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Apparently there is a bad luck mechanic that boosts your chances each time you don't get the drop but I personally think that's just people fooling themselves.
I've googled it a few times and people say 5% so thsts just under 2% chance if getting the weapon you want, don't fall for the gamblers fallacy either.
the drop rate is abysmally low
plus there's the weekly rotation
i grinded like crazy last year before i got all the weapons.
the shotty took the most
"Adjusted Escalation Protocol weapon reward chances to be more deterministic.
Players improve their chances each time they defeat the boss." - From way back in the 1.2.3 patch notes, which I couldn't blame you for not reading, however
"EP Weapons drops were not touched and are still cumulative stream Boss drops" -Patch notes for 2.7.0, extremely recent. I don't know about you, but that sure is two sources directly from Bungie saying people aren't fooling themselves.
Having an ikelos weapon is basically equipping a fedora and neckbeard to your character, shoe the whole world what little life you have.
Thanks for the research on my behalf, makes me feel better about the grind, the chance increase must be complete ♥♥♥♥ then.