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Your best bet is to produce an overabundance of food and slowly grow into your overproduction over the months so you can watch when the surplus is starting to drop and compensate with added production.
Depending on my starting regions fertility, I typically make 3x 1 morgen plots for vegetables which gives me ~600 a year. All housing from that point, with the exception of 2 for brewers and 1 for cobbler, get animal pens and sheep until I reach a point that hides are remaining when the next batch comes in at which point all remaining plots go into pigs for meat.
If I have high fertility as a region bonus, I typically will use 6x 1 morgen fields for wheat and the same for barley. With a fully staff windmill and granary devoted only to flour and wheat next to 3 communal ovens, I have enough bread to support 300-500 population.
Without high fertility, I'll typically avoid wheat completely and utilize other food sources or take Rye if there's not a rich berry/fish/game deposit.
The barley fields typically produce ~500 barley per year total and I use 2 malt houses and 2 breweries to keep up with ale production. Keep in mind this is with a high fertility region.
A fully staffed farmhouse can do 4 fields per planting/harvesting without missing any for the growth cycle. Using 2 farmhouses relatively close to the fields, you can do the 12 fields (4 will be fallow in any given year) with ease.
Another very solid food source is apples. Make sure the plots you use are extra large in size (around 2 morgen) and make around 3-4 depending on population size.
Between the apples, veggies, and bread you shouldn't have any issues with food.
The meat is fickle unless you have a rich game node and take the appropriate development points for it and build enough backyard animal pens or you go into sheep breeding.
Fishing, once you have the development point, is another good source up to a point.
Rich berries are great even without the development point. A non-rich berry deposit is great with the development point.
I've yet to find any scenario where making sausage is worth the time and effort. With the scarcity of salt and it being a finite resource (unless you get a rich and take deep mining in the development tree), sausage is the last thing I'd bother with.
I always thought it was 1 food per family and 1 firewood per plot. I don't think this has ever changed as I looked at old guides to the game and they all say this too.