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I gave it a try, but I'm not going to do it. There's just too much to say, it's unbearable even for me. Hope you found what you were looking for at Alien's rock's.
Honestly, if you really want to improve, I still think going the other way around and recording your own runs for people to pitch in would be immensely more fruitful. That way you can get advice that applies to you specifically and won't have to hear about everything you've already figured out. ;) Edit : if it's the early rents you're having most trouble with, I get how it can feel uncomfortable to upload failed runs. But those are typically the most helpful to look at.
Don't think crabs have ever worked for me either. Less payoff than cultists, fewer item synergies, although they're a decent early pick and might contribute more than a failed cultist run, plus feeding them to diver.
I've (barely) made the 13 cats work exactly once in over a thousand runs. And to be fair, I only went that route because of an early Copycat essence (and possibly Tommy the cat, or whatever it's called). In the end it didn't matter. Probably doesn't ever unless you're playing endless, as committing to picking every cat will either make you lose, or win for other reasons anyway.
Crabs do work for me faily often though. Probably more than cultists to be honest. While I still strongly believe in cultists, I've been skipping them slightly more often, due to how many runs have been lost on them.
Wow! That's interesting, as I approach most these things quite differently. I'd be curious to hear OP's thoughts about it.
Yes, birds are very slightly better than other early picks. On average, Owl gives 1.33 and Crow/Magpie 1.25, so typically around 50-60 extra gold through the course of a whole game (possibly less depending on when you pick it). Compared to Anchor's 1.8 and D3's 2, that's really not a lot.
I usually prefer dwarves, gamblers, keys, lightbulbs and other things over that. Will pick to fill the board, and most often skip once I've got less than 4-ish empty spaces.
Now an early birdhouse turns all of these into very decent fillers, and even a little beyond that (I tend to keep picking a few 2-gold items after filling if I didn't find lots of 1.5+ symbols or something decisive like Coal. Typically that's been successful, for me at least.)
Most importantly though, Birdhouse Essence is great, mainly because there's so many birds it's really easy to trigger. Similarly to Wolf Essence, it won't win on its own, but still, it makes a big difference. I'm gonna go ahead and digress about that : King Midas + Triple Coins.
That literally wins the run on its own if you put it together soon enough, as a board filled with 3-gold symbols isn't enough to pay later rents on itself, but if you have it before rent 8-ish (just my distant experience speaking here, haven't done the math), that'll build up enough savings to win regardless. On the other hand, get it a tad too late, and you're guaranteed to lose.
To that extent, Birdhouse essence is like a mini-Midas combo. Not as radical, but safe. And the minimum +6 income you get from that really adds up and gives you a lot of time to either find more birds or another win condition.
Now Dove is super good. Effortless scaling, what's there not to love. Chickens on the other hand, I almost never pick. What's to take out of the Midas analogy is that proliferating 3-gold symbols usually won't work, 4-gold proliferating symbols will often work, and 5-gold always will (btw that's what makes Frying Pan so good). So basically, the only things that make Chicken worth picking for me are Birdhouse Essence, Chicken Coop, and Frying Pan.
Now about Sloth, to me it's the single symbol that is both decent to pick on its own and is made significantly better by Checkered Flag. So it's kind of rare that I even pick the flag in the first place, haha. And Beastmaster is an undesirable rare in my book, unless you really have a lot of beasts (so boosted wolves, chickens or birds, or several eldritch creatures), but the 20-ish% chance for two symbols to connect (did the math at some point, don't remember but it was around 20) shouldn't justify the bloat if you have only one or two good beasts. Once again now, that's my opinion. Hope I didn't bore you away, haha.
I did the Midas thing recently, it's an interesting one for sure. I guess you have the whole game to look for one last boost (ie an adjacency payoff item) so there's that. I actually found a Pirate toward the end (so in theory he could eat 3-8 coins each turn, allowing Midas to show up more consistently) but the landlord disabled him almost immediately.
Chickens are interesting because taking an egg too early can and has lost me the game. But there are a lot of synergies for them, so if even one shows up I'll take an egg and hope another shows up before they breed and overflow the board. Egg carton being a very profitable way to abort the gameplan.
I had a run where multiple sloths showed up, and then checkered flag showed up, and then multiple beastmasters showed up, and it was great. Don't know if it could really be called a strategy though. But each step flows safely into the next, so I keep my eye out for it.
