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https://ck3.paradoxwikis.com/Schemes#Schemes
Kindly go read the max success and secrecy chances of the claim throne scheme to see what I am talking about instead of whatever it is you are referring to here. You can't get more than 90% success rate on a Claim Throne scheme and this chance will fire when the scheme is complete. Meaning there is no interception here, it's simply failing on the 10% chance to, multiple times in a row.
Sadly we have CK3 instead.
CK2 had foolproof imprisonment/execution/marriage which was instant when it was 100% success, leading to things like that one guy's legendary abyssid in-game-speedrun campaign.
Though it wasn't too long before that got restricted, then I think removed and replaced by plots.
Those had some MTTH, basically one step, unlike current 10 or whatever, to fire the chance to try and kill the person, more plot power the more likely it would fire sooner (so you could get a chance anywhere from next month, to never).
When the plot fired, chance of success/failure depended on the event, and target traits. base success for most(all?) events was only 75%, traits like trusting on the target could up it to 90%(some other traits to, for certain events), if the target had traits like paranoid, or diligent usually, they were almost impossible to kill because the chance to succeed would be halved or more by each trait.
You were also much more likely to be discovered, like 25% chance on success, and 50% of each fail.
Wait, I'm confused. What does intercept mean here? Can the Spymaster auto-fail a scheme somehow? Is that what happens when disrupt schemes goes off, I literally cannot find anything about what disrupt schemes does, so maybe it's that?
Is this about discovering a scheme?