© A S☫heil presentation; First published 12 JAN 2023; Updated 12 JAN 2023

North Korea seems to have 80 to 90 nuclear warheads... Estimated 300 targeted

2023.01.12. 6:54 pm

Yonhap News Seoul Correspondent Ha Chae Rim. While North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered an "exponential" increase in nuclear warheads, analysts say that North Koreans are targeting 300 or so nuclear warheads, and that it already has 80 to 90.

Senior researcher Park Yong-han and active researcher Sang-kyu Lee of the Korea Institute for Defense Analysts said in a report titled “Estimation and Prospect of Nuclear Warheads in North Korea,” released on the 12th, that North Korea is estimated to have between 80 and 90 nuclear warheads.

Considering the annual enrichment capacity of the Yongbyon uranium enrichment facility (8,000 kg -SWU ), the amount of enrichment facilities held (up to 4), and the elapsed time since the disclosure of the uranium enrichment facility (12 years), the authors determined that weapons-grade highly enriched uranium was up to 2,044. Kg was estimated to have been gained.

This is the amount that can produce up to 80 rounds of uranium bombs.

In addition, the plutonium reserve is 68 to 78 kg, and it is estimated that 17 to 19 rounds can be produced from this.

Accordingly, it is estimated that the total number of uranium and plutonium nuclear warheads possessed is between 80 and 90.

If the facility continues to operate at this rate, the stock will increase to a maximum of 166 rounds by 2030.

These estimates of the holdings are more than the 15 to 60 units previously suggested by domestic and foreign researchers. The researchers explained that this is the result of applying the assumption that all uranium is used for nuclear weapons.

The report went on to predict that North Korea would increase its nuclear warhead arsenal to 300 in the future.

At the 6th plenary meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea at the end of last year, Chairman Kim Jong Un announced that he would "exponentially increase" the number of nuclear warheads, but did not suggest a specific scale. The assumption that if an all-out war breaks out, North Korea's nuclear forces could be reduced and some will be destroyed by strikes by the ROK-US alliance was also applied to the estimate.

The report describes the pattern of North Korean nuclear attacks as ▲ attacking only the Korean Peninsula to avoid retaliation from the United States ▲ avoiding attacks on urban areas such as Seoul ▲ carrying out only tactical nuclear (5-10 kt) attacks against military targets such as air bases and key command facilities ▲ conventional Warheads and mixed attacks ▲ Assuming an increase in the success rate through multiple nuclear strikes, the number of nuclear warheads North Korea needs to achieve its military objectives is derived in this way.

The report said, "(with existing facilities) North Korea can only possess 166 nuclear warheads by 2030." There is a possibility that the facility will be expanded," he observed.

The super-large multiple rocket launchers (600mm) (NATO codename KN-25), which North Korea claimed on the 1st of this month as an "offensive weapon capable of mounting tactical nuclear weapons with a range of range throughout South Korea," was expected to weigh 150-250kg and power 4-7kt considering its diameter.

The report pointed out that it may be difficult to guarantee a complete interception of a North Korean nuclear attack considering North Korea's nuclear arsenal, various launch platforms, and mass strike and 'mixed fire' tactics.

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With 300 nuclear warheads, North Korea would leap to the world's 4th nuclear superpower, behind China's 1'000 estimated warheads by 2030, and ahead of France's 290, UK's 195, Pakistan's 160, India's 150 and Israel's 90.