Rising key price EXPLANATION + Predictions!

This guide will attempt to explain to you why key prices are rising and why people are saying they will be 15 ref soon by using math, reason, and logic.

Background

This seems like a good place to start.

Keys have always been rising in price as the number of TF2 players has increased, and as more and more keys have been bought and added into the game. They started at around 2.55 Ref a few years back and are now surpassing 10 Ref.

So why is the price of keys rising?

All numbers and data were up to date on 11/18/2014, numbers and calculations may be slightly or drastically different depending on the amount of time that has passed since the posting of this guide.

Summary at bottom of post.

Misconceptions

These are by far the most common misconceptions about the rising of key prices.

1. In no way, shape, or form is this valves problem and they are not responsible for fixing it. What is happening is a natural occurrence in any real market.

2. This is not because people are greedy and want other players to be unable to purchase keys for ref.

3. The price of Ref does not determine the price of keys. Keys determine the price of Ref.

4. Backpack.tf is not to blame for currency prices


5. Shouldn't the price of keys drop because of the increase of keys in the game?
-In short no. (go to the next section to find out more)

First Reason and Explanation

The main currency of TF2 is pure metal. Meaning Refined, Reclaimed, and Scrap. Due to the increase of the number of keys in the game, pure metal has taken a hit and it requires more and more of it to purchase just one key.

You might be asking (or yelling) I thought Keys were the main currency of TF2!!!!!
It isn't.

-Keys can not only be bought in game with Metal, but also with real currency. This gives the key a fixed price; keys will never be worth more than what Valve sells them for. Also, there are no limitations in the key market. There will never be a shortage of keys to buy from Valve, it's a digital object. On backpack.tf you can't make a price suggestion to change the price you pay in real currency, but you can for how much Refined you pay.

-The price for Refined metal is not fixed and changes.

Some Math + Predictions

The problem is that in the last 150 days, 401,732 keys have been purchased from the Mann Co. Store which is causing the inflation of the price.
This is a 76.46% increase in the amount of keys in the game!

Before June 16th, there were only 525,399 keys in the game with a price of 8.55-8.66 ref. Now there are 927,131 keys in the game with a price of about 10.33 Ref.

It is logical to think that since there was a 76.46% increase in the number of keys in the game that there should be a 76.46% increase in the price of keys.

Yes and no. Three things can actually happen!!!!
-First is price of keys increase.
-Second is price of all items decrease
-Third: Both the first and second

The third option is more likely than just the first one or just the second one but they will not happen equally. The price of keys will rise faster than the fall of the price of every single item in the game.


SOME MATH!!!

So by taking 3 known numbers (Number of keys in past, price of keys in past, current number of keys in game) we are able to figure out what the price of keys should be, and what they will be.

76.46% of 8.66 Ref is 6.62 Ref
8.66+6.62 = 15.28 Ref


Based on this information the price of keys should inflate close to +/- 15.28 Ref within the next 150 days, If the number of keys in the game do not increase. If more keys are bought then this number will be higher.

Simpler Explaination + Second Reason

Still dont get it or just need a better explanation? Think supply and demand have something to do with it? Let’s do the same calculation with nicer numbers.

If there was a 100% increase in the number of keys, so let’s say 500,000 keys to start @ $2.50 each @ 10 Ref with Ref @ $0.25. Now there are 1,000,000 keys still at $2.50 from Valve, but @20 Ref with Ref at $0.125 each. Keys are still the same price $2.50, but Ref has decreased in value.


Again Refined metal is the main currency of TF2.



Going Further
If you look at the chart on backpack.tf for keys you never see the price decrease even though there are more keys in the game. Why? Because keys are backed up by valve. Just because Valve prints more and more keys doesn't mean that they will sell them for less. Even on the SCM the price of keys vollies between $2.50 and $2.35, but for different reasons.

And Further
Keys are kept constant at $2.50 from Valve so it doesn't really matter how much ref is in the game because if it did then there wouldn't be an infinite amount of keys in the game, there would have to be a finite number of keys to match the number of ref and as people used ref to craft stuff or if more weapons were crafted into metal would determine the price of keys.

Second Reason!

--The number of people who play TF2 has grown. And because of this much more Refined metal is being crafted which leads to lower demand, and lower cost of refined. This will result in the increase of the number of Ref it takes to buy a Key.

Third Reason

--Whenever there is a price increase for keys people always ask for more than the posted price on backpack.tf. Yes I know backpack.tf prices are just suggested prices for TF2 items, but you can never find anyone selling for the new price. Also, some people just want to get keys fast and are too lazy to actually find a lower asking price

Solution? Wait what? There is a solution to this problem?

Yes. Like the many reasons for the inflation of the price of keys there are also a few solutions, all of which can be implimented now.

1. Spend some of your keys by unboxing some crates!

Unlocking/unboxing crates is supposed to be fun. What’s the point of them collecting dust?
This advice was more for the people who have too many keys, the people who don't buy anything and keep their riches to themselves.


2. Stop buying keys from traders who ask for too much. Try to find sellers with lower prices they are out there, I just takes maybe a minute more.


3. Try crafting some hats of items instead of just Refined metal or start using your ref to build kits to reduce the influx of metal in TF2.

Summary

Just a quick summary.

Rising keys because:
-Static real currency set key price
-Influx of keys on the makret over a short period of time
-low demand for ref
-Key traders asking for more than the newly updated prices

My Predictions
-Going to go up to about 15.22 Ref within a few months
-Based on the current price of ref, should see it rise to about 13 ref

[Bane]

lol keys are 32 ref now XD

[Jane Spring Sale]

i think Refined Metal will not goes upper than 15 ref if End of The Line or Engineer vs Spy (i dont know yet if that update are confirmed or not) comes early

[ELECTROCHEMISTRY]

@SPYBUG96
Well, people need to know why and how it's happening, but it shouldn't even BE happening.
Also, thank you for pointing out it isn't Valve's responsibility to fix this.

but it would be cool if they did

[SPYBUG96]

@DUDE THIS GAME IS A NIPPLE
The math isn't required, I only use it to predict the future price of keys

[ELECTROCHEMISTRY]

It's sad that the price has gotten this bad that math like this is even required in the first place.

[SPYBUG96]

@beeter56
yeah, it would be good to do that.

[SPYBUG96]

@beeter56
No kwys will rise to be about how much ref you can buy for one. So if Ref = $0.20, and keys =$2.50 then keys should be around 12.55 Ref. It will only rie to about how much people are willing to pay

[SPYBUG96]

@beeter56
A number of things contributed to the stock market crash. But what led to the resession was people were buying stocks with loans from the bank, and when they couldn't repay the bank because they lost all of their money people rushed to the bank to withdraw all of the money they had in it, but the banks used that money to give out loans.
This would not happen, but

If people did start selling off keys, then Ref would get a bump in price, and would require less ref to buy keys.

It is sompossible for the TF2 market to crash because there are no banks, no government.

[SPYBUG96]

@The Burner #Buying Keys
Thanks, I'm glad you enjoyed it.

[Kasem]

I'm Sharing this everywhere ... Great Explanation