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I assume you can't play offline because your game has not been activated (launched with an internet connection) within the past 7 days. Thus your game is "inactive." That explains why you get an activation error and why you don't have access to offline play without an internet connection.
tl;dr
In order to play RDR2 and GTAV without an internet connection our games must be activated.
Activation is an automated process. All we have to do to activate the game is to launch it with an internet connection.
What most people don't seem to know is that we lose activation to RDR2 and GTAV every 7 days.
This means, after 7 days since the last time we activated (launched with an internet connection), we lose access to offline play because we lose activation and our game becomes "inactive."
To keep playing offline for another 7 days we need to activate the game again.
To sum up, I can play both games without an internet connection at this very moment and I never have issues playing offline as long as I keep my games active. As soon as the games go "inactive" I am met with an activation error (same as your error). Which I fix by launching the games with an internet connection and then I can unplug my internet and play offline again, without any problem, for another 7 days.
"Thank you for contacting Rockstar Support.
As noted in the Red Dead Redemption 2 PC System Requirements, RDR2 on PC requires periodic entitlement verification over the Internet. Once you connect, sign into your Social Club account to verify your game and resume play.
Note: if you have any Rockstar Games Launcher or file path arguments setting the game to offline mode these will need to be disabled until after game verification is complete."
if youd like to check my review for more details and a laugh check it out:
https://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561198031581116/recommended/1174180/
Unfortunately offline mode has been broken after some recent RGL update and the above scheme has not been working properly for many people.
You have to open a ticket with Rockstar Support and demand that they fix offline mode in RDR2. I once did it 2 years ago - at first they will tell you RDR2 has no offline mode, you should stand your ground, quote their RGSC update announcements that mention offline mode as an officially supported feature and demand that they fix offline mode in RDR2. Then they'll request lots of additional info/logs (which they will never read) and say it has something to do with your other software or PC, you should stand your ground and tell them your PC is fine because you have no problem launching the game while Internet connection is active. They will bump your ticket to Tier 3 where you'll be asked the same questions all over again, you should stand your ground and tell them you have tried everything so maybe it is time for them to try and reproduce this issue on their reference test systems. After this they'll send it to devs who will code and release a kludgy update for RGSC. It took them a month when I did the above.
EDIT: here's my full Rockstar Support ticket that culminated in proper offline mode fix in Oct 2020 https://drive.google.com/file/d/118zUghQPzQcgdzvkFfa1-UxdrgbmWX1k/view?usp=sharing
Offline mode will be fixed until next RGL update breaks it again.
In Steam, add this string to the Launch Options of RDR2 Properties when you only want to play Story Mode Offline.
-skipPatcherCheck -useSteam -steamAppId=1174180 -scOfflineOnly
Now launch the game from Steam. It will force Rockstar Launcher into Off-Line Mode.
But yes, if game is new to your account you must launch it properly when Online so the game can be activated to your accounts.
I'm not here to spread false information. Just trying to help. What I described is how to fix the activation error that is caused by expired entitlement (not having an active game) or not having entitlement at all.
Not sure if you think i'm lying or not. Maybe the information I gave isn't helpful to your situation because your activation error isn't related to entitlement.
I last activated my game on the 12th of November (last week) because I seen a different thread about offline not working. I had not played RDR2 for a while so I decided to test it by activating my game. It worked just as I described (and as it always has for me) but unfortunately I didn't record the activation. Anyway, here is a video of me launching the game without an internet connection on the 12th of last week:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcpu2ZIDutY
And I played without an internet connection 12 hours before I posted, just like I said I did. I don't have it recorded so you can call this information whatever you wish but me playing offline on the 12th of last week is now a verified fact. You can believe me when I tell you how I did it or not, that's your choice.
Like I said maybe it don't work for you because your activation error is different than mine but it does not make what I said false. Just makes it not very helpful, lol.
Rockstar Support's response to you is a cut and paste from their support page for an activation error that is related to failing to load data, not entitlement:
https://support.rockstargames.com/articles/360038700273/Offline-mode-returning-Activation-Required-in-Red-Dead-Redemption-2-on-PC
Since Rockstar replied to you with quotes from an article for this problem i'm going to assume you have it but that's not the error I was talking about.
What I said speaks of the normal activation (periodic entitlement as Rockstar calls it) that is required every 7 days. It does not solve issues regarding loading data.
My mistake for thinking when the OP said "activation error" that I assumed (which is what I said, I assume) it was just the standard activation error that I get and didn't know it was a deeper issue.
Unfortunately, if your activation error issue is a failure to load data, then I don't have any helpful information to offer as I never experienced that error myself.
This is my actual ticket regarding broken offline mode in RDR2 from 2 years ago. I am sure you'll have a laugh at some Bangalore-level tech support at R*.
It is long but you may skip cut-and-paste Tier 1 responses, make sure to read Tier 2 arguments though - this is how the issue gets escalated to Tier 3 (to be fair those actually tried to read the enclosed info and solve the issue) and devs.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/118zUghQPzQcgdzvkFfa1-UxdrgbmWX1k/view?usp=sharing