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There's very little to disagree with given that so much of the narrative and plot bits that you receive are about how Marika orchestrated the downfall of The Golden Order, The Shattering, the baby she gave birth to to literally set the tree on fire... I mean, even Mesmer's words or the way he regards you makes it even LESS subtle.
We also have Placidusaax mentioned as an Elden Lord before the Golden Order was a thing.
I agree with you. I think the DLC finally confirmed that. Now that we know that the fingers haven't had contact with the greater will in ages and have lied and manipulated Marika, it all makes sense.
I think Ranni noticed that first. Hence her determination to get rid of the fingers. Her assassination attempt on Godwyn was brutal, but that was the defining moment when Marika realized that it was all a lie and that she was actually a prisoner.
You're both right on this. My understanding up until recently was that the Tarnished is some random person Melina had a good feeling about - that while Marika ended up fighting against the Greater Will, and had some contingencies setup you could take advantage of, it was a happy coincidence (game logic) that you're taking advantage of - right person, right place, right time, basically. That her desires were to fix the flaws of the Golden Order, she had just given up on how.
This may be just me missing details up until now, and if so I'll happily grant that in advance. However... It wasn't until after the DLC that my understanding shifted to being that Marika had most definitely lined up resources and people in such a way that the outcomes would *all* serve her purposes. That no matter what ending is chosen, she wins more than she loses, and she had managed to edit the equation used to ensure that.
It may have been seeing how Miquella tried to (badly) copy her playbook that helped it sink in, honestly.
And then there's the whole mystery of why 2 of her kids, Mohg and Morgott, were cursed as Omen. Did Godfrey do something bad, too?
And then there's the whole mystery of....
She set up the equation so that even though she dies, the Elden Beast dies too and the Greater Will takes a substantial hit in power & influence - no matter the outcome.
In the better case (Ranni's ending, from that view), and in the worst case (Frenzied Flame), the Greater Will is made entirely irrelevant.
I definitely have to respect that.
Nothing I saw in the DLC stated anything directly either, but given the above conversation... Maliketh was her Shadow, and Maliketh held the Rune of Death. It doesn't seem at all unreasonable that circumstances could be arranged to help Ranni's plot reach the right outcome once she knew about it.
Whether Marika actually inspired it is an open question, I'll definitely grant - but it at least seems reasonable for her to take advantage of it for her own ends once she found out about Ranni's intentions.
Moreover, it seems very reasonable for her to keep a close eye on goings-on within Liurnia, and the Carian royal family thereof - for multiple reasons.
I think Ranni recognized the lie first. We don't know what her rune was, but perhaps it allowed her to see through the fingers' lies. I guess even if Ranni had told Marika about it, she wouldn't have believed a word.
Hence Ranni’s drastic measures. That was probably the only way to show Marika that she had been lied to and that she and her children were actually prisoners.
Hmmm now that I think about it, maybe Marika was more than ready to sacrifice Godwyn out of spite for the GW and the Order. After all, Godwyn's moniker was "Godwyn the Golden," so maybe he was a bad reminder of what she hated. And it's been shown throughout the game that Marika is extremely manipulative and ambitious - often going to extremes to get what she wants.
I think it was the final straw for her, personally. It doesn't say so directly anywhere, but given her actions and the mindset they were made in, I can make a good educated guess as to her reaction and subsequent actions to finding out the truth about the Greater Will and the Fingers.
The presence of Carian-educated people in the Realm of Shadows suggests to me as well that Marika wanted to encourage research into certain magics out of the eyesight of the Fingers and Elden Beast.
This is still bugging me though - how in the Lands Between did Rellana get convinced to leave her twin Renalla, her kingdom, and even her world behind to fight for the son of the woman who stole her twin's husband? Like, the Carian folk there were likely led by a figure in power, and it makes sense for that figure to also be a member of the Carian family. But... Queen Renalla's twin sister?
After playing through the DLC... yeah. I'd even consider it probable, as much as I hate to say it.
After all, we do get a notification in SotE that Miquella's rune/enchantment have been broken and that his subjects have snapped out of his seduction, so Malenia snapping out of it too and eventually telling us the truth would have been amazing,
Sigh...another missed opportunity.