[SPOILERS] Chapter 6 questions

[-=PR=-moon knight]

1) If they know that Molly has talked to the Pinkertons, why are they all convinced there is a "rat" in the gang? For all they know, Molly was the rat, and she was dealt with.

2) At the end of the chapter we discover that Molly never talked and that the rat was Micah. But he was only picked after Guarma, so who talked about the Saint Denis heist?

[Ihateeverybody]

2a Not sure which SD heist is meant. I forget the sequence, was the St Dennis crime boss already dealt with by the time they did the boat? I am pretty sure he jacked them over on the train station robbery, he didn't want another gang in his town.

[-=PR=-moon knight]

Originally posted by Ihateeverybody:

2a Not sure which SD heist is meant. I forget the sequence, was the St Dennis crime boss already dealt with by the time they did the boat? I am pretty sure he jacked them over on the train station robbery, he didn't want another gang in his town.

I'm referring to the bank hest that goes south, the one in which Hosea and Lenny are killed. They say that it was a set up and Pinkerton knew all along, which is why they managed to capture Hosea and surround the place in force. So, everyone assume that Molly was the one who talked, but she wasn't. And Micah becomes a rat only after Guarma.

[onanonehand8]

It's these types of questions that give me pause about the quality of the game.

If there was forehand knowledge, why did they let the explosion happen? Why was Micah the only one wearing white clothing? That either makes him a prime target or the target to avoid, we don't know. Did Abigail successfully slip away or did she inform? We don't know and our biases either let us believe she did or did not tell the plan. My bias leans toward Micah, but the story we have negates that, unless Milton is just as devious as Micah.

[-=PR=-moon knight]

Yeah, but Milton has really no reason to tell a partial lie. For Milton, it changes nothing to say that Micah was recruited before Guarma and not after.

Either there's something I haven't understood, or this game has a massive plot hole.

[HerculeHolmes]

Well, it's implied that Micah was an informant long before Guarma, possibly since before joining the gang. It's also been suggested that the gang was just plain sloppy and were found out without needing a rat in the first place.

Although, we never actually get confirmation that Micah was the rat from anybody other than Agent Milton, and it is possible that he wasn't telling the truth.

[-=PR=-moon knight]

IIRC Hosea suspects that the Blackwater massacre was also a set up. But this also leads to more questions, like why was Micah aiding the Pinkertons at the time? We know that after Saint Denis and Guarma, Micah was capture and struck a deal with Milton to save his ass (at least this is what I got from what Milton said), but Micah has no reason that I can think off for wanting to sell Dutch to the authorities at that point in time. And the question of why Milton said "after Guarma" remains.

[HerculeHolmes]

Originally posted by moon knight:

IIRC Hosea suspects that the Blackwater massacre was also a set up. But this also leads to more questions, like why was Micah aiding the Pinkertons at the time? We know that after Saint Denis and Guarma, Micah was capture and struck a deal with Milton to save his ass (at least this is what I got from what Milton said), but Micah has no reason that I can think off for wanting to sell Dutch to the authorities at that point in time. And the question of why Milton said "after Guarma" remains.

Going with the idea that Micah wasn't a rat until after Guarma and there was a rat in the gang before then... let's look at some possible candidates; for speculations sake.

It's possible that one of the deceased gang members had sold out to the Pinkertons prior to the events of the game in exchange for an undisclosed deal. Meaning it could have been Mac or Davey or Jenny. Jenny and Davey both died on the way to Colter but Mac was killed by Milton while in custody. True, Milton says that Mac was defiant, but he could have been lying.

Then there's Sean. He was captured and spent some time in Blackwater before being rescued by the gang. It's unlikely, but he could have cut a deal with the Pinkertons prior to being transferred up the river and rescued, with his time as the rat being cut short after being shot in Rhodes.

It could have been Trelawny. He doesn't have much of an attachment to the gang, being more of an associate than a member and has a family of his own to think about. Although he would have probably given them up in Chapter 2 if the Pinkertons wanted him immediately.

