I lost a 3 streak win in Party House

[Mallix]

Is there a rule that if you have 2 troublemakers, the next one has a 90% chance to show up?

[Mallix]

I had a party with 19 contacts (4 of them being troublemakers). Over three days, the first 3 party members were troublemakers and completely ruined my streak.

Can a math wiz calculate the odds of this happening?
The in between round, the troublemaker was detained so I had one less troublemaker in the second round. Third round I completely got ♥♥♥♥♥♥ again

[Sapphire Bullets]

If you click on the rolodex by the door (The white thing) you can see a list where all the possible guests are in terms of May Come In/At Party/Kicked Out Of Party. Using the first list you can calculate the rough odds of it.

In the early nights of a run it is going to feel like the Wild Buddies are always turning up just from confirmation bias.

Don't be afraid to end a night early. Even if you only have two wild buddies, four points is four points. Maybe enough for a Hippy or a Watchdog.

[Songbird]

Party House is an extremely lenient game to accommodate this sort of variance. Generally you can stop at 2 trouble (even if it's 4 popularity and 0 dollars) several times in the early game, stop every future day at 2 trouble, and still finish on time easily if you have any decent guests. My streaks tend to average around 15-20 nights and peaked at 34, and there are people who have hit 100 streaks.

A lot of people have really awful evaluations of the guests. Dancer and Greeters are absolutely garbage (Dancers are OK with photographers but there's often better investments, while being absolute, total trash without them, and Greeters are never good), Mr. Popular and Celebrity are OK but only worth buying in specific circumstances, dragons and mermaids are pretty good star guests, etc.

[Mallix]

So what you're suggesting is that if I have a party of 5000 and 4 of them are troublemakers. If I get two in a row, it's better to just stop even after calculating the odds?

It seems insane that I would get 3 troublemakers in a row twice before any of my other party members. Is calculating the odds useless? That seems counterintuitive to an otherwise labeled "strategy" game if the only thing that it comes down to is ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ luck? What a ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ joke

[The Letter F]

I feel like there is a higher likelihood of a trouble showing up fairly quickly after another - I've had massive rolodex's, and despite the incredibly unlikely odds, whenever I gambled I'd pay the price and get a third trouble.
It's better to not risk it and end the day early most of the time, unless the risk is necessary, or losing the day as wouldn't be a loss at all.

While skill is definitely going to let you win most games, luck is definitely a large enough component in the game that you can lose entirely because of it.
Not to mention the luck of which characters you can have. Having zero money making means, or only celebrity as your money making means, or only having trouble to make money but no ways to deal with trouble, or just having no ways to deal with trouble in general can make your game entirely dependent on luck.

Originally posted by Songbird:

A lot of people have really awful evaluations of the guests. Dancer and Greeters are absolutely garbage (Dancers are OK with photographers but there's often better investments, while being absolute, total trash without them, and Greeters are never good)

I'll agree with you on greeter, but I think dancer is quite decent in most situations.
If you have a driver or investigator, you are able to consistently get all the dancers;
If you have big money rolling in and have a large house, you're able to consistency roll all the dancers;
and as you mentioned, they pair very well with the photographer.
The dancer is just on the lower end of the big pop point earners though, so if money is a problem, she is a bad option given the house space she needs, and the need for other guests to make up for her lesser pop value (as you want about 20-25 pop, per round, at least when you're preparing to buy stars), but the old friends and trouble already in the deck is more than enough.

But my streaks aren't that high either, so I'm hardly an expert, so maybe they are terrible?
Someone with a 100 game streak come in here and cast a verdict!

[dathompson]

If you can't afford to lose a turn, just stop when the cat gets upset. It's annoying but most random builds are lenient enough for it to happen a few times.

3 turns in a row is quite something, though.

[Songbird]

Originally posted by The Letter F:

I feel like there is a higher likelihood of a trouble showing up fairly quickly after another - I've had massive rolodex's, and despite the incredibly unlikely odds, whenever I gambled I'd pay the price and get a third trouble.
It's better to not risk it and end the day early most of the time, unless the risk is necessary, or losing the day as wouldn't be a loss at all.

