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between 4 and 48 for a 1 star of your choice
Between 4 and 96 and up for a 2 stars of your choice
Between 4 and 480 and up for a 3 stars of your choice
Between 4 and 1k and up for a 3 stars "god roll" ... !
That means you'll see on average about 1 quad-explosive for every 225 crafts.
Thing i see all the time when i am doing big crafts like this is I will get the exact same weapon with the exact same 3 junk rolls several times in a row. Often 3 of them in 8-10 crafts. That is statistically almost impossible compared to getting the actual 3 rolls i wanted.
didn't get even one.
now i have like 20 really good rolls of other effects in my stash but still not what i wanted.
my tip would be to actually change the server if you feel like you're having bad luck.
recently i wanted to switch from SS armor to covert scout so i needed two arms and two legs with unyielding.
after 80 rolls i still didn't have a single f#cking piece with unyielding.
then i changed server and had unyielding on all 4 parts in under 50 rolls.
pretty sure it was the exact same thing when i wanted a full set of SS & hellcat overeaters for my full health heavy weapons guy.
Don't know.
Haven't got it yet.
Got Quad once out of 76 to 80 something tries?
Wish Vats worked better on it...
It's idiotic.
OP.
Just in case:
it works like "So how many modules?" doesn't even make sense to ask.
Might be 25 for you, or 250 for someone else.
You might ask "what's the average", but the answer would still be rather useless.
Confirmation bias.
The game has no clue about what you want, so you server hopping literally doesn't affect the outcome of rolls.
don't be foolish. obviously the game doesn't know what i want to roll. todd hasn't gotten that deep. yet.
but when some effects are basically missing from the pool of one server and the next server hands them over without too much trouble it is suspicious indeed.
1.
Why would any roll be 'missing from the server'?*
You are simply projecting, nothing more.
You are even actively looking for something that is actually unlikely to make your narrative fit. Because it couldn't just be random, there has to be a pattern, and you found it!
2.
You didn't actually get those things in 'under 50 rolls', by your own admission it was more like 150 rolls, which all together isn't that unreasonable for 4 unyielding and you not telling us how many desirable / undesirable secondary and tertiary rolls it gave you.
Just because your brain kicks you because you notice the main 'success' happening in somewhat short order doesn't mean it is statistically relevant.
You had 'bad luck' and then you got 'lucky'. All there is to it, and probably nothing to do with you switching servers.*
3. 'Suspicious' is exactly what I'm talking about. Again, it's your brain going "Hmmm" when it has no reason to.
It's what they do, the silly little things.
We are very poorly equipped to gauge probabilities well, and see patterns where none exist.
4. You don't give specifics about that second set you rolled, just give that vague "Pretty sure it was similar", but this is super useless without some better data on that - and even then might just be statistics.
* To be very fair, you might have encountered a server glitch - I did a quick look around and found something related to drops possibly being affected by server runtime (as, in: a few people reported that they seem to get samey trash drops with suspicious amount of 'Nocturnal' prefix for example, and others suggesting it might be when a servers is in need of a restart), but also to be fair that is 100% anecdotal and nothing is confirmed in any way.
But just to make it clear I'm not trying to disagree with you just because.
It is possible that you might have encountered something relevant - but I have a really hard time seeing this as a fact that can be easily replicated, so I'm going with logic on this one.
Especially since when it does have to do with server up time / age, you server hopping could actually make it worse.
the conclusion may very well be but that's for everybody to decide.
you are assuming that all effects actually have the exact same chance to show up. it's likely true but not guaranteed. as you probably know some combinations are not possible (anymore) like explosive effect on energy weapons or double damage on last shot for weapons with only one shot like the dragon.
and that the game's rng is actual proper rng and not at least partially based on some replicable value like time of day.
also technically the game could very well guess what you want to roll. not that anybody would put that much effort into the system but it's reasonable to assume that a player with 10% health and 90% rads at the workbench usually wants unyielding armor and bloodied weapons.
let me put it this way:
if i wait 80 minutes at house #1 and not get a single piece of candy i like and house #2 hands out my favorite candy 4 times in under 50 minutes then house #2 is objectively better for my needs. even when both houses look exactly the same from the outside.
there were no undesired effects on my armor. i only wanted unyielding and that's it. but after i had the set i wanted i did some rerolling so in fact i got way more than 4 pieces of unyielding on server #2. maybe 8 in total but i stopped counting attempts & successes after i got the first 4 pieces. thinking about it i would guess i made roughly 170 rolls on both servers combined before running out of cores. that's 80 rolls for nothing vs 90 rolls for around 12 acceptable outcomes.
on the other topic:
when i'm at the scrip machine after playing larger events like rad rumble or eviction notice there often seems to be a grouping when it comes to the primary effect. as if every enemy who died in the same minute got the same primary effect on his drops. recently after eviction notice i had the exact same raider torso twice. obviously there is no way to prove this.
most likely you are just more sensitive when it comes to rolling effects on gear after you have been collecting cores and modules for days or weeks. when collecting all the loot after an event you expect nothing but useless trash anyway.
but that's it from me on this topic. even if changing servers is a placebo it at least makes you feel less bad about blowing all these cores and modules for mostly nothing.