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If the AI was able to get it up to 10% chance to succeed, then it has a 1 in 10 chance (obviously) to win. And there's nothing that can be done.
For a risk management game like XCOM or Darkest Dungeon, these sorts of mechanics are fine. Gameplay is quick, and you are very unlikely to lose a whole squad all in a single dice rolls. Maybe multiple dice rolls, but not just the first and only. But instant wins on dice rolls after hours of investment in something are cheap.
It helps give you a chance but like Hydra said the RNG can still mess with you if they get lucky.
Edit: Or your marines were all drunk & off duty while docked at the station :P
And @#$% no, "it's an alien agent"! isn't going to be a good excuse for that. How alien could hide in tiny can like a space station? o_O
P.S. Seems that NOT building barracks & defense stations - but instead rely on fleet (with some marines on board for recapture) is a best strategy thanks to that bug >_<
I do think Control Space Asset is...regardless of balance its irritating as ♥♥♥♥. Idk.
Yeah I shouldn't be able to brute force my way into owning every major nation. there really should be more push and play with these things