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Older gpus are notorious of breaking, crashing, losing performance, or even stopping working whatsoever after certain features are added to the gpu driver.
My old ass gpu had BSOD-level issues because of Phong shaders after certain version of drivers. Nvidia didn't even care to patch it. The only 2 choices I had - not to update my drivers, or hack out the Phong shaders out of the games I've played.
Except when it doesn't. Also, the update that included telemetry gave Nvidia gpus a severe performance damage, which, as you can guess, was never "fixed", because the only way to fix it would be to remove the said telemetry.. so no, not every update would bring you better performance. Sometimes, it'll take it away, forever.
You describe edge cases. 99.9% of the time it's most beneficial to maintain updated drivers.
It mostly boils down to difference in architecture, some local bit size discrepancies and all that voodoo bs, but eventually leads to odd behaviour from old hardware.
What you describe is called "obsolescence" and is the natural death of technology.
Buy a PC more than once every 10 years and this isn't an issue.
papalazarou and TH3 SU!C!D4L R4BB!T said, roughly, "there is no reason not to update drivers. Updating drivers is always about improving performance and stability". To which I've answered with "that is not always the case, and there are reasons to keep an older version of a driver".
Im on latest driver 23.9.2 and noticed a slight fps gain after last update.
It is also "not always the case" that a newer drug has less side effects for everyone, but your doctor is still going to steer you towards newer medicine even if there's a slight chance that in your particular case the results could be worse. Because the statistics say that the overwhelming odds are a better outcome with newer medicine.
The statistics say there are overwhelming odds (to the tune of 99.9%) that the results of maintaining driver updates are better than letting them slip behind regardless of the age of the card or the PC or any other factor.
It is simply bad advice to encourage people to use outdated drivers. It could, rarely, be a solution to a problem, but is much more likely to create problems.
These days, since Win10, most people don't even realize their PC is auto-updating their graphics drivers anyway.
"Statistics say" your mileage may vary and you should always be prepared to rollback. Perhaps, reading some reviews/benchmarks may be helpful.
General rule is you're better staying with older versions if the hardware is old and "get the bleeding edge" if you've got something released recently.