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As you suspected, the egg has no influence.
yeaaah is random as ♥♥♥♥ xD
The big difference with Hermes is that each of his boons counts as one. You can therefore improve your odds (and your re-roll odds) with each boon you accept. With Chaos, because each Blessing type carries any of 17 Curses, you can't really do that in a way that's statistically significant; you can accept Gagged Affluence and then stack it later with Doomed Affluence, and so on. This means Defiance is almost exactly as buried in the pile as it ever was.
I got 2 offers in one run, and then 1 offer in the next one.
Sadly, it is also much less useful now, as Strength is better than Eternity and with it you lose out if you take a single DD(but not multiple)
Even so, you need to get a chaos boon, lose a DD, then find chaos again. If you find that you keep your DD's fairly frequently then it essentially never appears.
You don't need to lose a DD
Also, would Chaos Boon from Embryo count? I think it should...
I was doing literally nothing but Chaos because, pre-patch, Defiance was the last thing to tick off the Fated List (and afaik Defiance is no longer on it). It took weeks of persistent pursuit to finally get it. They have changed the rate recently apparently, but it's still sure to be hard to get because of the maths of it all.
Chaos Boon from Embryo counts; I now have more than one encounter where Chaos's Legendary was offered when I only had one Chaos' boon not from entering his realm but from his keepsake.