© A S☫heil presentation; First published 5 March 2023; Updated 25 August 2023


1. Table of Contents Updated 11 June 2023

2. Introduction Updated 31 May 2023

3. Background

4. First disclosure Updated 11 June 2023

5. First announcement

6. Notifications Updated 31 May 2023

7. Specs Updated 19 April 2023

7.1. Specs of the satellite Updated 19 May 2023

7.2. Specs of the launcher Updated 25 May 2023

8. Future plan Updated 19 April 2023

9. Forecast Updated 31 May 2023

9.1. Numeromancy Updated 11 June 2023

9.2. Space weather forecast Updated 31 May 2023

9.3. Weather forecast Updated 25 April 2023

10. Final announcement Updated 31 May 2023

11. Launch Updated 18 June 2023

12. Rocket stage recovery Updated 18 June 2023

13. Conclusion Updated 31 May 2023

14. Second launch attempt Updated 25 August 2023



April is the time of the year when traditionally North Korea launches its satellites.

This year, a space launch already announced in December 2022 will see this nation attempt to place a military satellite into orbit.

If 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1' ( 군사정찰위성 1호: Kunsajongch'arwisong-1 Ho) is successful, it could be the first functional one.

Indeed, Pyongyang has already placed 2 earth observation satellites of 100 kg and 200 kg into SSO orbit but both are alleged to have failed to return any useful data according to western media.


None of the 5 satellites launched by North Korea to date have been confirmed to work properly according to the western media. But this is disputed by the DPRK.

• 31 AUG 1998|12:07 The first attempt to launch from the Tonghae SLC LC-1 a North Korean satellite ended in vain, as the third stage of the Paektusan-1 launch vehicle failed shortly before it reached orbital velocity. Kwangmyongsong 1 (광명성 1) would have beamed songs from space, if it had reached a stable orbit.

• 5 JUL 2006|05:01 The first attempt to launch Unha-1 SLV from the Tonghae LC-2 with possibly the Kwangmyongsong-2 Unit 1 satellite. Failed and only rumored launch.

• 5 APR 2009|11:20 Kwangmyongsong 2 Unit 2 (광명성 2) was the second North Korean attempt from the Tonghae SLC LC-2 for a satellite to reach orbit. It reportedly carried a communication payload was to reach a 490 km × 1426 km × 40.6° orbit, but was lost in the first and second stages separation failure of the Unha-2 launch vehicle.

• 13 APR 2012|7:38:55 Kwangmyongsong 3 was launched on an Unha-3 rocket from the Sohae Satellite Center. Due to first stage guidance system failure, the launch was aborted by self-destruct.

• 12 DEC 2012|09:49:46 A second flight model of the satellite, Kwangmyongsong 3 Unit 2, was successfully launched in December 2012, but no transmission signals have ever been detected coming from the satellite by western foreign observers.

• 7 FEB 2016|09:00 Kwangmyongsong 4 launched on a Kwangmyongsong rocket (Unha-4) from the Sohae Satellite Center. It entered a sun-synchronous orbit of 465 km × 501 km with an inclination of 97.5°. No signals have been detected from the satellites by external observers.

• TBD Kwangmyongsong 5 (광명성 5) is a planned North Korean satellite. Reportedly the satellite is equipped with cameras and telecommunication devices. In late 2017, it was reported, that the Kwangmyongsong 5 satellite had been completed.


Three months after the successful launch of the Kwangmyonsong-4 satellite on 7th February 2016, probably the first mediatic depiction of the next satellite to be launched, though without any reference to the 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1'.

▲ [web.archive.org] |2|[archive.is] |3|[archive.is] Model of Kwangmyongsong-1, Kwangmyongsong-2 satellites and an unknown octogonal satellite with 4 deployable solar panels forming an 'x', displayed on the occasion of 10th May 2016 Kim Il Sun Square parade in Pyongyang.

▲ [web.archive.org] |2|[archive.is] |3|[archive.is] |1|[web.archive.org] Youtube 9th March 2017 video showing 9 unknown satellites.

12/31/2012 10:41:53

The North Korean lunar exploration program will use a new Unha-9 launcher, made of three stages, exceeding 40 meters total long. The first stage diameter will be about 3 meters.

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.is]

Photogrammetric Measurement and Analysis

▲ April 15, 2017 picture. Center: notice an Unha-3 represented left of a huge (meaning at least twice the size) Unha-9 model![web.archive.org]
2[archive.is]
3[archive.is]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.is]

Rough estimations:

Unha-3 first stage is ~8 pixel in diameter, for a known 2.4 meters

Unha-3 third stage is ~4 pixel in diameter, for a known 1.25 meters


Unha-9 first stage is ~9 pixel in diameter, therefore ~2.7 meters

Unha-9 third stage is ~6 pixel in diameter, therefore ~1.9 meters

Unha-9 total height is ~69 pixels, therefore ~37.7 meters

Conclusion this artistic representation suggests a ~3 meters diameter first stage and ~2 meters diameter third stage, perfectly fitting the previous assessments for the Unha-9.

NADA Conducts Important Test for Development of Reconnaissance Satellite

Pyongyang, December 19 (KCNA) -- The National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) of the DPRK conducted an important final-stage test for the development of reconnaissance satellite at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on December 18.

A spokesperson for the NADA said that the test was mainly aimed to evaluate the capabilities of satellite photography and data transmission system and ground control system.

The test was conducted in the mode of evaluating the processing capability and stability of data transmission devices while verifying the reliability of ground control system including photography control command and attitude control command for various kinds of cameras in the optimum environment simulating space environment after high-angle launch of a test-piece satellite into the altitude of 500km with one panchromatic camera for 20m resolution test, two multispectral cameras, video transmitter and transmitters and receivers of several bands, control devices and batteries, he said.

The test confirmed the important technical indices including the technology of camera operation in space environment, data processing and transmission capability of communication devices and the tracking and controlling accuracy of ground control system. The NADA said this is an important success which has gone through the final gateway process of the launch of reconnaissance satellite.

The NADA announced that it would finish the preparations for the first military reconnaissance satellite by April, 2023.

The results of the important test were immediately reported to the Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party of Korea. -0-

▲ [web.archive.org]1. [archive.ph] Sounding rocket used in the suborbital flight test

▲ [web.archive.org]2. [archive.ph] Images captured from space by the camera in the suborbital flight test

www.kcna.kp (Juche111.12.19.)