The odds are 18% and a bit iirc.
I'll have to try the birds sometime.
And as you mentioned, taking it shortly after the auto-win threshold is probably fine as a last resort, as Triple Coins essence and/or Rusty Gear can still come in and save the day. If you know you won't make it if you don't try, it's certainly worth it.
I've personally grown very wary of Eggs, and I prefer never to take them before I secured a Frying Pan or Egg Carton. Finding the optimal approach seems possible, but you'd have to factor in transformation chances and all the related items' drop rates to different degrees based on their impact, plus everything your current board state implies... I do like math, but not that much. ;)
And to elaborate on Beastmaster, and other non-scaling rares, my approach is that I want them to bring me at least 6 gold/turn on average by the end of the game, otherwise it's probably better to reroll. (Usually anyway. If it's very early or a specific situation, I'll settle for a Golden Egg for example, or even a 3-gold symbol)
Now the thing is, since beasts are typically not high impact, I don't want to have to pick more of them to make an early Beastmaster worth it. I feel similar about Witch and Farmer, Chef being a tad better because of drinks and their own great sets of synergies.
Dame, on the other hand, never disappoints.
(Huh. Did the math again, and I'm getting ~29% for two symbols to connect. (4*3 + 10*5 + 6*8) / 20 -> 5.5 neighboring slots on average for a given symbol. Divided by 19 possible positions for another given symbol -> 0.29. That's higher than what we both had in mind. Did I forget something ?)
No yeah that's right, I misremembered
- After paying rent 9 (when 650 gold is due on your next payment), I like holding on to the free removal token. That way, I can get a second one after rent 11, and I have two for the landlord fight, so I'm sure I can remove the fine-print Hex of Destruction even if the fine print that makes symbol removal cost two tokens occurred. With a thin deck and several high-income symbols, that can make the difference.
- Unless it's absolutely necessary, don't use Swapping Device Essence and Oil Can Essence every turn. Ideally, you only want to use them for really big turns (e.g. Bear eats Honey). Swapper essence is especially cool if you have a dwarf, as you can wait until they naturally connect with a drink, and swap their positions, so that you can get 4x income.
On a sidenote, I've reached my own conclusions about cultists. I still pick them over 1-gold symbols, but not over 2-sided dice, or even birds most of the time. Too risky, picking them aggressively is bound to destroy win-streaks sooner or later.
Crabs on the other hand are much more reliable.
Thanks for all this - I've taken a long break from the game but might get back into it soon.
I do the exact same thing as you with the 650 payment where I save one (or two because of boss doubling removal cost) removal tokens for the boss fight if I can.
That swapping device/oil can essence tip is awesome, I never thought of doing that. Those essences are absurdly powerful in any situation but that tip makes them even better.
I probably already said this but I'm pretty aggressive about picking early cultists. I feel like it rarely tips the balance in terms of making the board bad and if you just get those first 3 you're golden. I agree that there's certainly merit in taking 2-sided dice instead depending on the timing and how your board looks. I also agree that crabs are a little more safe.
Taking long breaks personally gives me a lot of perspective. I did that too and came back to the game about 2 months ago. Got stuck at a desperately steady 50% for a while, but now my winrate is higher than ever. :)
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3150100624
Edit : I checked on Discord, and apparently that's a new record. Feels good!
So after the massive choice and before you spin, you can use items like Adoption papers or Lunchbox and still benefit from it. Doesn't guarantee very rare symbols will show up, but everything else is represented, so it's an easy +3 crabs, rabbits, pears, or whatever you're looking for. (Doesn't work with credit card essence)
Other than that, I don't think I've mentioned it, but I've been skipping a lot more early on than I used to. I used to always pick something when I had more than 5 empty slots, but I realized I can be pickier than that. Now it's not unusal that I'll pick a milk or even a bubble as soon as rent 1. So OP was right about that, I think.
On the other hand, I've entirely stopped picking cultists after I hit 18 symbols, and now immediately remove them if I only have one when I hit 21.
(On that note, I think when you have a frozen fossil, it's almost always ok to pick a cultist/hex only to remove it immediately, especially early on. I used to try to play the longer game and hold on to my tokens, but accelerating FF has been a lot more successful for me)