Smuggling ring event bugged?

[Barleyman]

I think the probabilities on this one are skewed. The even text says that you should have 2/3rd chance of proceeding if you look into it quietly, but with the game at 2047 now, I think I've only ever seen that succeed. So either there's a gotcha somewhere (a criminal in my ranks?) or the probabilities are at least swapped.

[corisai]

1/3 chance to fail is a big one.

In my experience is more like 50/50.

[Barleyman]

Yes, fail once, but I've seen the even something like five or six times now and succeeded only once. That would imply that either they swapped the chances or having a criminal agent is giving you a big malus.