Poll Chart Help

[Psycho_Soyer]

So i conducted a poll and I am trying to understand the chart.

Name Recognition- <----I understand this

Approval Rating ? I am a little confused at the below percentages.

(Candidate Name Here)- 39%
Democrats-14%
Republicans-82%
Independents-48%

Candidates Name Here-75%
Democrats 99%
Republicans-29%
Independents-72%

(Candidates Name Here)-67%
Democrats 94%
Republicans-16%
Independents-62%

(Candidates Name Here)-63%
Democrats 88%
Republicans-15%
Independents-60%

Can anyone enlighten me on what these percentages mean? They don't seem to add up. Obviously I am looking at this chart in the wrong way.

Also is there a tutorial on the basics of this game that you can direct me towards?

Thanks

[TOW]

The percentage of voters from those groups that approve of that candidate.

So for the top example you gave: 39% of all voters in this poll approve of them. 14% of Dem voters approve. 82% of Rep voters. 48% of Ind voters.

Not sure about an actual tutorial but the concepts tab has lots of useful information.

[Psycho_Soyer]

Originally posted by TOW:

The percentage of voters from those groups that approve of that candidate.

So for the top example you gave: 39% of all voters in this poll approve of them. 14% of Dem voters approve. 82% of Rep voters. 48% of Ind voters.

I got it now. So 18% of "THE REPUBLICANS I POLLED" don't approve.

So of the 1000 people polled maybe only 100 were Republicans and only 18 of them disapprove. And only 82 of them approve.
So unless I know how many Republicans were actually polled I'll never get a clear view of public opinion.

More proof that polls are worthless and can be manipulated easily.

[Gamma]

Originally posted by Psycho_Soyer:

Originally posted by TOW:

The percentage of voters from those groups that approve of that candidate.

So for the top example you gave: 39% of all voters in this poll approve of them. 14% of Dem voters approve. 82% of Rep voters. 48% of Ind voters.

I got it now. So 18% of "THE REPUBLICANS I POLLED" don't approve.

So of the 1000 people polled maybe only 100 were Republicans and only 18 of them disapprove. And only 82 of them approve.
So unless I know how many Republicans were actually polled I'll never get a clear view of public opinion.

More proof that polls are worthless and can be manipulated easily.

I could be wrong, but I think the calculations of the polls in the game right now do not work that way.

From my understanding, the game (which is omniscient) starts from the actual percentages, and adjusts them by values taken at random within the margin of error (the theoretical uncertainty linked to the sample). So the "number of Republicans" and of "Democrats" in the sample actually do not matter.

If you polled 1000 people, the margin of error was +/- 3.1%, and therefore, you know that the actual real percentages you were looking for were within the margin of error (+/- 3.1% from the value you listed).

So if voter intentions are:
- DEM candidate: 49%
- GOP candidate: 51%
You actually cannot know with a single poll what is going to happen. The only theoretical way of "knowing" would be to do a looot of polls and try to look for an average (this is how poll aggregators work).

Also, take into account that "approval rating" measures how the voters approve each politician. This is a value the game take into account to calculate elections' results, but this is just one of the so many values the game take into account.

Tbh, I recommend not carrying that much about approval rating. Voter intention is what really matter. Priorities' polls can be useful to decide what your platform will be. And Public Opinion polls can be used to "adjust" your personal policies to the electorate.

(I believe polls in the game should be reworked, as I find them too accurate right now.)

[Psycho_Soyer]

Originally posted by Gamma:

Originally posted by Psycho_Soyer:

I got it now. So 18% of "THE REPUBLICANS I POLLED" don't approve.

So of the 1000 people polled maybe only 100 were Republicans and only 18 of them disapprove. And only 82 of them approve.
So unless I know how many Republicans were actually polled I'll never get a clear view of public opinion.

More proof that polls are worthless and can be manipulated easily.

I could be wrong, but I think the calculations of the polls in the game right now do not work that way.

From my understanding, the game (which is omniscient) starts from the actual percentages, and adjusts them by values taken at random within the margin of error (the theoretical uncertainty linked to the sample). So the "number of Republicans" and of "Democrats" in the sample actually do not matter.

If you polled 1000 people, the margin of error was +/- 3.1%, and therefore, you know that the actual real percentages you were looking for were within the margin of error (+/- 3.1% from the value you listed).

So if voter intentions are:
- DEM candidate: 49%
- GOP candidate: 51%
You actually cannot know with a single poll what is going to happen. The only theoretical way of "knowing" would be to do a looot of polls and try to look for an average (this is how poll aggregators work).

Also, take into account that "approval rating" measures how the voters approve each politician. This is a value the game take into account to calculate elections' results, but this is just one of the so many values the game take into account.

Tbh, I recommend not carrying that much about approval rating. Voter intention is what really matter. Priorities' polls can be useful to decide what your platform will be. And Public Opinion polls can be used to "adjust" your personal policies to the electorate.

(I believe polls in the game should be reworked, as I find them too accurate right now.)

That is good to know because my "Voter Intention" numbers alway seem to be my better numbers.

The more I play this game the more I like it. If Political Process and Suzerain had a baby I would definitely buy it.

Thank You

[TOW]

I mainly use the polls for voter intention, voter priorities, and the policy specific ones.

Voter intention to see where I stand vs a primary candidate if there is one, if not I skip that line on any polls I use until the general.

Voter priorities to see how I should align my 3 policy focuses.

Policy specific ones to align my platform how I want in regards to the demographics. In a primary I align more so with my party. Once it's the general I may switch some policy stances that I do not hold strong opinions on more towards the center as to gain appeal with voters not in my party.

I think the polls are pretty accurate with the sample sizes only affecting the margin of error. So if you run the same poll for the same thing 100 times in a row I dont think the results will be outside the listed margin of error.

I think over time the values can change. Or if you run any advertising, pass popular laws, etc. Changing options in the advanced options menus lets you decide how much change is possible.