Smoke Signals Expedition not giving a survivor

[Kip]

I've reloaded this expedition a few dozen times and tried sending different survivors. I get the message that I find still warm campfire and choose shout, but get attacked by a wild creature EVERY TIME with the rare I find nothing. I thought this had a high chance of a survivor???
What is the dialog when you find someone?

[Natjur]

Reload to just before you start the expedition and wait 1 game hour and send off. The outcome of the expedition is based on the time of day you get there, so you really can only change the outcome if you change the time your started the expedition.

Also are you at 8 survivers?

[Kip]

Thanks, ill try that. I saved the second I was given the pop up for the smoke signals. I'm at six survivors

[Kip]

I'm trying all sorts of times, nothing yet. I read that the quicker you respond the better, but that obviously doesn't work.

[RavensDaemon]

Originally posted by Kip:

I'm trying all sorts of times, nothing yet. I read that the quicker you respond the better, but that obviously doesn't work.

That is false. It is the time of day ingame. Save, go on mission, fail, reload, wait 1 hr, save.. repeat.

[Kip]

Well, ive tried different times up to a day and half later, tried alternating survivors, they find the small campfire with fresh embers, but no people alive

[Cece]

It's just bad rng. The only known diminishing factors so far are number of current survivors and time played in game. I'm at 9 survivors in my 2nd year, and the ninth one took 3 survivors cycling each half hour for over 12 hours. None of the previous survivors took that long. I'm dreading trying to rng my 10th survivor if a 10th one is even possible.

Someone claimed the result is tied to each quarter hour, but I've only noticed changes each half hour.

[gizmo6023]

I saw a post that said each survivor had a different percentage chance each game day so I gave it a try. Third day I managed to get survivor number eight. I have also attempted the every quarter game hour with mixed results.

[Kip]

Okay, finally got number 7 after over 100 tries. I was waiting several in-game hours between tries, then I started back at the first hour possible and with my first survivor and went through systematically, one hour at a time. At hour 2 I tried my second survivor. Several hours in and multiple cycles through (reloading multiple times for each right before mission completion, i got it. It was still within 24 hours of getting the quest. It was one of my non-original 4 survivors.

Hope this helps someone.

[spacedog]

Originally posted by Cece:

I'm at 9 survivors in my 2nd year...

Interesting. The debug overlays suggest that 10 should be possible, but I've never gotten beyond 8. This makes me think that the game seed must factor in as well, which kind of sucks. Getting all 10 survivors for someone who's playing normally (without save scumming) must be a one-in-a-billion kind of game.

Originally posted by Cece:

Someone claimed the result is tied to each quarter hour, but I've only noticed changes each half hour.

It's every 15 minutes for sure (about 2 real-world seconds at the fastest game speed). You're just seeing the RNG pick the same result multiple times in a row.

You can see it for 100% in action if you do the Signal Rocket expedition. When you send someone on the expedition, and get the notification that they arrived DON'T click the notification. Save the game again (under a new save slot). THEN click the notification and help fight off the beast.

If you reload that save, and then wait 15 game minutes before clicking the notification and fighting the beast, you'll rescue a different survivor (unless the RNG picks the same one again, but that's rare). It will force show you the notification after 1 game hour, so you can only do this 4 times before you have to go back to the original save (from before you sent the balloon), but you will almost always see 4 different survivors during that hour. So it's for sure every 15 minutes.

Note that save scumming is way harder with Smoke Signals, and even more so with Thin Smoke. It's possible to get survivors out of those, but the odds are really low (and even lower the more survivors you have and longer that game has been going). It's a grind, especially if you're being picky about which survivor you get.

[Martin]

Seed I'm on is called... LAND-NOBODY :D I have 2 walk ins. And one rescued. I also got about 6 I think possible rescue expeditions in first year alone. If I'd gotten those, I'd be at 12-13 survivors.. One interesting thing I did note from previous games, which I cannot verify.. but the majority of the actual rescues occurs as the timer runs out, literally in the last day or less.

Wow Seed LAND-SOMEONE the extra debris actually lands ON TOP of your survivors and injures them. And they destroy all of my supplies. Including the laser pistol.

[gizmo6023]

It would be interesting to know all the variables that the seed name effects. I have been using song titles and band names, have had some nice looking start points and research bonuses but lousy luck with walk ins. I have managed a rescue from smoke signals but it was a lot of work.

[Kip]

Been at a campfire four hours IRL time. trying to check each hour. I get the "study to learn turrets" a lot, and im almost tempted to take it and move on. I want more survivors though and this tedious reload over and over seems the only way.

[Kip]

Okay, it took me almost five hours of RL time, but on the 3rd day of the campfire, not many hours before it expired, I got an 8th. Playing hour by hour seems the best to me. I get the feeling that whatever the results are going to be, last for an hour. That doesn't mean it updates exactly on the hour, which is why some may feel it changes every 15 in game minutes.

[jojobe]

It really is random and it those mission that you get survivors. I have had no luck with any other.

[Martin]

Originally posted by Kip:

Been at a campfire four hours IRL time. trying to check each hour. I get the "study to learn turrets" a lot, and im almost tempted to take it and move on. I want more survivors though and this tedious reload over and over seems the only way.

Had this one a few times, some times with study solars as well as turrets, don't know if this is based off a skill or just random luck. Sometimes I just get fortify defences and try to hold on..