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

North Korea informed the International Maritime Organization of its plan to launch a satellite between May 31 and June 11, according to Japanese broadcaster NHK on Monday.

North Korea has also notified Japan.

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

▲ Notices to Mariners and Navigational Warnings Location Map.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]


▲ Google map with all previous satellite launches: Paektusan-1, Unha-2, Unha-3.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

Notice the impacts zones indicates that the new launcher first stage seems similar to the previous Unha SLV, but the second stage impacts several 300 km further south.

The ground track is also very different. If targeting a 97 degree SSO, it means that the second stage will correct its trajectory to avoid falling over the Philippines, and impact east in the Pacific Ocean.

Unknown whether there will be one or two dogleg manoeuvres.

If there is only one trajectory correction, which one of the second stage or 3rd stage will perform the necessary dogleg manoeuvre to reach SSO.

Unless there is two trajectory corrections, with both the second stage and third stage performing a dogleg manoeuvre.

▲ Two trajectory corrections, with both the second stage and third stage performing a dogleg manoeuvre.· May 29, 2023[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

Also, the payload fairing seems larger than previous Unha SLV, while the satellite is of similar size to the previous Kwangmyongsong-3/4. This could indicate that it contains a larger upper stage.

One of these recently disclosed in 2023 is a smaller variant of the Russian Breeze-M.

▲ New Iranian version Breeze-M liquid propellant space tug. 2023.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]


7.1. Specs of the satellite

What can be expected? A SSO orbit of about 450 km to 500 km launched from Sohae SLC LC-1 seems reasonable for a military reconnaissance satellite. 1[web.archive.org] 2[archive.ph]

The launcher might be the already proven Kwangmyongsong (Unha-class) SLV, unless National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) wants to risk its payload on a never tested next generation heavier SLV.

This new SLV would be made of the Hwasongpho-17 as first stage, with the Hwasongpho-15 as a second stage. An upper stage such as the Saman-1 could be used.

With a Kwangmyongsong (Unha-class) SLV, the mass of the satellite could expected to be below the 500 kg mark.

With a Hwasongpho-17/Hwasongpho-15 combination SLV, the payload could reach the 2000 kg.

Another new SLV might be derived from the Hwasongpho-18 ICBM. The payload could reach the 2000 kg at a 1000 km SSO.

Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Inspects NADA

Pyongyang, April 19 (KCNA) -- Kim Jong Un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and president of the State Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, inspected the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) on April 18.
...
He underscored the need to set it as a main thrust to possess weather and earth observation and communication satellites, in particular, to get thoroughly prepared for the disastrous weather, effectively protect and use the resources of the country, and immediately provide the possibilities for giving strong impetus to the scientific development of the national economy.
...
He also called on the educational and scientific research units at all levels to establish a system of actively participating in the development of application satellites of various uses, increase state investment for promoting the development of space science and technology, produce standardized and reliable carrier rockets on a full scale in step with the accelerated development of various satellites, and successfully build satellite launching sites reflecting the ideal and ambition for building a space power.
...
He set forth the militant task to organize a non-permanent satellite-launching preparatory committee to make sure that the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 completed as of April will be launched at the planned date, speed up its final preparations and firmly establish the satellite intelligence-gathering capability by deploying several reconnaissance satellites on different orbits in succession in the future.

▲ Video: Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Inspects NADA (8m08s). Apr 19, 2023[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

▲ 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1' as shown on the NADA Mission Control screen: with folded and deployed solar panels. [web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

▲ 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1' as shown on the NADA Mission Control screen.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

▲ 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1' as shown on the NADA Mission Control screen.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

▲ 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1' as shown on the NADA Mission Control screen.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

▲ 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1' as shown on the NADA Mission Control screen.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Inspects Preparatory Committee for Launching Reconnaissance Satellite

Pyongyang, May 17 (KCNA) -- The non-permanent satellite- launching preparatory committee for launching the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1, which is composed of scientists and technicians of the DPRK Aerospace Development Administration, national defence scientific research institutes and universities and scientific research institutes at all levels of the DPRK, is pushing ahead with its work at the final stage amid an intensive campaign for bolstering up the self-defence capabilities to attain the major five-point goals for developing national defence capabilities set at the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea.

Kim Jong Un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and president of the State Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), guided the work of the non-permanent satellite-launching preparatory committee on the spot on May 16.

The respected Comrade Kim Jong Un was greeted by leading officials of the Department of Munitions Industry and the Department of Science and Education of the Party Central Committee, members of the Aerospace Development Administration and the non-permanent satellite-launching preparatory committee.

After acquainting himself in detail with the work of the committee, he inspected the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 which is ready for loading after undergoing the final general assembly check and space environment test.

www.kcna.kp (Juche112.5.17.)

▲ 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1' ready for loading after undergoing the final general assembly check and space environment test.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

▲ 'Military Reconnaissance Satellite 1' ready for loading after undergoing the final general assembly check and space environment test.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

From the NADA MC image, the satellite shares some resemblance to the Iranian hexagonal shape Toloo-series Earth observation satellite.
But it differs notably from it, being much more advanced, with several pairs of side thrusters for orbit adjustments, four deployable solar panels positioned at 90 degree each in a cross pattern on the top of the satellite.

▲ Model of the Iranian Tolou-1 Earth Observation satellite.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

Another recent example can be seen in other satellite subsystems.

Here a picture of the Iranian Pars-1 satellite flight control system back in 2019. Note the cylindrical reaction wheel or fiber-optic laser gyroscope.

▲ [web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph] |3|[archive.ph] |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph] Pars-1 satellite flight control system. December 15, 2019.

And the same hardware presented on 19th April 2023 in North Korea:

▲ [web.archive.org] |2|[archive.is] |3|[archive.is] |2|[archive.ph] Three of those circular avionics boxes appear to be reaction wheels or fiber-optic laser gyros.

7.2. Specs of the launcher

▲ North Korean Hwasongpho-17/Hwasongpho-15 combination SLV (left) vs South Korean KSLV2 (Nuri) SLV. [web.archive.org]
2[archive.vn]
3[archive.vn]

▲ North Korean space launchers. 2020[web.archive.org]
2[archive.fo]
3[archive.is]

Possible introduction of a new launcher hinted in this article:

Development of Satellites Propelled in DPRK

Pyongyang, March 6 (KCNA) -- Pak Kyong Su, vice-director of the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA), was interviewed by KCNA on Sunday on occasion of the 14th anniversary of the DPRK's accession to the international outer space treaty.
...
The DPRK has made steady progress in the work to put the satellite on a multi-functional and high-performance basis and improve its reliability. It succeeded in developing high-thrust engine for carrier rocket and thus provided a sure guarantee for launching various kinds of satellites into relevant orbits.