While skill is definitely going to let you win most games, luck is definitely a large enough component in the game that you can lose entirely because of it.
Not to mention the luck of which characters you can have. Having zero money making means, or only celebrity as your money making means, or only having trouble to make money but no ways to deal with trouble, or just having no ways to deal with trouble in general can make your game entirely dependent on luck.

Originally posted by Songbird:

A lot of people have really awful evaluations of the guests. Dancer and Greeters are absolutely garbage (Dancers are OK with photographers but there's often better investments, while being absolute, total trash without them, and Greeters are never good)

I'll agree with you on greeter, but I think dancer is quite decent in most situations.
If you have a driver or investigator, you are able to consistently get all the dancers;
If you have big money rolling in and have a large house, you're able to consistency roll all the dancers;
and as you mentioned, they pair very well with the photographer.
The dancer is just on the lower end of the big pop point earners though, so if money is a problem, she is a bad option given the house space she needs, and the need for other guests to make up for her lesser pop value (as you want about 20-25 pop, per round, at least when you're preparing to buy stars), but the old friends and trouble already in the deck is more than enough.

But my streaks aren't that high either, so I'm hardly an expert, so maybe they are terrible?
Someone with a 100 game streak come in here and cast a verdict!

I mean, if you literally have no other way to generate popularity, they are 4 popularity, sure. But that's just terrible considering how much they ask for: need to spend 28 upfront (because you can't just buy one early and get value off it over time like a mascot or caterer), and then you need to actually find all four of them consistently, which probably means your deck is so good it could win off any other popularity generation.

Popularity generators are numerous enough that the odds of dancer being the best available and worth buying are just ridiculously low.

[Mallix]

Ok... this is getting into unbelieveable territory.
I had a party of 24 people.
4 of them being troublemakers.
I get three troublemakers in a row. TWICE!!!!
Sure I could have ended my day but I was calculating the odds and thought "there is no way that I'm not getting a party member that can mitigate this, given the amount of hippies and bouncers I have in my inventory"

[Mallix]

Party house is slowly turning into worst designed game I have ever ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ played

[Hesti]

Originally posted by Mallix:

Is there a rule that if you have 2 troublemakers, the next one has a 90% chance to show up?

I firmly believe they are given priority to be near the top of a deck at the start of a round. It's still random, but the chance is higher than what the numbers would suggest.

[Songbird]

I mean, you seem to find it unbelievable that you experienced something that was a ~10% chance or higher depending on how many guests you'd drawn (a 2/(22-x) chance where x is the number of non-trouble guests drawn), even though this is more likely than not to happen a couple times in 25 trials. Happening twice in a row is a little unlucky, but odds are independent, so it's still over 10% at the point you're choosing to let in a guest.

Again, you generally don't need to push on 2 trouble to win. If you're extremely early in the day and your deck is already basically complete, then the difference between stopping and busting is minimal, and the ban for the next day does more, so you might as well push then, but busting is a whole lot worse than getting a little output while you're still building the deck. You generally have around ten days worth of extra time to allow for low-output days.

[Goatbrush]

I've defended the RNG in the past but I'm now leaning towards there being something at play which makes concurrent guests more likely, whether intentional or not. Not even just troublemakers but when I look back at the end of a day I often notice 3 or 4 of other guests streaking much more often than expected with random variance. I noticed one day recently where all of the guests were mostly all lined up in neat little cliques at the end of a day.

I accept it's easy to spot patterns where there aren't any though so I fully admit it might just be bias, but I dunno. It's also still a small sample but I'm at like 100 hours in Party House from challenge runs/multiplayer/speedruns and I've seen some *absurdly* low chances of things happen.

The 10% chance above is I think misleading because you have to account for the likeliness of the streak rather than the individual guest, getting 3 guests at any point isn't the issue. It is quite low chance of getting 3 of a kind off the top after the folio has built up a bit, and extremely low chance of getting that twice in a row, especially after presumably kicking a troublemaker out. I've also seen it happen a few times though.

But - I don't think it's something worth getting angry over, because I agree with what was already mentioned about it being something you can almost always play around. The game gives a LOT of leg room if you buy an efficient deck and even with bad luck, always ending on 2 trouble tends to result in a comfortable win vs 95%+ of seeds.

