

[tacodudeRTR]

I am on an 8 game winless streak during which I've accumulated 11.19 xG, while scoring 0 actual goals. Is this discrepancy realistic?

[Istiompλx]

it is yes... it just means that you have many very weak shots on the enemys goal or your strikers doesnt feel like using his chances

[Mythrix]

My personal experience is that teams in fm2022 (including me) generally score far more goals than predicted by xG so your streak appears incredibly unlucky.

Not sure if the xG is all that accurate generally. One of the big ones for me is headers from outside the six yard box. xG tends to give those as 0.05 (5%) yet I'm pretty sure less than 1 in 20 goes in - indeed short of having a jumping/heading 20 you will never score them.

So you might need to change the type of chances you're creating. Personally I have a lot of luck with counter attack in this game, using maybe a target man alongside a super quick strike partner, or an excellent playmaker playing through balls quickly on the break to again a super quick striker. That tends to lead to goals > xG.

[Istiompλx]

As an real life example, West Ham has an xG of 23,79 while only scoring 15 goals this season. Or even better AS Roma, they got an xG of 34,90 but scored just 23 goals this season.

[Cervidal]

Was literally going to post the WHU example on seeing this thread as I am about to watch what may be Moyes' last game.

[Melon]

xG means nothing irl, it's just stat nonsense. in game I guess it could be important

[Cervidal]

Truly spoken my someone who doesn't like analytics

[Lucky]

Originally posted by Joro:

xG means nothing irl, it's just stat nonsense. in game I guess it could be important

This. Its a completely pointless and made up stat. Any stat that is based on something that is not quantifiable ("big" chances, "good" shots etc) is just made up as its opinion based.

[tacodudeRTR]

But it IS based on something quantifiable. It's not based on 'big chances' or 'good shots', at least not in the way I think you mean. Basically, It's telling you how likely a shot is to go in, based on a large sample of shots that have been taken from that location before.

[Shower]

It depends. If you have Darwin Nuñez is completlly nromal

[Centipede]

It happens to me a lot as well. I believe the XG does not accurately reflect the match engine probabilities. In my case, I have a lot of chances from headers but few hit the goal and few are difficult for the GK.
I'd say this is information that you can use to understand that what you are trying to do should work on paper but is undervalued by the match engine in your current circumstances. You can either stick to your approach and refine it, or make the decision to change your tactic to generate less XG for more goals (for example shoot less/ work ball into box). Depends if you want to give up your own preferences to adhere to the 'meta'.

[billyboyp]

thats actually histerical u must be poopy at the game lolers

[tacodudeRTR]

:(