Beating a dead horse, I'm sure... but

[g.bacon]

I've been playing since 2007, and have yet to unbox an unusual hat. I've opened (and yes I've been semi-keeping track) roughly 240 crates since 2007.

I can't be alone in this, no?

Imagine what I could be getting with 240 keys... :/

[Ranko]

you could just buy an unusual for that much.

[Ranko]

I think, I dunno I'm too lazy to trade half the time

[Pwnage Peanut]

1. Get a lucky horseshoe
2. Find the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow
3. Find Waldo (GL he's ded)
4. Find 30 clovers
5. Shove them all up your ass.
6. Pray to Lord Gaben when you unbox a crate.
7. Thank me after you unboxed your Burning Flames Max Head with Orbiting Gabens which have Orbiting Bills which are surrounded Orbiting Earbuds.

[Littlefoot]

Dude, crates weren't even introduced until like September 2010. There is no way you can have unboxed crates sine 2007.

[Remi³]

After unboxing about 20 crates, I got an unusual. It's purely luck-based.

[NullVoid]

The average seems to be around 100 or so, but if you figure that's the average it's entirely possible the more unlucky people can unbox over 500 without seeing one.

Alternatively some lucky bastards get it on the first try.... random drop systems suck like that.