[Draxenthor]

Gonna throw my hat in the ring and make a guess on the real rat..

Hidden in plain sight: Charles

Hear me out.

Charles was relatively new to the gang, but he was taken note of relatively quick by Dutch's inner circle (Hosea and Arthur). Soon becoming one of the most trusted members of the gang with his deep backstory. Maybe true? Perhaps this was the bargaining chip the Pinkerton Agency had against him; help capture Dutch and break up the gang, you'll get to see your Mother again.
Similar to what John Marston has to do in RDR1 to free Abigail, Jack and Uncle. If he kept Milton in the loop and tipped them off discreetly, he would remain out of target line and wouldn't swing. Which seemed to be one of his main bargain chips against the gang members.

Blackwater
As Javier described it; all was going well, then the Pinkerton's showed up out of nowhere and it started raining bullets. Who's to say that Charles' hunting trips weren't a small rendezvous with Milton? If he was already close to the inner circle, he could pass the tip off. It seemed like Micah really pushed for the ferry over the bank, so knowing Dutch would go for the bigger score, the Pinkerton's were already in place.
After the fight, Charles walks away with a burned hand. Perhaps warned ahead to not kill him to get more depth from the gang. Staying as a supportive member during their time in Colter could get him in deeper in trust with the gang during a hardship, meaning he's more reliable and trustworthy in a crisis.

Chapter 2
If most of the player base are the same, they would've left Micah sweating in Strawberry jail until the end of the chapter. Which begins to raise the question; how did the Law find out about the train robbery, organised by John, and were able to get so many guns to the scene so quickly?
After escaping, the group do remark on how fast the Law turned up and in such a number, like they knew it was a set up. But it's dismissed when the cuts are given out. Molly wouldn't be involved in these sorts of things and Micah wouldn't be back at camp just yet. Who was on the job? Charles.
Charles did get aggressive with the hunters during his camp activity with how they left the bison to try and blame it on the Indians, so we know he has a fierce temper about him. Recall how he pushed on Arthur to help search for the German captive, which is how the gang finds Clement's Point and the game moves there.

Chapter 3
Charles goes relatively quiet in this chapter, save a few missions like "An Honest Mistake" and "Magicians for Sport". Who's to say that when he goes out hunting, he's tipping off Milton again? It seems a little peculiar how Milton knew where the camp was after such a horrific shootout in Rhodes caused by the Grays family. Charles seems to hang back a little in the cutscene with Lenny taking the step forward.
Looking again. Molly does try to talk to Arthur at the start of "An Honest Mistake" but she's cut off by Uncle. That could've been the point where she's trying to warn Dutch's most trusted member, but because Uncle pulls him away, she gives up and storms off. Micah's causing a lot of gang members to get their backs up in this chapter, so already giving him the dodgy look to work well as a cover for Charles.

Chapter 4
Before the chapter fully starts, notice his dismissive Dutch is again with Molly before he and Arthur ride to Saint Denis to look for Bronte for information on Jack. Dutch dismisses her without a moment of saying "Hold that thought and we'll talk about it once we're back" but instead, he dismisses her. She can be later seen by Arthur on the small jetty at Shady Belle grumbling about how they're all laughing at her, which she dismisses Arthur once he asks about it.
Charles once again hangs back in use during this chapter, but who's to say that he still doesn't have his role to play? Look at how quick the Pinkerton's surround the bank and knew exactly where Hosea and Abigail were to be placed. Only an inner circle member would've known that sort of information. Leading to Hosea's death as a way to breaking the gang's morale on the bank robbery, only to lose it further when the Pinkerton's lay in wait and Lenny is killed, Charles still follows along. Perhaps him being the distraction to get the Law away from the gang to board the boat, this could've been his cover to give more information to Milton?

