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I personally have four horses, The ♥♥♥♥♥ Horse, The Black Arabian, The Norfolk, and the Breton. All four of the horses rarely ever buck me, hell my Black Arabian was surrounded by wolves and still didn't buck me.
Though I did have one experience of my ♥♥♥♥♥ horse bucking me while I was in the swamp swimming next to a gator. But after swimming and literally running over countless gators it only happened once and Its probably due to riding it too long as I literally rode it for days trying to level it to 4.
Moral of the story, have at least 2 or 3 horses and rotate them if you don't want to get bucked.
That is not true, there is a bravery stat that is not the same across all horse breeds, it is a stat not shown on any screen however. Which makes me pretty salty that I can't show any actual screencap to back this up, only conjecture and here-say
I know that a turkoman and a shire won't freak out over a snake unless you try to stand on top of it for about 5 seconds, but an arabian would be halfway to tumbleweed if you're within 10 foot of it.
EDIT: here is a pic to show I have it at level 4 bonding
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2196817083
It varies from horse to horse, but if you buy enough horses you can easily see that different horses act differently to predators, but it does seem that each breed is more or less likely to be brave. I've bought quite a few Black Arabians online, and they've all been super skittish, with several of them throwing me as soon as the predator appeared as a red dot, before I could even calm it. They weren't all quite that skittish, but they were all very skittish. On the other hand, I've had horses that will actually keep you on for a while even if you don't calm them at all.
There are definitely people who get lucky and are able to get a Black Arabian which is brave, but most of them aren't. Arabians in general are usually (but not always) on the skittish side.
In general, calming your horse definitely helps, and if you're always calming your horse while you ride it (which occasionally restores part of its stamina), then the odds are better that you're horse will keep you on longer when you encounter a predator, but too many horses act way too differently from other horses when it comes to predators for it to make any sense to claim that they all act the same. It's well-known that Arabians are usually more skittish, and you can find a lot of people on reddit who have had that exact experience, whereas they've found that other horses (such as the Turkomans) have been far braver in general. You can also find some people who have had brave Black Arabians or skittish Turkomans. So, it does vary from horse to horse rather than all horses in a breed being the same, but in general, Arabians are among the most skittish horses in the game.
Well, my experience is the complete opposite of yours. Bravery most definitely varies from horse to horse. I've seen it many times. Given that there is no visible stat for it, I guess that we'll just have to agree to disagree.
Take an Arabian Horse and a War Horse. Go do the Wolf Man Legendary Bounty with each and come back. That Arabian will buck you before the wolves are even near meanwhile the Warhorse is encircled by them and lets you run them over.