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Once you've got them bottled up you know where they are and you know where they're going to be, so even if you don't wipe them out you're still winning: every rebel skirmishing in the mountains is one who isn't able to rampage across the countryside.
Supposedly, new camps can't pop up in stable zones, however it takes a while for a camp to be detected, so it's possible for a camp to spawn shortly before a zone becomes stable, and then be discovered in that seemingly-stable zone.
From a realism point of view I don't know if this is an accurate mechanic, though I suppose it makes sense that prospective insurgents might, given the choice, travel to fight the good fight in a besieged rebel ministate rather than try to build their own from scratch.
Caves is winnable, but has its own specific mechanics to make it rougher than other maps.
Oh, indeed they can. You can also instantly detect them if you have fort there or a lot of initiatives boosting intel to get [?] before they start spawning insurgents with surprise attacks. Only zones they can't spawn in are those with troops and HQ.
Sounds like a logical way of dealing with random insurgent surges. I'll give this a try