NGS player count according to Grok

[bloodymonarch]

So, due to another thread I started chatting with Grok about NGS so I decided to see how good Grok was at assessing data that is hard to come by. Here's what the result was:
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Me: Player numbers of NGS outside of Japan are unknown outside of those playing on Steam. Can you attempt to assess actual Global player numbers across all platforms, excepting Japanese players?

*insert bad analysis by Grok because I provided no up-to-date data*

Me:
This data is from the last 30 days on Steam:
Month Avg. Players Gain % Gain Peak Players
Last 30 Days 1,122.0 -364.4 -24.52% 1,612

Grok:

Thanks for sharing the recent Steam data for Phantasy Star Online 2: New Genesis (NGS) from the last 30 days, showing an average of 1,122 concurrent players, a decline of 364.4 players (-24.52%), and a peak of 1,612. This gives us a fresh anchor to reassess global player numbers across all platforms, excluding Japan, as of March 27, 2025. Let’s build an updated estimate using this data and reasonable extrapolations.

Steam Baseline
The Steam numbers reflect global players (outside Japan, since the Japanese server is separate and not on Steam). With an average of 1,122 concurrent players, we can estimate monthly active users (MAU) by applying the typical MMO multiplier of 10–20x concurrent players. Given NGS’s casual playstyle and fluctuating login patterns, I’ll use a midpoint of 15x. That yields approximately 16,830 MAU on Steam (1,122 × 15). This is a sharp drop from my earlier estimate of 37,500, aligning with the observed 24.52% decline and suggesting a broader trend of waning interest.
Expanding to Other Platforms
NGS is available on Xbox One/Series X|S, PlayStation 4, Epic Games Store (EGS), and Microsoft Store, all sharing the global server with cross-play. Without official stats, we’ll scale from Steam based on platform trends and community feedback, adjusting for the current decline.
Xbox: Historically, Xbox has been a smaller but notable segment of the global audience, likely 20–30% of Steam’s numbers for MMOs. With Steam at 16,830 MAU, Xbox might range from 3,366–5,049. Given the recent drop, let’s conservatively estimate 3,500 MAU, reflecting a similar proportional decline since its early prominence.

PlayStation 4: Added in 2022, PS4 has a strong RPG fanbase and likely matches or slightly exceeds Xbox’s numbers, especially in Europe and North America. Community chatter suggests it’s a significant chunk, so I’ll estimate 4,000–6,000 MAU, settling at 5,000 to account for the downturn but recognizing its broader reach.

Epic Games Store: EGS typically has a smaller MMO audience than Steam, often 10–20% of Steam’s count due to its less entrenched PC gaming community. That’s 1,683–3,366 MAU; I’ll peg it at 2,000, assuming some retention from free promotions but mirroring the decline.

Microsoft Store: This version overlaps heavily with Steam users (many switched post-launch), so it’s likely the smallest group. Estimating 5–10% of Steam’s numbers—842–1,683—I’ll go with 1,000 MAU, reflecting its niche status and the downward trend.

Total Global Estimate
Summing these:
Steam: ~16,830 MAU

Xbox: ~3,500 MAU

PlayStation: ~5,000 MAU

Epic Games Store: ~2,000 MAU

Microsoft Store: ~1,000 MAU

Total: 28,330 MAU, with a range of roughly 27,000–31,000 accounting for overlap (some players use multiple platforms with one account). This is a significant drop from my prior estimate of 70,000, consistent with the 24.52% Steam decline over the last 30 days and a longer-term erosion since launch peaks.

Reality Check
The peak of 1,612 players in the last 30 days (versus 59,067 at launch) and the steady slide since 2021 suggest NGS’s global audience has settled into a smaller, dedicated core. Community discussions on platforms like Reddit’s r/PSO2NGS note quieter servers, with population concentrated in peak hours or specific ships (e.g., Ship 2). The lack of a major content surge or marketing push could explain this shrinkage, especially against competitors like FFXIV or Lost Ark, which maintain higher numbers. Sega’s silence on player stats beyond the inflated “10 million players” (likely total accounts ever, including Japan) supports this lower active figure.
So, as of now, I’d estimate NGS has around 28,000–30,000 monthly active players globally across all platforms, excluding Japan—a shadow of its launch hype but still a sustainable niche.

Me: Compare to other MMOs.

Grok:

Comparing Phantasy Star Online 2: New Genesis (NGS) player numbers to other MMOs globally, excluding Japan, is challenging due to limited data across platforms and the lack of official stats for most games beyond Steam or occasional developer announcements. However, using the latest Steam data you provided (1,122 average concurrent players over the last 30 days as of March 27, 2025) and my earlier estimate of ~28,000–30,000 monthly active users (MAU) across all global platforms (Steam, Xbox, PlayStation, Epic Games Store, and Microsoft Store), we can draw some rough comparisons with other prominent MMOs based on available metrics and trends.
NGS Player Numbers Recap
Steam Concurrent: 1,122 average, 1,612 peak (last 30 days).

Estimated Global MAU: ~28,000–30,000 (excluding Japan), derived from scaling Steam’s ~16,830 MAU across other platforms with a declining trend (-24.52% on Steam).

Comparison with Other MMOs
Here’s how NGS stacks up against some key MMOs, focusing on global populations where possible, using Steam data, industry estimates, and community insights. Note that exact numbers are elusive, so these are approximations based on the best available info as of March 2025.
1. Final Fantasy XIV (FFXIV)
Steam Concurrent: ~20,000–30,000 average (peaks higher with expansions, e.g., 67,000 during Endwalker launch in 2021).