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

First official image from video confirms a new space launcher 30% larger than the Unha SLV:

Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Inspects NADA

Pyongyang, April 19 (KCNA) -- Kim Jong Un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and president of the State Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, inspected the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) on April 18.
...
He underscored the need to set it as a main thrust to possess weather and earth observation and communication satellites, in particular, to get thoroughly prepared for the disastrous weather, effectively protect and use the resources of the country, and immediately provide the possibilities for giving strong impetus to the scientific development of the national economy.
...
He also called on the educational and scientific research units at all levels to establish a system of actively participating in the development of application satellites of various uses, increase state investment for promoting the development of space science and technology, produce standardized and reliable carrier rockets on a full scale in step with the accelerated development of various satellites, and successfully build satellite launching sites reflecting the ideal and ambition for building a space power.
...
He set forth the militant task to organize a non-permanent satellite-launching preparatory committee to make sure that the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 completed as of April will be launched at the planned date, speed up its final preparations and firmly establish the satellite intelligence-gathering capability by deploying several reconnaissance satellites on different orbits in succession in the future.

▲ Video: Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Inspects NADA (8m08s). Apr 19, 2023[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

▲ The new space launcher as shown in the NADA Mission Control screen.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

▲ Space launchers as shown on the NADA Mission Control screen: new space launcher on the left, Unha-class SLV on the right.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

Photogrammetric Measurement and Analysis

Image has been blurred, so rough measurement of new rocket using Unha-class as reference.

Rocket stage is ~3.87 m wide in diameter and ~43 m long. A bit wider than CZ-2 (3.35 m), should have enough space to install 4 single-chamber engines of 80 tf each, totaling 320 tf thrust at lift-off.

Stage 1: 3.87 m diameter x . m length
Stage 2: . m diameter x . m length
Stage 3: . m diameter x . m length
Launcher total: 3.87 m max diameter x 43 m length

▲ Rough measurement of new rocket · Apr 20, 2023[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

Launch complex

A new launch pad in construction at the Sohae Space Center could support a new class of space launcher.

The measured square shape exhaust flame bucket with edge of ~5.3 meter is nonetheless smaller than the Kwangmyongsong (Unha) SLV launch pad #1's edge of ~7.9 meter.

Unlike any previous North Korean launchpads, it shares with the Iranian's Imam Khomeini SLC lineage, a movable vertical integration tower surrounded by several lightning protection system (LPS) towers.

Furthermore, a diorama recently presented to Iranian President Raisi in December 2021 revealed a similar launch pad at the Chabahar SLC, and intended to support the Iranian 3.5 meter diameter solid-propellant Qaem SLV, able to place a 1'000 kg communication satellite into GTO by 2025.

Indeed the several meters deep (~10 m) of reinforced concrete forming the ground of the launchpad is clearly designed to support rocket stages of several hundreds of tons.

The absence of any visible fuel/oxidizer storage buildings in the near vicinity also points to a launch pad dedicated to solid fuel rocket.

▲ NADA's four launch pads at Tonghae SLC and Sohae SLC.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

Respected Comrade Kim Jong Un Inspects NADA

Pyongyang, April 19 (KCNA) -- Kim Jong Un, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) and president of the State Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, inspected the National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) on April 18.
...
He underscored the need to set it as a main thrust to possess weather and earth observation and communication satellites, in particular, to get thoroughly prepared for the disastrous weather, effectively protect and use the resources of the country, and immediately provide the possibilities for giving strong impetus to the scientific development of the national economy.
...
He also called on the educational and scientific research units at all levels to establish a system of actively participating in the development of application satellites of various uses, increase state investment for promoting the development of space science and technology, produce standardized and reliable carrier rockets on a full scale in step with the accelerated development of various satellites, and successfully build satellite launching sites reflecting the ideal and ambition for building a space power.
...
He set forth the militant task to organize a non-permanent satellite-launching preparatory committee to make sure that the military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 completed as of April will be launched at the planned date, speed up its final preparations and firmly establish the satellite intelligence-gathering capability by deploying several reconnaissance satellites on different orbits in succession in the future.

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

• produce standardized and reliable carrier rockets on a full scale
• More type of satellites: weather, earth observation and communication satellites
• More satellite launching sites
• deploying several reconnaissance satellites on different orbits in succession
• satellite intelligence-gathering capability

Following this successful next milestone, this will bring North Korea closer to it's stated goal to join the most elite club of lunar soft landing great powers, as the world only 5th nation, following the Soviet Union, the U.S., China and India.

AP Exclusive: North Korea hopes to plant flag on the moon

Aug 4, 2016

PYONGYANG, North Korea (AP) -- North Korean space officials are hard at work on a five-year plan to put more advanced satellites into orbit by 2020, and don't intend to stop there: They're also aiming for the moon, and beyond.

In an interview with The Associated Press, a senior official at North Korea's version of NASA said international sanctions won't stop the country from launching more satellites by 2020, and that he hopes to see the North Korean flag on the moon within the next 10 years.

"Even though the U.S. and its allies try to block our space development, our aerospace scientists will conquer space and definitely plant the flag of the DPRK on the moon," said Hyon Kwang Il, director of the scientific research department of North Korea's National Aerospace Development Administration.
...

Hyon said the sanctions are "ridiculous."

"Our country has started to accomplish our plan and we have started to gain a lot of successes," he said. "No matter what anyone thinks, our country will launch more satellites."

He said North Korea's long-term target is to use its satellites to provide data for crop and forestry assessments and improved communications. It also intends "to do manned spaceflight and scientific experiments in space, make a flight to the moon and moon exploration and also exploration to other planets."

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

We will use a powerful tool to predict the outcome of this 6th North Korean attempt at placing a functional satellite into orbit!

'Videomancy' is a cutting-edge predictive OSINT science focussed on finding clues for future world events through the study of hints intentionally leaked in movies, TV serials, documentaries and other video media.

Videomancy

David Blaine: Ascension (2020)[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph] is a TV Special program.

