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Depends how far you wanna take the Canon argument bruh. Persona Q is considered canon by Word of God, no other spin-offs are. However in PSO2 it is absolutely a fact that the Persona characters are canon, but Vice Versa? I doubt it.
I don't think this is a strawman at all so look at it logically and come to your own conclusion. Usually Word of God will say whether something is canon or not.
Persona Q and all of the dancing games (Yes, even Persona 3 Dancing) are canon. Shin Megami Tensei takes place in a multiverse where every ending and every choice is canon in at least one of them, and as Persona is a sub-series, it's safe to assume the same, especially since Persona 4 specifically references SMT multiple times.
That being said, Catherine itself is probably not canon, as it's confirmed to take place far, far into the future, long after 2009/2010 when the protagonists could talk to Vincent in P3P.