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For the forest biome you have:
- Tier 0 - Showers
- Tier 1 - Rain
- Tier 2 - Light Wind
- Tier 3 - Storm
- Tier 4 - Flash Storm
- Tier 5 - Thunder Storm or Severe Wind
- Tier 6 - Heavy Rain
The Tier level corresponds to the little storm icon's wings, except Tier 1 which has two smaller ones. Of the 8 storms, 5 of them should have rain - Showers, Rain, Storm, Thunder Storm, and Heavy Rain.The way the weather works is you have your little forecast scrolling along the top right and for each block of time when the storm hits the storm that hits will be either the storm icon displayed or one higher or one lower tier.
So you end up with a case where a non-rain weather event is possible at every Tier time block except Tier 0. T1 can go up to T2's Light Wind. T3 can go down to T2 or up to T4's Flash Storm. And T5 has both a rain event and a non-rain event chance. A T6 forecast will never happen on Olympus normal in the forest area so Heavy Rain is very rare and I think a T0 forecast on open world is almost just as rare.
So the randomness I think you're experiencing is just non-rain events getting picked. The kind of randomness like flipping a coin 10 times in a row enough times you eventually get 10 heads in a row. It's gotta happen to someone, right?