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The AI beats you because it hits the instant win threshold from picking the 'high risk' moves. They are the ONLY thing that matters in duels, it only goes to prowess if neither of you pick them for like 4 turns in a row. Your access to these moves is mostly gated by traits, not prowess. If it does go to prowess, picking these moves gives you like +12 effective prowess each so it's unlikely that mr. 30+4+4+4+4 will beat madam 9+12+8+12+8
The berserk move, the shieldmaiden move, the blademaster 3 move, the intrigue/learning moves, anything which has a 'high' increase to your chance of success you need to pick. The only way to lose to self injury requires you to pick things with a HIGHER chance of injury than the chance of success, which you're basically unable to if your prowess is >8. Sometimes the AI will nab itself like this, that's about it.
Edit:
I'd like to note that I was consistently losing duels even with cheated prowess before I understood this because I was picking safe options expecting the duels to go to the end and then win on prowess difference. Maybe 1 in 10 duels that you the player don't trigger an instant-win/lose (chance of success/injury risk) threshold the AI won't either, whereas if you always pick at least 'high' increase to chance of success you'll pretty much beat anyone. This is also relative, if you have a high 'chance of success' and they do too there will be more rounds, as opposed to you just losing if you hadn't picked those options.
https://youtu.be/jR54A_PSPbM
Sorry, Bronn, you lose because you actually used your brain. Tiring out your opponent is obviously not a valid strategy in combat.
https://youtu.be/M22nWSzyccE
Sorry, Ali, this wouldn't work, quit being a loser.
It just has a narrow scope
There's no such thing as a "skill check". Do you mean a "consistency check"?
I'm done arguing about this.
Skill issue.
Consistently selecting the options that make you not die is the skill. Knowing what makes an option an option that makes you not die and knowing how you can increase your chance of getting those options is knowledge.
Now you can
>4. Spend time on application
and then
>6. Follow up back at work
once you've played CK3 and stopped losing duels by applying your knowledge.