1+ Million Concurrent Players!

[Dr.God]

Welcome to the Peak Concurrent Players & Sales prediction thread for Elden Ring

Elden Ring is one of the most hyped games of 2022 and has the potential to break some pretty impressive records across all platforms.
Post your predictions on this thread and check back to see how close you were.
[Please avoid any form of toxicity and report all toxic comments]

My predictions:
Launch day concurrent players: 1+ million (across all platforms)
Peak concurrent players: 1.5+ million (after first major expansion)
Year 1 Sales: 10-15 million (across all platforms)
Lifetime Sales: 25+ million (across all platforms)

[nomorevideos]

Originally posted by Dr.God:

Originally posted by Fps:

Just on Steam or on all platforms?

All platforms

There's no way to tell the player count for all platforms.

[FireShark]

350K players on Steam
20 million lifetime sales.

[Dragonirian]

If they fix lack of solo invasions - the game will live long and happy life like DS3. If not - it will die like bloodbourne.

[Spacelorian]

10 billion concurrent players mainly from North Korea, sales like couple trillion?

[Fps]

Starting to doubt my first guess. I think there might be ~300k on steam alone. ~1,000,000 on all platforms.

[nomorevideos]

Originally posted by Dr.God:

Originally posted by nomorevideos:

Considering it's a niche game, 150k on Steam, slightly above what DS3 and Sekiro pulled in. 3.5 million copies first 3 months, 4 million copies in 2022.



Would bet money, if I had any, that it'll be below 200k peak. I don't see it reach DL2 levels or even surpass it. If my 150k guess is wrong, I don't think it'll be by much. Maybe it'll really almost crack 200k, but I am pretty sure it'll not go above it.

Not even close...

It'll be very close, believe me. At most I am seeing a 33% growth in players and sales, up from DS3 and Sekiro which were nearly identical in terms of sales and how many people played at peak. I don't see it cracking 200k. Definitely way less than 500k or so, however to interpret your numbers. There's no way to know the player count for all platforms, so Steam numbers and how many we have here is the only real metric.

Originally posted by KillingArts:

Originally posted by nomorevideos:

Considering it's a niche game, 150k on Steam, slightly above what DS3 and Sekiro pulled in. 3.5 million copies first 3 months, 4 million copies in 2022.

Not sure why people still call From games niche. If it sells 4 million copies, it's not really a niche game.

Because these games are all niche, especially with how all of us keep hyping the games up to be "ultra hard" and "le gitgud". There's a stigma that comes with Fromsoft games on top of already being niche.
DS3 sold 3 million copies in its first 2 or 3 months and in total sold 10 million. Nothing to sneeze at, but it still remains a niche title compared to other IPs like CoD or Capcom's mainstays. Actually surprised that it sold 10 million in total.

[Pastel Princess Kairi]

Originally posted by nomorevideos:

Originally posted by Dr.God:

Not even close...

It'll be very close, believe me. At most I am seeing a 33% growth in players and sales, up from DS3 and Sekiro which were nearly identical in terms of sales and how many people played at peak. I don't see it cracking 200k. Definitely way less than 500k or so, however to interpret your numbers. There's no way to know the player count for all platforms, so Steam numbers and how many we have here is the only real metric.

Originally posted by KillingArts:

Not sure why people still call From games niche. If it sells 4 million copies, it's not really a niche game.

Because these games are all niche, especially with how all of us keep hyping the games up to be "ultra hard" and "le gitgud". There's a stigma that comes with Fromsoft games on top of already being niche.
DS3 sold 3 million copies in its first 2 or 3 months and in total sold 10 million. Nothing to sneeze at, but it still remains a niche title compared to other IPs like CoD or Capcom's mainstays. Actually surprised that it sold 10 million in total.

Saying 10 million sales is niche is kinda laughable, ngl. It's not the best selling game, but that's a metric ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ of sales. Most games never reach anywhere close to that many sales. 10 million sales is far from niche. The series used to be niche, but has since spread to be more popular. That's okay, imo, because the increase in quality shows.

[Snefru]

453,172

[nomorevideos]

Originally posted by TheQueenLilith:

Originally posted by nomorevideos:

It'll be very close, believe me. At most I am seeing a 33% growth in players and sales, up from DS3 and Sekiro which were nearly identical in terms of sales and how many people played at peak. I don't see it cracking 200k. Definitely way less than 500k or so, however to interpret your numbers. There's no way to know the player count for all platforms, so Steam numbers and how many we have here is the only real metric.