Chapter 5 (Start of 6)
As we're playing in Guarma at this point, who's to say that Charles isn't being held in custody? He could be given more on his assignment by Milton, giving the details on John being at the penitentiary, where the gang was being held up at Shady Belle and what's next in their deal? It seems a little coincidental that the Pinkertons knew to check Shady Belle and knew to head to Lagras and surround the settlement where the gang was being held up. Could've been that they searched the area before and found Sadie's letter and Charles told them it was code, so they knew where to ambush.
Molly is killed once the gang arrives at Beaver Hollow. Being intoxicated, she would've let a lot go on Dutch. I agree with a YouTube video I saw in that she takes the blame for being the rat because where Dutch refused to listen to her, even now, her best way of making him feel her pain is to betray him. So she's killed for "breaking the code" which would've shattered Dutch further.
Now Charles needs a new fall guy since Molly is no longer the prime candidate. Who's the one who's been getting people's backs up and stirring the gang the wrong way? Micah!

Chapter 6 & Epilogue
With Arthur helping the Indians most of this chapter, perhaps Charles assists him more on this because it's close to home. Maybe he could get more information on his Mother, maybe a place for her in Rains Fall's tribe, if he assists with their case. Obviously, it goes south. With the gang on the brink now, it's time for him to cut and run before the Pinkerton's go in for the kill.
With Milton's death, who's to say that Agent Ross went back on the deal they made after Dutch escaped during the shootout? His Mother isn't revealed or she's killed and then Charles becomes wanted, so he blends into illegal street brawls in Saint Denis where John and Uncle find him. Feeling some guilt on what befell Arthur, he finds his and Susan's remains and gives them a proper burial before participating in the brawls before living with John and Uncle at Beecher's Hope.
As a final ditch attempt to have Ross cut him loose, after the shootout atop Mount Hagen with the tip off that Dutch was there, he reveals that and John's location before departing as a free man. Leaving John to the story of RDR1.

Just a guess with what I've seen in the Story Mode.

[HerculeHolmes]

Originally posted by Draxenthor:

Gonna throw my hat in the ring and make a guess on the real rat..

Hidden in plain sight: Charles

Hear me out.

Charles was relatively new to the gang, but he was taken note of relatively quick by Dutch's inner circle (Hosea and Arthur). Soon becoming one of the most trusted members of the gang with his deep backstory. Maybe true? Perhaps this was the bargaining chip the Pinkerton Agency had against him; help capture Dutch and break up the gang, you'll get to see your Mother again.
Similar to what John Marston has to do in RDR1 to free Abigail, Jack and Uncle. If he kept Milton in the loop and tipped them off discreetly, he would remain out of target line and wouldn't swing. Which seemed to be one of his main bargain chips against the gang members.

Blackwater
As Javier described it; all was going well, then the Pinkerton's showed up out of nowhere and it started raining bullets. Who's to say that Charles' hunting trips weren't a small rendezvous with Milton? If he was already close to the inner circle, he could pass the tip off. It seemed like Micah really pushed for the ferry over the bank, so knowing Dutch would go for the bigger score, the Pinkerton's were already in place.
After the fight, Charles walks away with a burned hand. Perhaps warned ahead to not kill him to get more depth from the gang. Staying as a supportive member during their time in Colter could get him in deeper in trust with the gang during a hardship, meaning he's more reliable and trustworthy in a crisis.

Chapter 2
If most of the player base are the same, they would've left Micah sweating in Strawberry jail until the end of the chapter. Which begins to raise the question; how did the Law find out about the train robbery, organised by John, and were able to get so many guns to the scene so quickly?
After escaping, the group do remark on how fast the Law turned up and in such a number, like they knew it was a set up. But it's dismissed when the cuts are given out. Molly wouldn't be involved in these sorts of things and Micah wouldn't be back at camp just yet. Who was on the job? Charles.
Charles did get aggressive with the hunters during his camp activity with how they left the bison to try and blame it on the Indians, so we know he has a fierce temper about him. Recall how he pushed on Arthur to help search for the German captive, which is how the gang finds Clement's Point and the game moves there.

