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30%, maybe less. Depends on how much you consider part of the main game.
The area boss of Caelid is only unlocked after you progress past Liurnia. Caelid is either a fun challenge for experienced players or it can teach less experienced players they should go the other way if they are struggling.
Upgrade materials in the capital and Caelid are mostly the same level, I think that and something I won't spoil are solid indicators they intended Caelid to be done around then.
By my count you have a minimum of 5 areas/legacy dungeons to go. Depends on how you count and you would be rushing to the end of the game.
Actually 4/9, Stormveil and the academy are legacy dungeons. Smaller than an upcoming one, that's why I estimate you're 30% or less done with mandatory things.
Limgrave, Liurnia, Stormveil Castle, Raya Lucaria Academy = 4