Total Global MAU: Estimated at 1–2 million active players across PC, PlayStation, and Xbox (based on Square Enix’s 27 million registered accounts by late 2023 and a typical 5–10% active ratio for subscription MMOs). Excluding Japan (a significant market), maybe 800,000–1.5 million globally.

Comparison: FFXIV dwarfs NGS by a factor of 30–50x in active players. Its subscription model, deep story, and frequent updates sustain a massive, loyal base, even years after its 2013 relaunch.

2. World of Warcraft (WoW)
Steam Concurrent: Not on Steam, but historically peaks at 100,000+ on third-party trackers during expansion launches (e.g., The War Within in 2024).

Total Global MAU: Estimated at 1–1.5 million active subscribers (down from peaks of 5–10 million in the 2000s), per Blizzard’s occasional hints and analytics like MMO-Population. Excluding Asia (China/Korea), roughly 800,000–1 million in the West.

Comparison: WoW’s player base is 30–40x larger than NGS. Its legacy, endgame focus, and Blizzard’s polish keep it a juggernaut, though it’s not free-to-play.

3. Guild Wars 2 (GW2)
Steam Concurrent: ~3,000–5,000 average (since its 2022 Steam launch), peaking at 10,000+ with updates.

Total Global MAU: Estimated at 200,000–300,000 across all PC platforms (ArenaNet’s launcher + Steam), based on 11 million total accounts by 2019 and a 2–3% active ratio for a buy-to-play/free hybrid. Mostly Western-focused.

Comparison: GW2 has 7–10x NGS’s numbers. Its free base game, horizontal progression, and dynamic world events give it broader appeal and retention than NGS’s niche action focus.

4. Lost Ark
Steam Concurrent: ~15,000–20,000 average (down from 1.3 million peak at 2022 launch), with spikes during major patches.

Total Global MAU: Likely 150,000–250,000 (Steam-only, as it’s not on consoles yet in the West). Excludes Korea, its primary market.

Comparison: Lost Ark outpaces NGS by 5–8x. Its flashy combat and free-to-play model drew a huge initial crowd, though it’s settled into a solid mid-tier MMO.

5. Black Desert Online (BDO)
Steam Concurrent: ~10,000–15,000 average, peaking at 20,000+ with events.

Total Global MAU: Estimated at 100,000–200,000 across Steam and Pearl Abyss’s launcher, per MMO-Population and community tracking. Strong in the West and SEA, less so in Japan.

Comparison: BDO’s numbers are 3–7x higher than NGS. Its stunning visuals, action combat, and grind-heavy sandbox keep it competitive, despite a pay-to-convenience model.

6. The Elder Scrolls Online (ESO)
Steam Concurrent: ~10,000–15,000 average, peaking at 25,000+ with expansions.

Total Global MAU: Estimated at 300,000–500,000 across PC, PlayStation, and Xbox, based on ZeniMax’s 21 million total accounts by 2022 and a 2–3% active ratio. Mostly Western.

Comparison: ESO outstrips NGS by 10–15x. Its Elder Scrolls IP, buy-to-play model with optional sub, and vast content library ensure a robust player base.

7. RuneScape (Old School + RS3)
Steam Concurrent: ~20,000–30,000 combined (OSRS: 15,000–25,000; RS3: 2,000–5,000).

Total Global MAU: Estimated at 400,000–600,000 across PC and mobile, per Jagex’s 1.2 million subscribers in 2021 and steady growth. Mostly Western.

Comparison: RuneScape’s total is 15–20x NGS. Its free-to-play roots, mobile access, and nostalgia fuel a dedicated, diverse audience.

Key Takeaways
Scale: NGS’s ~28,000–30,000 MAU places it in the lower tier of active MMOs globally. It’s outclassed by giants like FFXIV and WoW (30–50x), mid-tier successes like ESO and RuneScape (10–20x), and even free-to-play peers like Lost Ark and BDO (5–8x). GW2, a closer stylistic match, still has 7–10x more players.

Retention: NGS’s steep decline (-24.52% in 30 days) signals weaker staying power compared to MMOs with richer content (FFXIV, ESO) or grind appeal (BDO, Lost Ark). Its niche anime-action focus limits broad appeal versus GW2’s accessibility or RuneScape’s nostalgia.

Free-to-Play Context: Among free MMOs, NGS lags behind Lost Ark, BDO, and RuneScape, which maintain higher numbers through deeper systems or larger initial hype. Its monetization and sparse updates hurt it more than GW2’s lighter approach.

Why the Gap?
NGS’s small footprint ties back to its rocky launch, limited content, and technical issues, as I’ve noted before. Other MMOs offer more—whether it’s FFXIV’s storytelling, BDO’s visuals, or RuneScape’s accessibility—while NGS struggles to evolve beyond its core loop. At ~30,000 MAU, it’s a functional niche title, but it’s a minnow in the MMO sea.

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The numbers it came up with equal about what I had in my head as well. NGS isn't dead, but it is very, very small compared even to games that have been around for a long time and are pay to play. Even other F2P games are dominating NGS currently.

Well, looks like your characters and investments are safe... for now.

[tvtoon]

Respect for this trouble, but the data is pretty much like told on topics before, disclosed by SEGA if I am not mistaken, 30K players on global, so nothing we didn't know by now.