In 2020, Blaine performed the David Blaine Ascension stunt, which involved him floating while holding on to a cluster of 52 helium-filled balloons using a harness. The stunt took place on the morning of September 2, 2020, in Page, Arizona and was streamed live on YouTube as a YouTube Original program. Blaine managed to get to an altitude of 24,900 feet (7.6 km) above sea level (more than 20,000 feet (6.1 km) above ground level), before letting go of his balloons and parachuting down towards a flat ravine close to the initially planned landing zone. He landed successfully and without harm.

Transcript

David Blaine: Ascension (2020) 47-58 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:22,720 I can't imagine many people would ever dream of doing them my daughter was at the last one when she was about two years old it was so difficult and extreme that I decided right then and there that I would find something that would inspire her and not scare her even though this seems like every kid's dream Ascension is the most ambitious performance of my life ___ 542-571 00:18:02,559 --> 00:18:53,919 the natural biggest concern with weather is the wind right absolutely balloons are super sensitive to wind and for David's launch we need wind speeds of five miles per hour or less most people can't even feel five miles an hour but we have to be less than that or the balloons get uncontrollable a good example is this weekend when we tried to put you in the tether it was eight miles an hour that was too fast and too dangerous I remember that I was I was trying to get up to experience what he was going to experience and we couldn't get in those balloons and do it because eight miles an hour of wind was whipping them all over the place which is crazy now I'm standing out here now and it's feeling like hopefully we have good conditions it's it's early in the morning which from what I can tell is good for wind absolutely balloon operations are best in the morning when it's cool the air is stable fortunately we had a cold front come through northern Arizona yesterday it got really windy but it's like 10 degrees cooler this morning ___ 615-643 00:20:11,280 --> 00:21:04,080 so with a gas balloon to go up you release weight that allows the balloon to go up to pop balloons you're uh decreasing the weight uh each balloon weighs uh has a lift of 15 pounds so you pop a balloon you're 15 pounds heavy and comes down and we have 60 pounds of sand so if for some reason I lose consciousness which I most likely will not but if I do lose consciousness he can basically first of all he can bring me up which he wouldn't by dumping the sand the ballast or he can remote bring me down as well and the control that they'll have over the balloon if I couldn't function was they basically between him and Don can look at the wind because wind is like a river so the wind at different altitudes moves you in different directions so they can put me where they need to into a different river of wind which is a current that would take me where they need me to be ___ 715--728 00:23:56,640 --> 00:24:32,720 when you're doing it unlike hot air which is noisy gas ballooning is completely silent and one of the most amazing experiences I've ever had you actually feel like you're part of the wind as you move along without any sound whatsoever so still wow learning to fly balloons has exceeded all of my wildest expectations and now that I'm an officially licensed balloon pilot ___ 824-829 00:27:46,559 --> 00:27:58,240 these massive balloons is the fact that these will expand they'll go from eight feet in diameter to about 10 feet because they do the same thing as these balloons so there's more drag ___ 1554-1576 00:55:47,280 --> 00:56:25,359 it's closer to 50 feet tall 50 feet tall and there's 52 balloons -52 52 cards yeah that may have something to do with it I like that um and the balloons have helium in them how much if you just let those go how much lift I guess that's a math question how many pounds of lift is 50 helium balloons right now yeah so an 8-foot balloon gives us about 15 pounds of uplift most of this is an eight foot diameter balloon we also have five and a half and four foot diameter balloons and the smaller the balloon the less the lift the more we can dial it in gotcha and when you're popping balloons -are you only popping small ones or big ones we're only popping big ones actually so those those are for big adjustment ___ 479-484 00:15:44,959 --> 00:16:17,600 I have another free hand ready look all these balloons are for papa wow yeah it's a tent out of balloons let's do a picture of us together hold on ready okay I love you, je t'aime

Analysis

The documentary's starting screen states 'This is a research and development flight test demonstration'.

This stunt seems to be a reconstruction of what the Nipponese 'Operation Wind Velocity 0' flight could have been. Thus validating the concept of stealth solo balloon flight for nocturnal commando infiltration behind enemy lines.

Knowing that David Blaine specializes in life-threatening extreme performances of the level of the experimentations on live human subjects conducted in German concentration camps and Manchuria's Unit 731.

Furthermore, the combined payload capacity of the 9'300 Nipponese transpacific hydrogen balloons sent in 1944 toward North America reaches above 400 tonnes if one 10 meters diameter balloon can carry 45 kg of payload.
However, a 20 meters diameter balloon, believed to be the largest practicable size, could carry a useful load of over 1 tonne at 9'000 meter altitude. |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]

▲ [web.archive.org] 3[archive.ph]. [archive.ph]David Blaine: Ascension (2020) videomancy: 'This is a research and development flight test demonstration', dedicated to DB's beloved daughter, 'I love you, je t'aime'.

Here the key word is found to be I love you, je t'aime.

Please pay attention, as this step is very important.

This hint indicates that in this new era, starting from now onward, the key to success is determined by the love for one's daughter.

It differs from the previous 1970s generation precocious 11 year-old child genius, preferably male.

In line with the new girl empowerment era.

Videomancy

Bye Bye Jupiter さよならジュピター (1984)[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph] is a Japanese science fiction film directed by Sakyo Komatsu and Koji Hashimoto and co-produced and written by Komatsu. An early draft of the film's story was novelized by Komatsu two years prior to its release as Sayonara Jupiter, which won the 1983 Seiun Award.

The year is 2125. Earth's population has swelled to 18 billion, while colonies throughout the solar system are home to an additional 5 billion people. While attempting to drive mankind's legacy beyond the solar system, these outer space colonists are engaged in a search for resources and energy, in an effort to tame the harsh environment of space.

Chief Engineer Honda Eiji (Tomokazu Miura) aboard the Jupiter-orbiting Minerva Station is head of the Jupiter Solarization Project (JSP), where a gigantic space particle accelerator will produce beams of neutrino-antineutrino to start a chain reaction of nuclear fusion.

Among many futuristic hightechs that would make it to the commoners' daily life within the next decades (by the 1990s), notepad screen, video conference, fiber optics, wireless in-ear headset, handheld mobile phones, pen-size microphones, and even smaller coin-size 'Automatic Language Transmitter' are being features.

Also depiction of both water on Mars and the Oort Cloud of comets.

▲ [web.archive.org] 4[archive.ph]. [archive.ph] Bye Bye Jupiter さよならジュピター (1984) videomancy: gigantic space particle accelerator producing beams of neutrino-antineutrino to start a chain reaction of nuclear fusion.

We see that in this movie, Bye Bye Jupiter さよならジュピター (1984), the savior of mankind, Carlos Angeles the JS Project Reaction Team Lead is a 11 years old boy.