Chapter 3
Charles goes relatively quiet in this chapter, save a few missions like "An Honest Mistake" and "Magicians for Sport". Who's to say that when he goes out hunting, he's tipping off Milton again? It seems a little peculiar how Milton knew where the camp was after such a horrific shootout in Rhodes caused by the Grays family. Charles seems to hang back a little in the cutscene with Lenny taking the step forward.
Looking again. Molly does try to talk to Arthur at the start of "An Honest Mistake" but she's cut off by Uncle. That could've been the point where she's trying to warn Dutch's most trusted member, but because Uncle pulls him away, she gives up and storms off. Micah's causing a lot of gang members to get their backs up in this chapter, so already giving him the dodgy look to work well as a cover for Charles.

Chapter 4
Before the chapter fully starts, notice his dismissive Dutch is again with Molly before he and Arthur ride to Saint Denis to look for Bronte for information on Jack. Dutch dismisses her without a moment of saying "Hold that thought and we'll talk about it once we're back" but instead, he dismisses her. She can be later seen by Arthur on the small jetty at Shady Belle grumbling about how they're all laughing at her, which she dismisses Arthur once he asks about it.
Charles once again hangs back in use during this chapter, but who's to say that he still doesn't have his role to play? Look at how quick the Pinkerton's surround the bank and knew exactly where Hosea and Abigail were to be placed. Only an inner circle member would've known that sort of information. Leading to Hosea's death as a way to breaking the gang's morale on the bank robbery, only to lose it further when the Pinkerton's lay in wait and Lenny is killed, Charles still follows along. Perhaps him being the distraction to get the Law away from the gang to board the boat, this could've been his cover to give more information to Milton?

Chapter 5 (Start of 6)
As we're playing in Guarma at this point, who's to say that Charles isn't being held in custody? He could be given more on his assignment by Milton, giving the details on John being at the penitentiary, where the gang was being held up at Shady Belle and what's next in their deal? It seems a little coincidental that the Pinkertons knew to check Shady Belle and knew to head to Lagras and surround the settlement where the gang was being held up. Could've been that they searched the area before and found Sadie's letter and Charles told them it was code, so they knew where to ambush.
Molly is killed once the gang arrives at Beaver Hollow. Being intoxicated, she would've let a lot go on Dutch. I agree with a YouTube video I saw in that she takes the blame for being the rat because where Dutch refused to listen to her, even now, her best way of making him feel her pain is to betray him. So she's killed for "breaking the code" which would've shattered Dutch further.
Now Charles needs a new fall guy since Molly is no longer the prime candidate. Who's the one who's been getting people's backs up and stirring the gang the wrong way? Micah!

Chapter 6 & Epilogue
With Arthur helping the Indians most of this chapter, perhaps Charles assists him more on this because it's close to home. Maybe he could get more information on his Mother, maybe a place for her in Rains Fall's tribe, if he assists with their case. Obviously, it goes south. With the gang on the brink now, it's time for him to cut and run before the Pinkerton's go in for the kill.
With Milton's death, who's to say that Agent Ross went back on the deal they made after Dutch escaped during the shootout? His Mother isn't revealed or she's killed and then Charles becomes wanted, so he blends into illegal street brawls in Saint Denis where John and Uncle find him. Feeling some guilt on what befell Arthur, he finds his and Susan's remains and gives them a proper burial before participating in the brawls before living with John and Uncle at Beecher's Hope.
As a final ditch attempt to have Ross cut him loose, after the shootout atop Mount Hagen with the tip off that Dutch was there, he reveals that and John's location before departing as a free man. Leaving John to the story of RDR1.

Just a guess with what I've seen in the Story Mode.

This is by far the most unique theory I've heard so far in any RDR discussion. It starts off as an absurd suggestion but then actually starts to make sense as you start to think about it. Well done.

[Trespasser07]

nobody talked about the St Denis heist. It was just a poorly executed plan. Who creates a loud explosion seconds before the robbery? Hosea was caught in the act by the Pinkertons thats why he was held at gunpoint. As far as Molly was concerned, she only said those things out of spite for Dutch, besides that was 2 chapters later. Bank heist was ch4, Molly's was ch6.