Because these games are all niche, especially with how all of us keep hyping the games up to be "ultra hard" and "le gitgud". There's a stigma that comes with Fromsoft games on top of already being niche.
DS3 sold 3 million copies in its first 2 or 3 months and in total sold 10 million. Nothing to sneeze at, but it still remains a niche title compared to other IPs like CoD or Capcom's mainstays. Actually surprised that it sold 10 million in total.

Saying 10 million sales is niche is kinda laughable, ngl. It's not the best selling game, but that's a metric ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ of sales. Most games never reach anywhere close to that many sales. 10 million sales is far from niche. The series used to be niche, but has since spread to be more popular. That's okay, imo, because the increase in quality shows.

That's lifetime sales though. Something other games pull in on release or within the first 2 years. MW19 sold 6+ million copies in its first day. You wouldn't call RE niche, right? Some of them sold very well within only a few years, but launch and even 2 year statistics for some of them are still pretty bad compared to others, like RE3 sold I believe 3.3 million copies in 2020. Launch was like 2.5 million. A lot worse compared to RE2 which sold 9 million units till today, RE3 only sold 4.5 million. Reminder, RE is also a rather niche market still. Not super niche as DS, I know I'd contradict myself otherwise, but there's a lot of people still who have never heard about RE or played the games. Anything that isn't straight-up CoD can be considered niche, especially when it's something like Dark Souls, which again, fans hype up to be "super hard" and stuff. Lifetime sales might not be super niche, but launch numbers will be. It's a niche genre of games we have here and it'll be reflected in the peak players and later statistics more than anything.

If ER cracks 200k and actually goes way above that, I'd be surprised. My guess stands at 150k, but no more than 200k.

[EleventhStar]

is it even possible to check player numbers on something other than steam? like outside of press releases from companies?

[DarkWolf]

Originally posted by Dao of Samsara:

200k. There is no way it goes up beyond 1 million

That's less than Total War WH3 had, and that's a niche game. Elden Ring is the most anticipated game since CP2077.

[nomorevideos]

Originally posted by EleventhStar:

is it even possible to check player numbers on something other than steam? like outside of press releases from companies?

No, that's the point why I said it's stupid earlier. The only thing you have is developer statistics, which could be skewed or straight-up fake. As long as a company isn't public there's nothing stopping them from lying. In case of CoD Activision has several times lied and used exact wording to make it sound better and to hide how bad it really is. Like saying "Vanguard is the most bought digital CoD there is" and stuff like that. Or no, that was CW. For Vanguard they said it's the most played CoD on next-gen consoles.

[Justinyl]

Lifetime sales probably 2 - 5 millions.

[nomorevideos]

Originally posted by 𒆜DarkWolf𒀖:

Originally posted by Dao of Samsara:

200k. There is no way it goes up beyond 1 million

That's less than Total War WH3 had, and that's a niche game. Elden Ring is the most anticipated game since CP2077.

WH3 had 140k?

https://steamcharts.com/app/1142710

Might be slightly inaccurate, but usually these numbers are pretty true to launch statistics. Though I've seen launch numbers be higher on Steam before, compared to then old Steam Charts data.

Oh actually yeah, silly me. Peak players was 165k. Still below 200k.

[Pastel Princess Kairi]

Originally posted by nomorevideos:

Originally posted by TheQueenLilith:

Saying 10 million sales is niche is kinda laughable, ngl. It's not the best selling game, but that's a metric ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ of sales. Most games never reach anywhere close to that many sales. 10 million sales is far from niche. The series used to be niche, but has since spread to be more popular. That's okay, imo, because the increase in quality shows.

That's lifetime sales though. Something other games pull in on release or within the first 2 years. MW19 sold 6+ million copies in its first day. You wouldn't call RE niche, right? Some of them sold very well within only a few years, but launch and even 2 year statistics for some of them are still pretty bad compared to others, like RE3 sold I believe 3.3 million copies in 2020. Launch was like 2.5 million. A lot worse compared to RE2 which sold 9 million units till today, RE3 only sold 4.5 million. Reminder, RE is also a rather niche market still. Not super niche as DS, I know I'd contradict myself otherwise, but there's a lot of people still who have never heard about RE or played the games. Anything that isn't straight-up CoD can be considered niche, especially when it's something like Dark Souls, which again, fans hype up to be "super hard" and stuff. Lifetime sales might not be super niche, but launch numbers will be. It's a niche genre of games we have here and it'll be reflected in the peak players and later statistics more than anything.

If ER cracks 200k and actually goes way above that, I'd be surprised. My guess stands at 150k, but no more than 200k.

I'm aware it's lifetime. Lifetime sales of 10 million are not niche. Especially given it got millions in the first year. Millions of sales == not niche.

Launch numbers do not reflect the number of sales...that's why "lifetime sales" are a thing.