Now let us examine the North Korean case.

On the occasion of the test-fired a new-type ICBM on 18 November 2022, the official press was quoted as saying:

a crucial milestone in bolstering up the nuclear forces of the DPRK, together with his beloved daughter and wife, to personally guide the whole course of the test-fire

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

▲ [web.archive.org]5. [archive.ph] 'Together with his beloved daughter'.

▲ [web.archive.org]6. [archive.ph] 'Together with his beloved daughter'.

▲ [web.archive.org]7. [archive.ph] 'Together with his beloved daughter'.

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

Nomenmancy

Nomenmancy is the science of finding clues pertaining to the Matrix through the study of VIPs' names.

• Kim Ju Ae, born c. 2012–2013 is the daughter of North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un and his wife Ri Sol Ju.

Trait: Dismal Enigma Intelligence +30%

Kim The Strategist (French: Qui me jouait 1[web.archive.org]2[archive.ph]1[web.archive.org]2[archive.ph]1[web.archive.org]2[archive.ph]; Meaning: who plays with me -> who chose her strategy)

All indicate that if Kim Ju Ae the beloved daughter guides the coming April space launch, the mission should be a success.

▲ 'I can beat absolutely anyone... But that thing...'[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

Forumancy

Forumancy is the science of finding clues pertaining to the Matrix through the study of internet content, including state news agencies, social media, forum and BBS.

In a recent twitter post dated 28th February 2023, possibly the first unofficial disclosure of future North Korean Lunar Mining Activities·

▲ Hint at possible North Korean Lunar Mining Activities· Feb 28, 2023[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

This seems not so far-fetched, as depiction of North Korean lunar base have already been revealed in the recent past:

Among the many new Chinese space companies, SPACETAI (太瀚航天) has officially disclosed plan to colonize both the Moon and Mars. 1[web.archive.org]2[archive.ph]1[web.archive.org]2[archive.ph]

Another Chinese space company, AAENGINE (西安空天引擎科技有限公司) has officially disclosed plan to colonize the Moon. 1[web.archive.org]2[archive.ph]

The use of VTVL Super-Heavy-Lift Launchers is revealed in an official 2021 promotion video.

▲ AAENGINE (西安空天引擎科技有限公司) official video. 空天引擎概念片。2021-10-09 [web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

Unequivocal landmark:

▲ The Ryugyong Hotel 330-metre-tall pyramid-shaped skyscraper in Pyongyang, North Korea. [web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

9.1. Numeromancy

We will use a powerful tool to predict the date of the launch window of this 6th North Korean attempt at placing a functional satellite into orbit!

'Numeromancy' is a cutting-edge predictive OSINT technique focussed on finding clues for future world events through the study of the science of numbers.

Lucky and Unlucky the Korea Way

• The number 9 in East Asia
  
  Since Nine, the highest single-digit number in base ten, stands for completeness and eternity, many emperors in the ancient China love the number a lot. ‘Nine Continents’ is used to describe the large territory of an empire. The emperors wore Nine-dragon Imperial Robes, ordered to construct Nine-dragon Walls and other buildings with relationship with number 9 in the imperial palaces, to show their great power, hope for longevity, and eternal reign of their empire.
  
  ▲ Ultimate evolution of the Long March space launch vehicle family, the CZ-9, for Moon landing, with 140 T LEO capability. April 15, 2017 CGI. 【长征九号/CZ-9】爱好者制作的想象图[web.archive.org]
  1
  1[web.archive.org]
  2[archive.ph]
  3[archive.ph]
  1[www.zhihu.com]
  2[archive.ph]

• The number 9 in North Korea
  
  The North Korean Supreme leadership and the number nine.
  
  It all started at the time of Korea's liberation from Japanese occupation, when there were eight shamans representing the eight provinces of Korea. Out of these, the strongest shaman was thought to be the one from Pyongan-do. He is said to have told Kim Il Sung that the destiny of his bloodline was aligned with the ninth number, which is considered auspicious in East Asia.
  
  Perhaps it was because of this that Kim Il Sung declared the founding date of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea to be 9 September. Although there were five provinces at the time, he increased the number to nine. The Supreme Guard Command, Kim Il Sun's personal bodyguard corps, was named Unit 963 (double nine is an especially lucky combination).
  
  The Supreme leadership has its own food chain, also using the number nine. Throughout North Korea you will find so-called No 9 farms and No 9 work details, specially assigned by the central party's financial administration department. Their produce is used to feed the supreme leadership, and these meals are called No 9 products.
  
  Kim Jong Il is said to have repeatedly stressed the fact that his birthday fell on 16 February (1+6+2=9). He decreed that the numberplates of his vehicles should read 2.16; and then, so as to disguise his personal vehicles, assigned this as a common numberplate for all of North Korea's inner elite.
  
  Kim Jong Il was appointed to the highest military post on 24 December (2+4+1+2=9). His appointment as party secretary, which effectively formalised his powers, was made three years and three months after the death of his father, Kim Il Sung.
  
  Applying this to recent North Korean history, we note that Kim Jong Il gave his son, Kim Jong Un, his first public role as general of the Korean People's Army on 27 September 2010 (2+7=9, plus the 9th month, equals double nine). On 11 April (20)12 (1+1+4+1+2=9) Kim Jong Un was appointed first secretary of the Korean Workers' party. Then on 18 July 2012, he was appointed to the rank of marshal.
  
  When North Korea makes international news with an impending rocket launch or nuclear test, outside analysts often cite recent birthdays of the Kims, or other state anniversaries, as influencing the choice of date. But a closer look suggests it has more to do with the number nine.
  
  The country's first nuclear test took place on 9 October 2006. The second space launch was on 5 April 2009 (5+4=9 and nine of 2009, double nine). Another one was successfully launched on 12 December 2012 (1+2+1+2+1+2=9). There was a nuclear test on 12 February (20)13 (1+2+2+1+3=9). A recent North Korean video released on YouTube, in which the first North Korean manned spaceship is launched, features a rocket labelled Unha-9.
  