[Mallix]

Originally posted by Songbird:

I mean, you seem to find it unbelievable that you experienced something that was a ~10% chance or higher depending on how many guests you'd drawn (a 2/(22-x) chance where x is the number of non-trouble guests drawn), even though this is more likely than not to happen a couple times in 25 trials. Happening twice in a row is a little unlucky, but odds are independent, so it's still over 10% at the point you're choosing to let in a guest.

Am I stupid?
Sorry but how can that ever be a 10% chance?

Say I have a deck of 24 cards, 4 black (troublemakers) and 20 red (other guests). The probability of drawing 3 black cards in a row is calculated as follows:

[1] Probability of drawing a black card first 4 / 24 [2] Probability of drawing a second black card (given the first one was black) 3 / 23 [3] Probability of drawing a third black card (given that the first two were black) 2 / 22

Now multiply these together 4 / 23 x 3 / 23 x 2 / 22 = 24 / 12144
Simplifying = 1 / 506
So 1 in 506 chance or about 0.197%.

That is for the first day.
Let us now multiply this again (as we were talking 2 consecutive days of drawing the exact same) and we get this:
0.03809%

(This is not taking into account that I was forced to blame one troublemaker the first occurence, reducing the numbers of "black cards" to 3 on the ongoing day.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm probably going to look like a fool after my attempts at math.

[sgt johnson]

Originally posted by Mallix:

Am I stupid?
Sorry but how can that ever be a 10% chance?

Say I have a deck of 24 cards, 4 black (troublemakers) and 20 red (other guests). The probability of drawing 3 black cards in a row is calculated as follows:

[1] Probability of drawing a black card first 4 / 24 [2] Probability of drawing a second black card (given the first one was black) 3 / 23 [3] Probability of drawing a third black card (given that the first two were black) 2 / 22

Now multiply these together 4 / 23 x 3 / 23 x 2 / 22 = 24 / 12144
Simplifying = 1 / 506
So 1 in 506 chance or about 0.197%.

That is for the first day.
Let us now multiply this again (as we were talking 2 consecutive days of drawing the exact same) and we get this:
0.03809%

(This is not taking into account that I was forced to blame one troublemaker the first occurence, reducing the numbers of "black cards" to 3 on the ongoing day.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm probably going to look like a fool after my attempts at math.

You can do all the math you like, but no amount of calculations is going to change the fact that running with the wrong crowd gets you nowhere fast.

[Mallix]

Originally posted by sgt johnson:

Originally posted by Mallix:

Am I stupid?
Sorry but how can that ever be a 10% chance?

Say I have a deck of 24 cards, 4 black (troublemakers) and 20 red (other guests). The probability of drawing 3 black cards in a row is calculated as follows:

[1] Probability of drawing a black card first 4 / 24 [2] Probability of drawing a second black card (given the first one was black) 3 / 23 [3] Probability of drawing a third black card (given that the first two were black) 2 / 22

Now multiply these together 4 / 23 x 3 / 23 x 2 / 22 = 24 / 12144
Simplifying = 1 / 506
So 1 in 506 chance or about 0.197%.

That is for the first day.
Let us now multiply this again (as we were talking 2 consecutive days of drawing the exact same) and we get this:
0.03809%

(This is not taking into account that I was forced to blame one troublemaker the first occurence, reducing the numbers of "black cards" to 3 on the ongoing day.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, I'm probably going to look like a fool after my attempts at math.

You can do all the math you like, but no amount of calculations is going to change the fact that running with the wrong crowd gets you nowhere fast.

Gotcha. So what you're saying is that strategy matters nothing in this so called "strategy" game.
I've already commited myself to this idea of relying solely on hoping to get lucky not to be unlucky, as it seems to be the only thing you can do in this game. Any other tips to not go with the wrong crowd? I can have 30 party members and still get 2 troublemakers in a row 4 days in a row, completely ruining my run because I don't dare to open the door again, ending my day at 4 pop.
You sound like a pro so please share your deep knowledge on how to not open the door to troublemakers ;)