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It's a big deal if that's fact, so is there a credible source that states that? Or is it from your personal experimenting? Or did someone just come up with that number?
It's a godawful feature and no idea why it exists let alone why it's on by default.
TL;DR: If you have the "karmic dice" setting enabled, enemies will hit (and crit) you significantly more often then they should (they "cheat"). The effect increases with your armor class. With an AC of 23 you will take 4x more damage than you should at this AC - making any tank build effectively useless. (charts in the provided link at the bottom)
Anyways, it was recommended there to turn it off if you want a true Dice-Experience.
as result, your 23 unbuffed AC not that much, as you probably noticed in prologue, your 1st level characters have 40% chance to hit level 8 demon
Karmic dice appears to "smooth" the rolling when compared with on-off for both combat and average checks (58 combat tests, playing the same turn with the main hand attack) and 39 skill checks is my sample size).
Essentially when Karmic dice was on, the enemy as well as my rolls were mostly from 3-17, with never having more than 3 hits or misses in a row, with skill checks it was more interesting as it seems you can "farm" good karmic dice by having a purposely bad at dexterity character and shooting with them constantly.
With Karmic dice off I had 3 critical hits in a row happen twice, something that didn't happen once with them, as well as 4 misses (1 critical miss), but the enemy seems to miss much more often, likely because their stats (generally) are not the best, and since karmic dice isn't there to help them hit past your ac...
Conclusion, there must be a formula different than the tooltip in the game that smoothes the rolling experience. So if you like to have some pseudo rng, karmic is for you, if you like the xcom experience, turn it off.
oh, wait hotfix /10 - " From now on, loaded dice will only bend RNG in the rolling character's favour. That means you will not be made to miss to make up for a lucky streak of hits. This change also applies to NPC's and enemies, so the effects on the relative challenge of combat should be minimal. "
TL;dr- i can't read and i need reddit to read for me
edit: yep it were turned on, damn silly that that one is the default option lol
Developers saying this option not change the challenge of combat.
I think they are more reliable than a random kid on reddit.