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If you are going to go after one or the other it's good to plan on getting both, but India is probably a better earlier bet. It's also significantly easier to get early on compared to China, which tends to be almost impossible to get early game.
Good point.
One time, playing as Servants, the aliens gave me the Religion CP in India. At this point, India had either 5 or 6 CPs (I can't remember), and all of the other ones were held by I think Academy. I set the one CP I held to only run Unity, and the value it ended up stabilizing at was about 2/3 Servant, 1/3 Academy. Despite only having 1/5 or 1/6 of the CPs.
India is kind of a dead end, can connect a few territories and that's it. I'd go for it very last.
The most power play is to open EU, construct entire EU, then construct full PAC, then connect all of it into Eurasian Union from Russia.
But I hate Russia, so I just dissolve it between EU and PAC and call it a day.
You can swap territory between china and Taiwan to boost Chinas overall militech to Taiwan's lvl, so great for early military and you can break off Taiwan again have it rush militech again and do it again. but in terms of overall ip production, not great.
With India you can combine with a number of okay sized states and it's territory is so populous that granting independence will make higher cp states once you deal with some of the early econ issues, so good long term ip production and growth potential, but a rougher start.
Big single nations are bad for building armies and navies and if you don't have those militech don't mean much.
And if you want to build armies dividing nations increases your overall ip with which you can pump into armies and navies. Once your done you cede territory first then unify to minimize the effect of pop change on militech value.
Aliens cannot land if you got proper defensive fleets in orbit, ever.
And if you keep pushing back tech progress of Servants, they cannot gift a country to aliens either.
And if by any chance aliens do land something, just nuke it and call it a day.
And you never need armies to take territories because 2-3 operatives can slaughter any control point opposition in any country and replace with yours.
In general, its more profitable picking locks than bashing doors...
Even aside from that it's still worse at raising miltech than running Military in the combined nation, since the large nation will have fewer IPs without the small nations inside of it.