Dice roll statistics

[jb_quin]

Does it just happen to me that the dice rolls on Blood Bowl III don't seem random at all?

[ToZoR]

It's probably just happen to you mate. Randomness is a cruel mistress, sometimes you think she's made you a cuckold.
Nuffle do his tricks to us all.

[dunnothisguy]

Originally posted by jb_quin:

Does it just happen to me that the dice rolls on Blood Bowl III don't seem random at all?

"Seem" is very unreliable method of assessment. Until there will be possibility extract the data from some replays and analyze it, that's not a topic worth discussion, really. Some people already "seemed" to roll 3 skulls twice in a row, while in fact just not knowing how Loner works in general, or in Cyanide's game.

A thing to think about: somebody said in these forums that there are about 200-300 dice rolls happening during a single match. Now, probability to roll 3 skulls during block is about 0.5% What means that, on average, during your match either this, or some other event with a similar probabilty is almost ought to happen (not quite, though, it' perfectly normal for it to not happen at all in 2-3 matches - but then happen 2-3 times in one match as well, that's randomness for you).

I've seen marvelous events on the pitch sometimes, which I can't even estimate how probable. And seen reliable actions failed miserebly. And human's mind is especialy good at remembering bad things, not the good ones. Especially when we lose due to this unlucky few rolls (what often happens). I bet that if we analyze a dozen of matches of some coach, there will be tons of moments when they were lucky - while they'll be telling us that they only got some bad rolls.

[Legend]

I had a discussion on this with 3 games in a row of strange dice rolls. I don't see that discussion anymore ;) The Loner thing may be true and I'd call it a bug, but it didn't excuse the way the dice was rolling for me in the games. I'm still getting strange like games. Season 2 is where it started going wacky for me.

[brionl]

There are only 6 possible results on most of the rolls. You are going to get a *lot* of streaks of "bad luck", or "good luck". It's a good sign that the random roll actually is fair.

[Splinter]

Not this again. There is nothing wrong with the RNG!

[dunnothisguy]

Originally posted by Splinter:

There is nothing wrong with the RNG!

But can you prove it?

[Splinter]

Look at the BB2 discussion group. You will find plenty of information where people did statistics on it. BB3 uses the same one.

[dunnothisguy]

Originally posted by Splinter:

Look at the BB2 discussion group. You will find plenty of information where people did statistics on it. BB3 uses the same one.

I'm still not convinced....

[WulfByte]

From Discord in August 2023:
"
Hello, a little explanation about the RNG of Blood Bowl, identical for Blood Bowl 2 and 3:
https://steamcommunity.com/app/236690/discussions/0/1496741765131191182/
"

[VoodooMike]

Originally posted by Splinter:

Look at the BB2 discussion group. You will find plenty of information where people did statistics on it. BB3 uses the same one.

At this point the only thing we have are the developer's word on the matter. If that were enough then we wouldn't have needed the statistical analyses in the first place.

Until they put in some form of solid logging, like replay files, its still just Cyanide's pinky swear on the matter.

[brionl]

At this point, there is no reason to suspect that there is anything wrong with the dice roller.

[dunnothisguy]

Originally posted by brionl:

At this point, there is no reason to suspect that there is anything wrong with the dice roller.

we can always find one

[VoodooMike]

Originally posted by brionl:

At this point, there is no reason to suspect that there is anything wrong with the dice roller.

You don't need evidence when you've got faith, right?

[brionl]

That's correct. There is no evidence that there is anything wrong with the RNG.

[Nacon]

Oh no...I thought we got away with it this time :)