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a) Control country neaby (and obviously NOT an indian rival).
b) Invest into public opinion of India.
c) Only now try to take control.
This how job done with any kind of superpower - they're too big to be taken directly with early game agents.
Keys are:
1) Public Campaigns to get Opinion up.
2) Taking over their neighboring, non-rival countries.
If you take over the neighboring countries and still have low percentage chance of public campaigns working you may have to just wait.
I got India by the end of 2022 in an Academy playthrough. But the nation started with high opinion of me (didn't need to campaign) and I was spamming Control Nation with 7-9 persuasion councilors with 5-10% chances and just kept doing it til I got them.
b) Between Australia & Japan - IMHO Japan is better. You will at least get some population of China (if not all) later via unification.
Meta of course is all about US, EU, Russia, China and India :)
Japan / South Korea are great major nations, but not great powers. I add them in after I have the CP and have the US.
Yea, I would say you basically "need" to have the US / Russia on lock and deal with their nukes (either control of the nations or dismantling them.. the nukes or the nations til you just have to control 1 region) by Alien invasion time.
EU has more potential than the US but takes a bit to get going. China / India have the most potential but take even longer to get going.
AI always rush for India if you give it a few turns of public campaign before jumping in, the only way I see you can get a full hold in India is to abuse RNG, you need to already start with a good opinion in India and a 8+ guy with some trait that further increase this in India to 10 or something like it. Them you rush India and play around it.
Important lesson about India, it s faster to fix it, than it is to fix China, that said, you cannot both go army/navy grabbing and fix it in time to 2029, it s one or another, if you are not relying in a combination of Japan + UK to be your first strike armies, or not rushing USA after getting India, you need to exploit the hell out of the middle east in order to quickly start buying the navies, nukes and armies you will need to face the aliens. I did that and managed to get India just in parity with the USA military by 2029, but it s not any close of what you get when you go for the 2 superpowers strategy, and much more complicated without a need to be complicated.
Three thing I would suggest you look into
1 . What are all the mission modifiers you can stack for capturing control points.
You have the councilors stat plus
Mission resource you can add(money in this case) plus councilor traits such as media darling which can add or subtract points. You have public opinion which for big nations you will have to raise some. Lastly there is extra points for surrounding nations you control.
2. The relationship between population size, gdp and investment points. People have made graphs of the exact numbers but in short big nations are inefficient in how much cp they use vs how much investment points they produce. Bigger nations are easier to control but investment points are how earth nations change their stats and produce things like boost, funding and MC.
3. Look into the union tech trees so you can plan around the potential great nation blocks that can form.