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As you said, if you find yourself with an imbalance, there are many ways to adapt and increase/decrease spending.
Personally, I regularly under-estimate volatiles.
Focusing that little on nobles now is going to make your late game very painful. Metals should also be a much larger, if not the largest production resource given nanofactories are a primary source of money and the very high metal cost of later modules.
With T2 and especially T3, you should use agricultural modules to reduce the water and volatile upkeep costs of your habs.
Building T3 stuff, especially at radiation places like Mercury or inner Jupiter moons, is also once again going to cost a lot of Metals.
For ships, you need to watch out for two things imo:
Propellant costs, often mostly water (although there are also some decent metal or fissile drives)
Lategame ships, which tend to have a lot of radiators and armor, can cost several 1000s of noble metals depending on what drive and how much armor you want.
Sure, you can hit water shortage if you overuse bad drives. Or you can hit volatile shortage if you forget about farms.
So, more nobles is always good.
Couple of good fissile sites will set you up for life (unless you are doing weird things).
Water/Volatiles/Metals a roughly equally important. Early on you may want to lean more on metals because those are main construction material. Later on lean more on Water because it is fuel for your fleets.
How unhelpful. I ask for recommended ratios and you suggest "if you are playing correctly" without giving a clue what that means. What is a "couple of good fissile sites". In my current game there is only one site inside Jupiter with over 6 fissiles. Are the three providing about 5 each plus a few little bits enough?
You recommend 1 Water :: 1 Volatiles :: 1 Metals?
One thing I have seen mentioned is that you can build more mines than the soft cap and then shutdown some of them so you can vary the yields a bit.
I have another story though. On an early game I played I didnt pay attention to the fuel costs that much and was exited about Orion Drives until I had to refuel. Big fail. If you were lucky to grab the gold mines of fissile materials, those drives become useful in the beginning, if not, they stay niche. You dont always get all the resource sites you want, so learning to play with what you got is part of the challenge I would claim.
Unless you are fielding a lot of NFT/NFD/Dusty Plasma/Fission Frag drives 20 fissile income is more than you will ever need. Once you swap to fusion you need even less than that.
I recommend not worrying about exact ratios. You will be fine unless you ignore some of the resources on purpose. Basically, if you are getting bottle-necked by water/volatiles/metals the actual root cause almost certainly lies elsewhere and not in not following exact optimal ratios.
That is rarely a necessity unless you are doing some kind of hyper-optimized rush. Having spare mines is mostly about having a buffer to recover after getting some of them trashed by ayys.
Water: When you rely on pulse drives and construct early heavy ships for Earth Def (BB, BC, CA). Too much delta V eats water. It comes back later, when you move to fusion drives and start to do interplanetary warfare, especially on earlier fusion drives.
Volatiles: Case 1: Relying on missles for too long, they burn through volatiles like hell even on smaller ships. Case 2: Armoring early wave of heavy ships with too much adamantine armor. It eats a lot of volatiles. (anything more than 10 on sides on a ship with an inefficient drive is a bad investment, early stage system defence ships will run up their lifetime sooner than later).
Volatiles never cease to be important, as adamantine armor always stays relevant. Exotic armor or hybrid armor is almost never a wide-fleet option.
Metals: In my playthroughs it usually happened when I modernized the fleet (scrap / rebuild, not refit) for better drives and weapons. Also big waves of upgrades of stations.
Always relevant.
Nobles: Very specific on the seed, happened to me only occassionaly only on the resource poor maps. Mostly connected with volatiles for armor and sophisticated heaters / drives / reactors.
Fissles: Like nobles, almost limited to end-game, specific for the choice of end-drives
My rough approx. will be for production:
1 : 2 : 1,5 : 0,3 : 0,5
I really recommend pumping up volatiles, adamantine armor is the standard armor for the whole game for your fleet. It eats a lot of volatiles. If you want a 3rd tier station that produces reasonably armored 5xBB synchronously without hickups you should aim in volatiles production above 30 daily, ideally around 50-60. Of course this is unattainable with Mars and asteroids only, so one has to fight around Jupiter and further.
In my last 5 playthroughs (all of them ended around Jupiter-Saturn kerfufles) volatiles were limiting factor, seconded by metals. In one of them water came close to be limiting, due to experiments with drives.
Nose armor is INCREDIBLY important. For your earliest ships you want around 10 on your nose so you can survive a hit or two from max distance before your missiles distract their beams/destroy them.
As you move to mid game and advanced fission ships, you'll want that to increase to ~30. By the time you get to late game floating bricks you want 150+ armor. And I like a ratio of about 2:1:10 rear/side/nose on my ships.
Considering they haven't actually beaten the game and lost around Jupiter 5 times, perhaps they aren't giving very good advice? Their ratio is actually very, very bad and is going to result in severe metals and ESPECIALLY nobles shortages as you progress from mid to late game. Once you have farms, volatiles cease being any kind of impediment entirely. And there is almost zero need to carry that much fissiles. Fissiles being a larger amount than nobles is - I'm sorry to say it this way, but it's true - simply absurd. You can literally get by with less than 20 fissiles a month the entire game, and that's only if you go heavy on the fission station modules before shifting to fusion.
As I told you originally, volatiles initially can be the first bottleneck, and you shouldn't ignore them, but as the game progresses that rapidly shifts to metals and nobles.
Metals! Metals! Metals! Once you get into mid-game, shipbuilding and space conflict, you burn through metal like crazy. Dreads, Titans and battlestations chow metal. Mercury chows metal. Rebuilding blown up space stations chows metal. However, you can solve this by taking over or building metal mines everywhere you can protect them. There are usually lots of good metal sites.
Mid-Game Production targets.
Water: +500 to +1k per month. Easy to achieve.
Volatiles: +500 to +1k per month, Easy to achieve. (Farms are your friend)
Metals: +1000 per month or better. Tricky, as you can blow your MC or over-invest in nanofactories.
Rares: +250 per month or better. Easy to achieve.
Fissiles: +10 to +30 per month, easy to achieve.
Late Gamer Production targets. Economy dependent.
Metals, Rare and Fissile production will need to be accelerated. Fissiles get consumed to produce antimatter, so if you have a heavy antimatter economy, you can walk yourself into a corner. Pay careful attention to the resource cost of ships. A badly designed ship can require tons of metal/rare/exotics to build and kill your economy in short order.
The traps are nanofactories, supercolliders, antimatter drives, and exotic armor or radiators. Over investing in any of these will kill your economy. Late game, you have to balance your use of these carefully.