  ▲ Unha-9 as depicted in the lobby of the Koryo Hotel in Pyongyang back in October 2013. [web.archive.org]
  2[archive.is]
  1[web.archive.org]
  2[archive.is]
  
  
  1[web.archive.org]
  2[archive.is]
  1[web.archive.org]
  2[archive.ph]

Analysis of past launches:

31 AUG 1998 Kwangmyongsong-1: 3+1+8=12 : over
5 JUL 2006 Kwangmyongsong-2-1: 5+7=12 : over
5 APR 2009 Kwangmyongsong-2-2: 5+4=9| (20)09 = double 9
13 APR 2012 Kwangmyongsong-3-1: 1+3+4=8 : too short
12 DEC 2012 Kwangmyongsong-3-2: 1+2+1+2+1+2=9
7 FEB 2016 Kwangmyongsong-4: 7+2=9 | 2016=2+0+1+6=9 double 9
31 MAY 2023 Malligyong-1: 3+1+5+=9

Forecast of next favorable lucky date for launch windows:

31 May (2023): 3+1+5=9
3 June (2023): 3+6=9
2 July (2023): 2+7=9
1 August (2023): 1+8=9
1 December (20)23: 1+1+2+2+3=9
2 January (20)24: 2+1+2+4=9
8 January (2024): 8+1=9
1 February (20)24: 1+2+2+4=9
7 February (2024): 7+2=9

9.2. Space weather forecast

published: Saturday, April 22, 2023 13:25 UTC

A full-halo CME, associated with an M1 (R1-Minor) flare, was observed on 21 April. The CME is likely to cause G1 (Minor) to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming beginning late on 23 April to 24 April (UTC).

▲ On 21st April 2023 large magnetic filament snaking across the sun's southern hemisphere exploded, hurling a cloud of debris toward Earth.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

▲ The CME should reach Earth during the early hours of 24th April between the hours of 00:00 and 12:00 UT.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

▲ G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm Watches 23-24 April, 2023[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

Monday 24th April 2023 5:00 UTC is 14:00 Pyongyang Time.

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Arriving earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on April 23rd at 17:37 UT, sparking a severe G4-class geomagnetic storm.

The storm was caused by a CME hitting Earth's magnetic field. Minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm remain possible on March 24-25 as Earth exits the CME's wake. |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]

G4 Severe
• Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
• Other systems: satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]

Fluxes of particles with energies ≥ 10 MeV (warning threshold) have reached 16.7 protons/cm2/sec/ster at 18:20 UT. Single Event Upset rates in spacecraft electronics increase with high fluxes since there is a higher likelihood of impact on a sensitive location. |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]

The geomagnetic storm rated at Kp=8 lasted from 2:00 to 8:00 AM North East Asian Time. It sparked auroras visible in all of North East Asia. |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]

This geomagnetic storm was the most severe of the 25th Solar Cycle that started in December 2019. |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]

ANOTHER CME IS COMING: But this one will not cause a severe geomagnetic storm. Unlike the CME that struck Earth directly on March 23rd, the next CME will deliver only a glancing blow. It was hurled into space on April 24th by an explosion in the sun's southern hemisphere. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on April 27th and 28th when the CME arrives.

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

G1-class geomagnetic storms Impacts (Minor)
• Spacecraft operations: Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

▲ April 24th explosion in the sun's southern hemisphere.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

Space Weather Conditions on 31st May 2023:

Predicted 2023-05-31 UTC
G (None) Geomagnetic Storm Impacts

Predicted 2023-06-01 UTC
G (None) Geomagnetic Storm Impacts

Predicted 2023-06-02 UTC
G1 (Minor) Geomagnetic Storm Impacts
Spacecraft operations: Minor impact on satellite operations possible.

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

9.3. Weather forecast

As of 23th April 2023: Mostly overcast until the end of the month. Rain probability from 25th to 27th April 2023. 1[web.archive.org] 2[archive.ph]

10. Final announcement

Oprindeligt skrevet af kcna:

Ri Pyong Chol Makes Public Stand for Bolstering up Capability for Self-defence

Pyongyang, May 30 (KCNA) --

The DPRK's military reconnaissance satellite No. 1 to be launched in June and various reconnaissance means due to be newly tested are indispensable to tracking, monitoring, discriminating, controlling and coping with in advance in real time the dangerous military acts of the U.S. and its vassal forces openly revealing their reckless ambition for aggression as time passes by and to strengthening the military preparedness of the armed forces of the DPRK.

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

11. Launch

Oprindeligt skrevet af kcna:

KCNA Report

Pyongyang, May 31 (KCNA) -- The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) made public the following report on Wednesday as regards an accident occurred during the launch of military reconnaissance satellite:
The National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) of the DPRK launched a military reconnaissance satellite, "Malligyong-1", mounted on a new-type carrier rocket, "Chollima-1", at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Cholsan County of North Phyongan Province at 6:27 on May 31, Juche 112 (2023), as scheduled.
The carrier rocket "Chollima-1" fell to the West Sea of Korea after losing thrust due to the abnormal starting of the second-stage engine after the separation of the first stage during the normal flight.
The NADA spokesperson attributed the failure to the low reliability and stability of the new-type engine system applied to carrier rocket "Chollima-1" and the unstable character of the fuel used, saying that scientists, technicians and experts concerned start discovering concrete causes.
The NADA said that it would thoroughly investigate the serious defects revealed in the satellite launch, take urgent scientific and technological measures to overcome them and conduct the second launch as soon as possible through various part tests. -0-
www.kcna.kp (Juche112.5.31.)

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

Mission Debriefing

The name Malligyong-1 《만리경-1호》 (10'000 Li Telescope 1 Unit 1, “萬里鏡－１”号#1) means a telescope. The name Cholligyong (천리경, 1'000 Li Telescope, 千里鏡), was what telescopes were called in the late Choson period when they were first imported in 1609 from the Great Ming Dynasty of China. |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]

The mass of the satellite is said to reach 300 kg, making it the heaviest payload among all North Korean space launches to date. It is 1.3 m in length. The optical resolution is estimated between 1 to 3 meter. |1|[namu.wiki] |2|[archive.ph]

While North Korea uses the name of Kwangmyongsong as a symbol of Kim Jong Il, whose birthday is also called 'Kwangmyongsongjol', the Unha SLV's name is derived from the name given to Kim Jong Un, and means 'politician descended from heaven'.
Chollima (《천리마-1》, “千里马－１”型新型卫星运载火箭) is a legendary horse in the Chinese classics that runs a thousand li in a day. Since the 3rd century BCE, the qianlima was used as a metaphor for exceptionally talented people and animals, such as Red Hare. Geniuses in obscurity were called thousand li horses who had not yet met their Bole (mythological horse-tamer).
In clear, this could mean that the child-General Kim Ju Ae is associated with the name Chollima, and that we will soon enter a new historical era. 1[web.archive.org] 2[archive.ph]

▲ Forumancy: speculative Chollima mission patch from April 2020 circulated in Chinese military forum. 朝鲜千里马号（천리마）亚轨道载人航天飞行任务徽章想像图.[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.is]
|3|[archive.is]

Official picture of the launch

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|3|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]▲ Official picture of Chollima-1 SLV launched from Sohae LC-2. (Juche112.6.1.)

