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Sure you may hit two 1 hp units from time to time, or you may manage to pair it with a magic power buff/artefact to make it somewhat viable. Those are rare or situational instances. If you manage to put 10+ damage on it or something it's... okay. But just okay. You'd rather have the upgrade for another spell anyway. Though a 20mp+consume upgrade is acceptable.
So yeah most of the time it'll be even worse than a torch as you might not even get the 1~2 hp target you want, and you won't get a morsel out of it most of the time... on a clan that relies heavily on getting morsel. It's too inconsistent and takes too much space in your deck to be called good.
I don't see myself ever picking plink as a secondary starter unless i'm with stygian or really want something different to switch things up.
Both are pretty bad mid-game onward, but at least Plink is useful for the first 2/3 maps.
Afterward, it can be upgraded with +20 SP and Consume, making it less of a brick
You actually had me until that last sentence. Well played :D
Plink can do good work as long as there are still waves with multiple 1HP enemies, of which there are quite a few in the first few circles. Of course, when you get the beefcake heavy compositions, Plink might suck worse than Shadesplitter. But when it's good, it's really good because it fits into a gap in Umbra's early game, the lack of sweep units and direct damage spells. It lets you wreck Clergyman-heavy makeups as well as Mark of Invasion challenges, and sometimes lets you tell conduits to go eat a ♥♥♥♥, which are not things you are always able to do early on with Umbra.
As for guaranteed wins, winning one fight isn't the only thing that matters, how you win matters a lot for the overall run. Being able to handle trials without hurting your core early on makes an insane long term difference, as does feeding your persistent units. That isn't limited to Plink, having a strong early game is always a good strategy. You might use some cards that are good early and don't scale very well but you are using them to get late game advantages in other places.