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That's the only hypothesis I could come up with. Is there a way to prove this explanation?
it can happen to you or to AI and target you.
Hey, thanks! Most likely that's it! Although I believe the event is an Optional Event called "Volunteer". The Wiki states this:
"Optional Events will take place a month after certain optional conditions are met:
[...]
'Volunteer' will grant a faction the choice between gaining 5 Influence or spending 100 Money to gain an open control point in a powerful nation. It has the following requirements:
World finished the Arrival Domestic Politics global research
Faction does not have Control Points in any nation with 4"
- https://hoodedhorse.com/wiki/Terra_Invicta/Events
Jumping back a few months in my campaign, this does fit the picture for the most part:
- Arrival Domestic Politics has been researched (although I don't know how long ago)
- Free Control Point in USA, Executive obviously
- HF has only one CP in Turkey, with very little Public Opinion in their favor. They even got broken and turned by Exodus during my experimental observation. Next largest HF Nations: Spain, Egypt, etc.
The event, however, did not trigger again, even after several months.
Conclusion: leaving out the Executive CP in a nation is still a valid strategy to save some CP in the early game. This Optional Event is apparently quite rare in both cicumstance and chance to trigger.
Thanks guys, this was fun!