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|3|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]▲ Official picture of Chollima-1 SLV launched from Sohae LC-2. (Juche112.6.1.)

▲ Provisional CGI rendering of the Chollima-1 SLV compared to the Hwasongpho-17 ICBM and Unha SLV.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

Payload fairing is about 3 meters in diameter, larger than the first stage. This could mean the Chollima-1 SLV it is intended to place multiple satellites into orbit in a single launch.

Four engines are clearly visible in the first stage. Burning likely the same N2O4/UDMH of the Hwasongpho-17 ICBM. Also Sohae LC-2 is identified as the launchpad. Diameter and height are still debated in the media.
Absence of visible frost rules out a cryogenic second stage or third stage.

▲ North Korea’s disclosed space launchers: Paektusan-1, Unha-2, Unha-3, Kwangmyongsong (Unha-4), Chollima-1. · Jun 2, 2023[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

▲ Orbital launch attempts (12/13) by both North Korea and South Korea, as of 31st May 2023. · Jun 3, 2023[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

Launch pad

The Sohae Satellite Launch Center newly constructed second launch pad was used according to South Korean source. |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]

▲ Sohae Satellite Launch Center LC-2 on 30th May 2023.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

▲ Satellite imagery of Sohae LC-2 taken at 10:30am 31st May 2023, 4 hours after launch.[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|3|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]▲ Close up of coastal launch pad on May 31, 2023.

Rocket stage impact

The rocket splashed 200 km from Eocheong which is consistent with the planned stage 1 impact area.

▲ Stage 1 impact area as planned.· May 31, 2023[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|3|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

Future Notice

Pyongyang, June 4 (KCNA) --

As IMO responded to the DPRK's advance notice on its satellite launch with the adoption of an anti-DPRK "resolution", we will regard this as its official manifestation of stand that the DPRK's advance notice is no longer necessary.

In the future, IMO should know and take measures by itself over the period of the DPRK's satellite launch and the impact point of its carrier and be prepared for taking full responsibility for all the consequences to be entailed from it.

www.kcna.kp (Juche112.6.4.)

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

12. Rocket stage recovery

Normally, recovery of rocket stages are governed by international laws. But, South Korea will not return the stolen Chollima-1 SLV stage, as it sees the launch as a breach of previous UNSC resolutions. While having itself launched over the last years 3 Nuri SLVs in a row as it pleases totally unchecked. Of course, the more advanced technology of the DPRK might be the real reason behind this noonday highway robbery, in light of how inefficient the Nuri's turbopumps are.

▲ Part of what the North Korean space launch vehicle that crashed into the sea off the west coast of the Korean Peninsula on Wednesday morning after being recovered by South Korea the same day.[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|3|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

▲ The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff recovered a North Korean space launch vehicle stage in the waters 200 km west of Eocheong Island this morning.[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|3|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

▲ Recovery operation by South Korea of a Chollima-1 SLV stage.[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|3|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

The South Korean Navy is trying to recover the 15-meter part that currently lies at a depth of 75 meters underwater in the Yellow Sea. The retrieval may take two more days. |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]
|3|[archive.ph]
|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]▲ From South Korean media reports the object ROK is attempting to recover is 15m long which if that is second stage then possible one of these two sections of the second stage. · Jun 1, 2023

China and ROK competing to recover North Korean rocket debris, data suggests

June 9, 2023

Ship records show uptick in Chinese patrols in Yellow Sea, as source says Beijing may seek to retrieve wreckage for DPRK
...
“The rights to the debris will fall to the quickest, most capable salvage responders,” Neil Watts, a former member of the U.N. Panel of Experts [said]..
...
Both South Korea and China can likely claim the debris under the United Nations Conventions on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), he added.

▲ Chinese vessels near the area where South Korean authorities are searching for the debris of a North Korean rocket on June 8, 2023.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

June 16, 2023

The South Korean military has retrieved a sunken part of an ill-fated North Korean space rocket from the Yellow Sea, officials said Friday, capping a weekslong salvage operation hamstrung by poor underwater visibility, fast currents and other obstacles.

It raised the wreckage, presumed to be part of the rocket's second stage, Thursday evening, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said,

On the same day, the South Korean military identified the wreckage when it splashed into the waters some 200 kilometers west of the western island of Eocheong. But it dropped to the sea floor at a depth of 75 meters due in part to its heavy weight.

The lifted wreckage was around 12 meters long -- shorter than previously thought -- and 2 to 3 meters in diameter. The large portion of the rocket, thought to be about 30 meters long in total, could help elucidate how far North Korea's rocket technology has come, observers said.

It was split into two parts, as the upper 2.5-meter-long section broke off due to a crack that had widened while being transported to the vessel.

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

[단독] 인양해 보니 2단 엔진이 없다 …한미 합동 조사
2023.06.16
출처 : SBS 뉴스
[Exclusive] When I lifted it, "there is no 2nd stage engine"... Korea-US joint investigation

However, our coverage confirmed that the salvaged wreckage did not have an engine, which could be said to be the core of the North Korean rocket. It seems to have fallen off somewhere in the process of crashing into the sea, but we and the US plan to conduct a joint investigation.

It is for this reason that the military announced that it had salvaged the upper part of the second-stage propellant tank, not the entire second-stage propellant tanks.

After the North Korean rocket exploded in the air, it disintegrated into about 180 pieces and fell into the West Sea.

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

2023年 06月 16日 20:58

据推测，被打捞出水的运载器二级箭体为铝合金材质，长约12米，上部直径2.3米，下部直径2.8米。箭体上部约2.5米长的部分在打捞过程中脱落

According to Yonhap Chinese, the upper part's diameter is 2.3 m, bottom diameter is 2.8 m, length about 12 m, with the 2.5 m interstage section that fell off the length is 14.5 m.

1[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]

▲ Youtube Video: 동체에 '천마'…북 2단 추진체 보름 만에 인양 / SBS 8뉴스 Jun 16, 2023[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

Provisional Photogrammetric Measurement and Analysis

By resizing all internet CGI of the Chollima-1 SLV with the official KCNA picture's second stage diameter, it is obvious that the usual paid trolls have been busy lately. And with ulterior motives.

These are the ones listed by google search.

Indeed, none of them have respected the proportions of the 3 stages and fairings. Not to mention the farcical undersized diameters.

Consequently the resulting total length of the Chollima-1 SLV vary from about 27 meters to about 60 meters.

And the number of first stage engines vary from 1 to 4.

Note that South Korean media report a total length of about 30 meters and 4 engines in the first stage.

▲ Lineup of internet CGIs of the Chollima-1 SLV with the official KCNA picture (2nd and 3rd from left).[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

As for the recovered stage, is can not be the rocket's second stage as reported by South Korea for the following reasons:

• The visible cable raceway on the conical part does support the assumption that the part is an intertank section. From Unha to Hwasongpho-17, cable raceway is not visible on interstage section.

• There is no second stage engine in the conical part, not because it fell off during the impact at sea but because it is an intertank section.
During 1st stage and second stage separation procedure, the conical part should have been severed by explosive circumferential charge from the 2.8 meter first stage. But it is still attached to both the upper 2.3 m part and bottom 2.8 m section.

• Kerbal Space simulation youtube video shows that the recovered debris is the upper part of the first stage. The 2.8 meter section is simply too small to be the first stage, it would not provide enough delta-V. 1[web.archive.org] 2[archive.ph]

• Conclusion, the recovered debris is the first stage upper part, with the bottom and the 4 Paektusan-1D engines missing.
The first stage oxydizer and fuel tanks are of different diameters.

▲ Provisional CGI rendering of the Chollima-1 SLV compared to the Hwasongpho-17 ICBM, Unha SLV and CZ-2C.[web.archive.org]
2[archive.ph]
3[archive.ph]

The 2.3 meter diameter and 2.5 meter long interstage section is where the second stage engine was located before stage separation.
It gives out the dimension of the Paektusan-1B engine.
The second stage is not in the vicinity of the recovered first stage but outside of the NOTAM's designated impact zone, and much further south or east, since the high altitude vacuum engine was ignited and has burned a few seconds before failing.


The first stage having performed properly, this mission is rated as a 25% success.

Space is hard.

Wednesday is school day. For the next launch attempt, by choosing instead a weekend or holiday, under the direct guidance of General Kim Ju Ae, the Malligyong-1#2 《만리경 1호#2》 (10'000 Li Telescope 1 Unit 2, “万里镜－１”号#2) satellite should be placed into orbit by next year.


After several rocket engine static tests conducted at Sohae SLC to fix the problems affecting the unstable engine of the second stage and witnessed by satellite imagery, North Korea is ready to proceed with its 2nd orbital attempt with the powerful new CZ-2D class Chollima-1 SLV, and only 2 months after the failed maiden flight:

North Korea intends to launch satellite between Aug. 24 and 31: Kyodo

SEOUL, Aug. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has notified Japan of its plan to launch a satellite between Thursday and Aug. 31, according to a Japanese news report, as the country seeks to put a spy satellite into orbit following its failure in May.

The North informed Japan's coast guard of its plan to designate three maritime danger zones -- two of which are west of the Korean Peninsula and the other is to the east of the Philippines' island of Luzon, Japan's Kyodo News reported Tuesday.

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

Launch window from ８月２４日００００－８月３１日００００

|1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph] |3|[archive.ph] |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]▲ 【緊急情報】衛星ロケット打ち上げ 2023年08月22日 04:50

|1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph] |3|[archive.ph] |1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph]▲ Drop zone coordinates similar to the previous ones.

|1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph] |3|[archive.ph]▲ Speculative second stage (green) and third stage (yellow) dogleg manoeuvres.

Debriefing

KCNA Report on Accident in Second Launch of Military Reconnaissance Satellite

Pyongyang, August 24 (KCNA) -- The National Aerospace Development Administration (NADA) of the DPRK conducted the second launch of reconnaissance satellite Malligyong-1 aboard the new-type carrier rocket Chollima-1 at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground in Cholsan County of North Phyongan Province at dawn of August 24, Juche 112 (2023).

The flights of the first and second stages of the rocket were normal, but the launch failed due to an error in the emergency blasting system during the third-stage flight.

The NADA said that it would make clear in a short span of time the reason why the emergency blasting system was operated abnormally.

Explaining that the cause of the relevant accident is not a big problem in aspect of the reliability of cascade engines and the system, the NADA expressed the stand that it would conduct the third reconnaissance satellite launch in October after thoroughly probing the reason and taking measures. -0-

www.kcna.kp (Juche112.8.24.)

|1|[web.archive.org]
|2|[archive.ph]

No rain or clouds at Sohae around the time of North Korea's launch (3:50am DPRK Thursday; 18:50 Wednesday UTC).

The rocket failed due to accidental activation of self-destruct system during 3rd stage flight. The error does not concern the reliability of engines and the overall system. NADA to attempt a 3rd launch in October.

Getting to third stage is a big improvement. Question is, was the self destruct system autonomous flight system autonomous flight termination system or a remote system that was accidentally triggered?

Mission rating

☑ 1st stage: 25%
☑ 2nd stage: 50%
☒ 3rd stage: 75%
☒ satellite deployment: 100%

From the Japanese Ministry of Defence's provisional map, the 2nd stage dogleg manoeuver was successfully accomplished for the first time, as a new milestone for NADA.

No indication of the 3rd stage's heading, final orbital inclination angle or debris slash zone.

On the plus side, this time the South Koreans will not be able to retrieve the second stage, third stage and satellite, both lying at several kilometers deep in the abyss of the Pacific Ocean, without a Glomar Explorer pirate ship! A treasure time capsule awaiting future generations of explorers.

|1|[web.archive.org] |2|[archive.ph] |3|[archive.ph]▲ Japanese Ministry of Defence's provisional map. 2023

Commentary

Space is hard.

In May, the first stage having performed properly, the mission was rated at a 25% success.

This time, the second stage having performed properly, this mission's rating has increased to a 50% success.

The reported launch time at 3:50am Thursday was too early for benefiting from the direct guidance of General Kim Ju Ae.

Corrective measure can be taken though for the coming Malligyong-1#3 《만리경 1호#3》 (10'000 Li Telescope 1 Unit 2, “万里镜－１”号#3) satellite launch of October.